Forecasting enrollment in differential assessment programs using cellular automata

Urban growth models have been used for decades to forecast urban development in metropolitan areas. Since the 1990s cellular automata, with simple computational rules and an explicitly spatial architecture, have been heavily utilized in this endeavor. One such cellular-automata-based model, SLEUTH, has been successfully applied around the world to better understand and forecast not only urban growth but also other forms of land-use and land-cover change, but like other models must be fed important information about which particular lands in the modeled area are available for development. Some of these lands are in categories for the purpose of excluding urban growth that are difficult to quantify since their function is dictated by policy. One such category includes voluntary differential assessment programs, whereby farmers agree not to develop their lands in exchange for significant tax breaks. Since they are voluntary, today’s excluded lands may be available for development at some point in the future. Mapping the shifting mosaic of parcels that are enrolled in such programs allows this information to be used in modeling and forecasting. In this study, we added information about California’s Williamson Act into SLEUTH’s excluded layer for Tulare County. Assumptions about the voluntary differential assessments were used to create a sophisticated excluded layer that was fed into SLEUTH’s urban growth forecasting routine. The results demonstrate not only a successful execution of this method but also yielded high goodness-of-fit metrics for both the calibration of enrollment termination as well as the urban growth modeling itself.

Cultural perceptions of space and place in the South Florida *environment

Public opinion polls in the United States reveal that a great majority of Americans are aware and show concern about ecological issues and the need to preserve natural areas. In South Florida, natural resources have been subjected to enormous strain as the pressure to accommodate a growing population has led to rapid development. Suburbs have been built on areas that were once natural wetlands and farmlands, and the impact today shows a landscape where natural places have all but disappeared. This dissertation examines the intersection between the perceptions that individuals living in the South Florida region have with respect to the natural environment and local ecological problems with where their relationship to nature takes place. ^ The research is based upon both quantitative and qualitative data. The principal methodology used in this research is the ethnographic method, which employed the data gathering techniques of in-depth interviewing and participant observation. The objective of the qualitative portion of the study was to determine how people perceive and relate to their immediate environment. The quantitative portion of the study employed telephone survey data from the FIU/Florida Poll 2000. Data collected through this survey provided the basis to statistically test responses to the research questions. ^ The findings show that people in South Florida have a general idea of the relationship between the human population and the environment but very little knowledge of how they individually affect each other. The experience of private places and public spaces in everyday life permits people to compartmentalize cultural values and understandings of the natural world in separate cognitive schemas. The appreciation of the natural world has almost no connection to their personal sense of obligation to preserve the environment. That obligation is only felt in their home space even though the South Florida environment overall struggles desperately with water shortages, land encroachment, and a rapidly expanding human population whose activities continuously aggravate an already delicate natural balance. ^

Fractal analysis of flocs formed in edible oil -water emulsions by image analysis techniques

Edible oil is an important contaminant in water and wastewater. Oil droplets smaller than 40 μm may remain in effluent as an emulsion and combine with other contaminants in water. Coagulation/flocculation processes are used to remove oil droplets from water and wastewater. By adding a polymer at proper dose, small oil droplets can be flocculated and separated from water. The purpose of this study was to characterize and analyze the morphology of flocs and floc formation in edible oil-water emulsions by using microscopic image analysis techniques. The fractal dimension, concentration of polymer, effect of pH and temperature are investigated and analyzed to develop a fractal model of the flocs. Three types of edible oil (corn, olive, and sunflower oil) at concentrations of 600 ppm (by volume) were used to determine the optimum polymer dosage and effect of pH and temperature. To find the optimum polymer dose, polymer was added to the oil-water emulsions at concentration of 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 3.0 and 3.5 ppm (by volume). The clearest supernatants obtained from flocculation of corn, olive, and sunflower oil were achieved at polymer dosage of 3.0 ppm producing turbidities of 4.52, 12.90, and 13.10 NTU, respectively. This concentration of polymer was subsequently used to study the effect of pH and temperature on flocculation. The effect of pH was studied at pH 5, 7, 9, and 11 at 30°C. Microscopic image analysis was used to investigate the morphology of flocs in terms of fractal dimension, radius of oil droplets trapped in floc, floc size, and histograms of oil droplet distribution. Fractal dimension indicates the density of oil droplets captured in flocs. By comparison of fractal dimensions, pH was found to be one of the most important factors controlling droplet flocculation. Neutral pH or pH 7 showed the highest degree of flocculation, while acidic (pH 5) and basic pH (pH 9 and pH 11) showed low efficiency of flocculation. The fractal dimensions achieved from flocculation of corn, olive, and sunflower oil at pH 7 and temperature 30°C were 1.2763, 1.3592, and 1.4413, respectively. The effect of temperature was explored at temperatures 20°, 30°, and 40°C and pH 7. The results of flocculation of oil at pH 7 and different temperatures revealed that temperature significantly affected flocculation. The fractal dimension of flocs formed in corn, olive and sunflower oil emulsion at pH 7 and temperature 20°, 30°, and 40°C were 1.82, 1.28, 1.29, 1.62, 1.36, 1.42, 1.36, 1.44, and 1.28, respectively. After comparison of fractal dimension, radius of oil droplets captured, and floc length in each oil type, the optimal flocculation temperature was determined to be 30°C. ^

