Essays on emissions trading markets

This dissertation is a collection of three economics essays on different aspects of carbon emission trading markets. The first essay analyzes the dynamic optimal emission control strategies of two nations. With a potential to become the largest buyer under the Kyoto Protocol, the US is assumed to be a monopsony, whereas with a large number of tradable permits on hand Russia is assumed to be a monopoly. Optimal costs of emission control programs are estimated for both the countries under four different market scenarios: non-cooperative no trade, US monopsony, Russia monopoly, and cooperative trading. The US monopsony scenario is found to be the most Pareto cost efficient. The Pareto efficient outcome, however, would require the US to make side payments to Russia, which will even out the differences in the cost savings from cooperative behavior. The second essay analyzes the price dynamics of the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), a voluntary emissions trading market. By examining the volatility in market returns using AR-GARCH and Markov switching models, the study associates the market price fluctuations with two different political regimes of the US government. Further, the study also identifies a high volatility in the returns few months before the market collapse. Three possible regulatory and market-based forces are identified as probable causes of market volatility and its ultimate collapse. Organizers of other voluntary markets in the US and worldwide may closely watch for these regime switching forces in order to overcome emission market crashes. The third essay compares excess skewness and kurtosis in carbon prices between CCX and EU ETS (European Union Emission Trading Scheme) Phase I and II markets, by examining the tail behavior when market expectations exceed the threshold level. Dynamic extreme value theory is used to find out the mean price exceedence of the threshold levels and estimate the risk loss. The calculated risk measures suggest that CCX and EU ETS Phase I are extremely immature markets for a risk investor, whereas EU ETS Phase II is a more stable market that could develop as a mature carbon market in future years.

Essays on Emissions Trading Markets

This dissertation is a collection of three economics essays on different aspects of carbon emission trading markets. The first essay analyzes the dynamic optimal emission control strategies of two nations. With a potential to become the largest buyer under the Kyoto Protocol, the US is assumed to be a monopsony, whereas with a large number of tradable permits on hand Russia is assumed to be a monopoly. Optimal costs of emission control programs are estimated for both the countries under four different market scenarios: non-cooperative no trade, US monopsony, Russia monopoly, and cooperative trading. The US monopsony scenario is found to be the most Pareto cost efficient. The Pareto efficient outcome, however, would require the US to make side payments to Russia, which will even out the differences in the cost savings from cooperative behavior. The second essay analyzes the price dynamics of the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), a voluntary emissions trading market. By examining the volatility in market returns using AR-GARCH and Markov switching models, the study associates the market price fluctuations with two different political regimes of the US government. Further, the study also identifies a high volatility in the returns few months before the market collapse. Three possible regulatory and market-based forces are identified as probable causes of market volatility and its ultimate collapse. Organizers of other voluntary markets in the US and worldwide may closely watch for these regime switching forces in order to overcome emission market crashes. The third essay compares excess skewness and kurtosis in carbon prices between CCX and EU ETS (European Union Emission Trading Scheme) Phase I and II markets, by examining the tail behavior when market expectations exceed the threshold level. Dynamic extreme value theory is used to find out the mean price exceedence of the threshold levels and estimate the risk loss. The calculated risk measures suggest that CCX and EU ETS Phase I are extremely immature markets for a risk investor, whereas EU ETS Phase II is a more stable market that could develop as a mature carbon market in future years.

Development of risk based treatability and engineering measures for reducing exposure to lead contaminated media in the Miami inner city, Florida

A major consequence of contamination at the local level’s population as it relates to environmental health and environmental engineering is childhood lead poisoning. Environmental contamination is one of the pressing environmental concerns facing the world today. Current approaches often focus on large contaminated industrial size sites that are designated by regulatory agencies for site remediation. Prior to this study, there were no known published studies conducted at the local and smaller scale, such as neighborhoods, where often much of the contamination is present to remediate. An environmental health study of local lead-poisoning data in Liberty City, Little Haiti and eastern Little Havana in Miami-Dade County, Florida accounted for a disproportionately high number of the county’s reported childhood lead poisoning cases. An engineering system was developed and designed for a comprehensive risk management methodology that is distinctively applicable to the geographical and environmental conditions of Miami-Dade County, Florida. Furthermore, a scientific approach for interpreting environmental health concerns, while involving detailed environmental engineering control measures and methods for site remediation in contained media was developed for implementation. Test samples were obtained from residents and sites in those specific communities in Miami-Dade County, Florida (Gasana and Chamorro 2002). Currently lead does not have an Oral Assessment, Inhalation Assessment, and Oral Slope Factor; variables that are required to run a quantitative risk assessment. However, various institutional controls from federal agencies’ standards and regulation for contaminated lead in media yield adequate maximum concentration limits (MCLs). For this study an MCL of .0015 (mg/L) was used. A risk management approach concerning contaminated media involving lead demonstrates that the linkage of environmental health and environmental engineering can yield a feasible solution.