Space-for-Time Substitution Works in Everglades Ecological Forecasting Models

Space-for-time substitution is often used in predictive models because long-term time-series data are not available. Critics of this method suggest factors other than the target driver may affect ecosystem response and could vary spatially, producing misleading results. Monitoring data from the Florida Everglades were used to test whether spatial data can be substituted for temporal data in forecasting models. Spatial models that predicted bluefin killifish (Lucania goodei) population response to a drying event performed comparably and sometimes better than temporal models. Models worked best when results were not extrapolated beyond the range of variation encompassed by the original dataset. These results were compared to other studies to determine whether ecosystem features influence whether space-for-time substitution is feasible. Taken in the context of other studies, these results suggest space-for-time substitution may work best in ecosystems with low beta-diversity, high connectivity between sites, and small lag in organismal response to the driver variable.

Using Optical Properties to Quantify Fringe Mangrove Inputs to the Dissolved Organic Matter (DOM) Pool in a Subtropical Estuary

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration and dissolved organic matter (DOM) optical properties were analyzed along two estuarine river transects during the wet and dry seasons to better understand DOM dynamics and quantify mangrove inputs. A tidal study was performed to assess the impacts of tidal pumping on DOM transport. DOM in the estuaries showed non-conservative mixing indicative of mangrove-derived inputs. Similarly, fluorescence data suggest that some terrestrial humic-like components showed non-conservative behavior. An Everglades freshwater-derived fluorescent component, which is associated with soil inputs from the Northern Everglades, behaved conservatively. During the dry season, a protein-like component behaved conservatively until the mid-salinity range when non-conservative behavior due to degradation and/or loss was observed. The tidal study data suggests mangrove porewater inputs to the rivers following low tide. The differences in quantity of DOM exported by the Shark and Harney Rivers imply that geomorphology and tidal hydrology may be a dominant factor controlling the amount of DOM exported from the mangrove ecotone, where up to 21 % of the DOC is mangrove-derived. Additionally, nutrient concentrations and other temporal factors may control DOM export from the mangroves, particularly for the microbially derived fluorescent components, contributing to the seasonal differences. The wet and dry season fluxes of mangrove DOM from the Shark River is estimated as 0.27 × 109 mg C d−1 and 0.075 × 109 mg C d−1, respectively, and the Harney River is estimated as 1.9 × 109 mg C d−1 and 0.20 × 109 mg C d−1.

Allocation of Biomass and Net Primary Productivity of Mangrove Forests along Environmental Gradients in the Florida Coastal Everglades, USA

Vegetation patterns of mangroves in the Florida Coastal Everglades (FCE) result from the interaction of environmental gradients and natural disturbances (i.e., hurricanes), creating an array of distinct riverine and scrub mangroves across the landscape. We investigated how landscape patterns of biomass and total net primary productivity (NPPT), including allocation in above- and below-ground mangrove components, vary inter-annually (2001–2004) across gradients in soil properties and hydroperiod in two distinct FCE basins: Shark River Estuary and Taylor River Slough. We propose that the allocation of belowground biomass and productivity (NPPB) relative to aboveground allocation is greater in regions with P limitation and permanent flooding. Porewater sulfide was significantly higher in Taylor River (1.2 ± 0.3 mM) compared to Shark River (0.1 ± 0.03 mM) indicating the lack of a tidal signature and more permanent flooding in this basin. There was a decrease in soil P density and corresponding increase in soil N:P from the mouth (28) to upstream locations (46–105) in Shark River that was consistent with previous results in this region. Taylor River sites showed the highest P limitation (soil N:P > 60). Average NPPT was double in higher P environments (17.0 ± 1.1 Mg ha−1 yr−1) compared to lower P regions (8.3 ± 0.3 Mg ha−1 yr−1). Root biomass to aboveground wood biomass (BGB:AWB) ratio was 17 times higher in P-limited environments demonstrating the allocation strategies of mangroves under resource limitation. Riverine mangroves allocated most of the NPPT to aboveground (69%) while scrub mangroves showed the highest allocation to belowground (58%). The total production to biomass (P:B) ratios were lower in Shark River sites (0.11 yr−1); whereas in Taylor River sites P:B ratios were higher and more variable (0.13–0.24 yr−1). Our results suggest that the interaction of lower P availability in Taylor River relative to Shark River basin, along with higher sulfide and permanent flooding account for higher allocation of belowground biomass and production, at expenses of aboveground growth and wood biomass. These distinct patterns of carbon partitioning between riverine and scrub mangroves in response to environmental stress support our hypothesis that belowground allocation is a significant contribution to soil carbon storage in forested wetlands across FCE, particularly in P-limited scrub mangroves. Elucidating these biomass strategies will improve analysis of carbon budgets (storage and production) in neotropical mangroves and understanding what conditions lead to net carbon sinks in the tropical coastal zone.

Distribution of Diatoms Along Environmental Gradients in the Charlotte Harbor, Florida (USA), Estuary and Its Watershed: Implications for Bioassessment of Salinity and Nutrient Concentrations

The relative abundance of diatom species in different habitats can be used as a tool to infer prior environmental conditions and evaluate management decisions that influence habitat quality. Diatom distribution patterns were examined to characterize relationships between assemblage composition and environmental gradients in a subtropical estuarine watershed. We identified environmental correlates of diatom distribution patterns across the Charlotte Harbor, Florida, watershed; evaluated differences among three major river drainages; and determined how accurately local environmental conditions can be predicted using inference models based on diatom assemblages. Sampling locations ranged from freshwater to marine (0.1–37.2 ppt salinity) and spanned broad nutrient concentration gradients. Salinity was the predominant driver of difference among diatom assemblages across the watershed, but other environmental variables had stronger correlations with assemblages within the subregions of the three rivers and harbor. Eighteen indicator taxa were significantly affiliated with subregions. Relationships between diatom taxon distributions and salinity, distance from the harbor, total phosphorus (TP), and total nitrogen (TN) were evaluated to determine the utility of diatom assemblages to predict environmental values using a weighted averaging-regression approach. Diatom-based inferences of these variables were strong (salinity R 2 = 0.96; distance R 2 = 0.93; TN R 2 = 0.83; TP R 2 = 0.83). Diatom assemblages provide reliable estimates of environmental parameters on different spatial scales across the watershed. Because many coastal diatom taxa are ubiquitous, the diatom training sets provided here should enable diatom-based environmental reconstructions in subtropical estuaries that are being rapidly altered by land and water use changes and sea level rise.

Effect of Hydrologic Restoration on the Habitat of The Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow, Annual Report of 2002-2003

After developing field sampling protocols and making a series of consultations with investigators involved in research in CSSS habitat, we determined that vegetationhydrology interactions within this landscape are best sampled at a combination of scales. At the finer scale, we decided to sample at 100 m intervals along transects that cross the range of habitats present, and at the coarser scale, to conduct an extensive survey of vegetation at sites of known sparrow density dispersed throughout the range of the CSSS. We initiated sampling in the first week of January 2003 and continued it through the last week of May. During this period, we established 6 transects, one in each CSSS subpopulation, completed topographic survey along the Transects A, C, D, and F, and sampled herb and shrub stratum vegetation, soil depth and periphyton along Transects A, and at 179 census points. We also conducted topographic surveys and completed vegetation and soil depth sampling along two of five transects used by ENP researchers for monitoring long-term vegetation change in Taylor Slough. We analyzed the data by summarizing the compositional and structural measures and by using cluster analysis, ordination, weighted averaging regression, and weighted averaging calibration. The mean elevation of transects decreased from north to south, and Transect F had greater variation than other transects. We identified eight vegetation assemblages that can be grouped into two broad categories, ‘wet prairie’ and ‘marsh’. In the 2003 survey, wet prairies were most dominant in the northeastern sub-populations, and had shorter inferred-hydroperiod, higher species richness and shallower soils than marshes, which were common in Subpopulations A, D, and the southernmost regions of Sub-population B. Most of the sites at which birds were observed during 2001 or 2002 had an inferred-hydroperiod of 120-150 days, while no birds were observed at sites with an inferred-hydroperiod less than 120 days or more than 300 days. Management-induced water level changes in Taylor Slought during the 1980’s and 1990’s appeared to elicit parallel changes in vegetation. The results described in detail in the following pages serve as a basis for evaluating and modifying, if necessary, the sampling design and analytical techniques to be used in the next three years of the project.

Hydrologic Restoration of the Biscayne Bay Coastal Wetlands: mosquito and drainage ditch inventory and recommendations

The management and restoration of the Biscayne Bay Coastal Wetlands (BBCW) is a complex issue. Unlike other natural areas under the supervision of the National Park System, the BBCW had endured many years of neglect and abuse by homesteaders who, prior to the establishment of Biscayne National Monument in 1968, had free reign of the area and tried to farm and develop the land by ditching and infilling. Furthermore, public works projects, dating back to the early 1900’s for mosquito control, land reclamation, and storm surge protection along with homesteader activities have combined to compartmentalize the coastal wetlands of present Biscayne National Park and adjacent marshes.

Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Habitat – Vegetation Monitoring: FY 2009 - Final Report

This document summarizes the activities that were accomplished in FY 2009 on the research project “Cape Sable seaside sparrow habitat – Vegetation Monitoring”, a collaborative effort among the US Army Corps of Engineers, Florida International University, and the US Geological Survey. The major activities in 2009 included field work, data analysis and presentations. The results of 2009 field work were presented at the 4th International Congress of Fire Ecology and Management, Savannah, GA from November 30 to Dec 5, 2009 and at the Cape Sable seaside sparrow (CSSS) Fire Meeting, held at the Krome Center, Homestead, FL on December 8, 2009. Field sampling was conducted between March 23 and June 3, 2009, during which we resurveyed 234 sites: 191 Census sites, 3 sites on Transect B, 7 sites on Transect D, and 33 sites on Transect F. The number of sites sampled in 2009 was higher than in any previous year, primarily because a large number of sites burned in Mustang Corner fire and three other wild fires in 2008 were included in 2009 sampling. At all sites surveyed in 2009, we recorded structural and compositional vegetation parameters following the methods used in previous years (2003-2008) and tagged shrubs and trees (woody plants > 1 m) present in the 5 x 60 m plots. In addition, for the first time, we measured height of sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense) stubble in the compositional plots at the sites that were burned in 2008. Field data were entered by field crews, and were thoroughly checked by Jay Sah (Co-PI) to ensure that the data were complete, correct, and compliant with sampling methodologies. The data are stored under a project folder on a shared network drive maintained by the Southeast Environmental Research Center (SERC) at FIU. The shared network drive is backed up daily.

Resampling of Permanent Pine Rockland Vegetation Plots on Big Pine Key

The pine rocklands of South Florida are characterized by an herbaceous flora with many narrowly endemic taxa, a diverse shrub layer containing several palms and numerous tropical hardwoods, and an overstory of south Florida slash pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa). Fire has been considered as an important environmental factor for these ecosystems, since in the absence of fire these pine forests are replaced by dense hardwood communities, resulting in loss of the characteristic pineland herb flora. Hence, in the Florida Keys pine forests, prescribed fire has been used since the creation of the National Key Deer Refuge. However, such prescribed burns were conducted in the Refuge mainly for fuel reduction, without much consideration of ecological factors. The USGS and Florida International University conducted a research study for four years, from 1998 to 2001, the objective of which was to document the response of pine rockland vegetation to a range of fire management options and to provide Fish and Wildlife Service and other land managers with information useful in deciding when and where to burn to perpetuate these unique pine forests. This study is described in detail in Snyder et al. (2005).

Changes of Soil Biogeochemistry under Native and Exotic Plants Species

Invasive plant species are major threats to the biodiversity and ecosystem stability. The purpose of this study is to understand the impacts of invasive plants on soil nutrient cycling and ecological functions. Soil samples were collected from rhizosphere and non-rhizosphere of both native and exotic plants from three genera, Lantana, Ficus and Schinus, at Tree Tops Park in South Florida, USA. Experimental results showed that the cultivable bacterial population in the soil under Brazilian pepper (invasive Schinus) was approximately ten times greater than all other plants. Also, Brazilian pepper lived under conditions of significantly lower available phosphorus but higher phosphatase activities than other sampled sites. Moreover, the respiration rates and soil macronutrients in rhizosphere soils of exotic plants were significantly higher than those of the natives (Phosphorus, p=0.034; Total Nitrogen, p=0.0067; Total Carbon, p=0.0243). Overall, the soil biogeochemical status under invasive plants was different from those of the natives.

Rainfall variability in the upper Napo River Basin, Ecuadorian Amazon

The purpose of this research was to investigate the influence of elevation and other terrain characteristics over the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall. A comparative analysis was conducted between several methods of spatial interpolations using mean monthly precipitation values in order to select the best. Following those previous results it was possible to fit an Artificial Neural Network model for interpolation of monthly precipitation values for a period of 20 years, with input values such as longitude, latitude, elevation, four geomorphologic characteristics and anchored by seven weather stations, it reached a high correlation coefficient (r=0.85). This research demonstrated a strong influence of elevation and other geomorphologic variables over the spatial distribution of precipitation and the agreement that there are nonlinear relationships. This model will be used to fill gaps in time-series of monthly precipitation, and to generate maps of spatial distribution of monthly precipitation at a resolution of 1km2.

Leaf Functional Traits and Forest Structure of Tropical Dry Forest Species Along a Rainfall Gradient in Florida and Puerto Rico

This study examined how different rainfall regimes affect a set of leaf functional traits related to plant stress and forest structure in tropical dry forest (TDF) species on limestone substrate. One hundred fifty eight individuals of four tree species were sampled in six ecological sites in south Florida and Puerto Rico, ranging in mean annual rainfall from 858 to 1933 mm yr-1. Leaf nitrogen content, specific leaf area (SLA), and N:P ratio of evergreen species, but not deciduous species, responded positively to increasing rainfall. Phosphorus content was unaffected in both groups. Canopy height and basal area reached maxima of 10.3 m and 31.4 m2 ha-1, respectively, at 1168 mm annual rainfall. Leaf traits reflected soil properties only to a small extent. This led us to the conclusion that water is a major limiting factor in TDF and some species that comprise TDF ecosystems are limited by nitrogen in limestone sites with less than ~1012 mm rainfall, but organismal, biological and/or abiotic forces other than rainfall control forest structure in moister sites.

The non-timber forest products sector in nepal : policy issues in plant conservation and utilization

The non-timber forest products (NTFPs) sector in Nepal is being promoted with the concept of sustainable management as articulated by the Convention on Biological Diversity. To promote and regulate this sector, Nepal adopted the Herbs and NTFP Development Policy in 2004. The goal of this thesis was to assess the effectiveness of this policy along with other forestry and natural resource policies in Nepal concerning the conservation and sustainable use of NTFPs. I conducted open-ended semi-structured interviews with 28 key informants in summer 2006 in Nepal where I also collected relevant documents and publications. I did qualitative analysis of data obtained from interviews and document review. The research found many important issues that need to be addressed to promote the NTFP sector as envisioned by the Government of Nepal. The findings of this research will help to further implement the policy and promote the NTFP sector through sustainable management practices.