Social support, risk, and adjustment of immigrant preadolescents

The current study was designed to explore the salience of social support, immigrant status, and risk in middle childhood and early adolescence across two time periods as indicated by measures of school adjustment and well-being. Participants included 691 children of public elementary schools in grades 4 and 6 who were interviewed in 1997 (Time 1) and reinterviewed two years later (Time 2); 539 were U.S.-born, and 152 were foreign-born. ^ Repeated measures multivariate analyses of variance (MANOVA's) were conducted to assess the effects of immigrant status and risk on total support, well-being, and school adjustment from Time 1 to Time 2. Follow-up analyses, including Student-Newman-Keuls post hoc tests, were used to test the significance of the differences among the means of support categories (low and high), immigrant status (U.S. born and non-U.S. born), risk (low and high) and time (time 1 and time 2). ^ Results showed that immigrant participants in the high risk group reported significantly lower levels of support than their peers. Further, children of low risk at Time 2 indicated the highest levels of support. Second, immigrant preadolescents, preadolescents who reported low levels of social support, and preadolescents of the high risk reported lower levels of emotional well-being. There was also an interaction of support by risk by time, indicating that children who are at risk and had low levels of social support reported more emotional problems at Time 1. Finally, preadolescents who are at risk and preadolescents who reported lower levels of support were more likely to show school adaptation problems. Findings from this study highlight the importance of a multivariable approach to the study of support, emotional adjustment, and academic adjustment of immigrant preadolescents. ^

Risk factors that predict maladaptive outcomes among sexually abused girls presenting for services at a community agency

The purpose of this study was to determine which factors predicted maladaptive outcomes in sexually abused children. Key factors were aggregated into four categories: abuse characteristics risk factors, individual-level risk factors, family disruption risk factors, and social disruption risk factors. It was hypothesized that (a) individual-level risk factors (e.g., school performance, child alcohol/substance abuse) and (b) abuse characteristics risk factors (e.g., longer duration/frequency of abuse, use of force/threats of force, intrafamilial abuse) would predict higher levels of trauma symptoms. Furthermore, it was hypothesized that (a) family disruption risk factors (e.g., family alcohol/substance use, family psychopathology) and (b) social disruption risk factors (e.g., parental divorce, homelessness, witnessing homicide or violence) would moderate the impact of prior sexual abuse and predict higher levels of trauma symptoms. ^ The participants were 110 female children (5 to 18 years old) presenting for treatment for sexual abuse at a community agency (The Journey Institute) in Miami, Florida. This study conducted a retrospective analysis of an archival data set collected over a three-year period (1998–2001). The measures completed upon intake included The Journey Psychosocial Assessment and The Trauma Symptom Checklist for Children (TSCC; Briere, 1996). Using Pearson correlations and hierarchical multiple regression analysis, this study found that abuse characteristics risk factors and individual-level risk factors were predictive of maladaptive outcomes in this sample of sexually abused girls. However, no moderating effects were found for family disruption risk factors or social disruption risk factors. Therefore, the results of these analyses provided support for the contention that abuse characteristics and individual-level risk factors were appropriate targets for treatment for sexually abused girls. Moreover, limitations of this study, implications for treatment, and directions for future research were discussed. ^

Risk factors of coronary heart disease and correlates of type 2 diabetes among Cuban Americans

Cuban Americans, a minority Hispanic subgroup, have a high prevalence of type 2 diabetes. Persons with diabetes experience a higher rate of coronary heart disease (CHD) compared to those without diabetes. The objectives of the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Disease (NIDDK) are to investigate the risk factors of CHD and the etiology of diabetes among diabetics of minority ethnic populations. No information is available on the etiology of CHD risks for Cuban Americans. ^ This cross-sectional study compared Cuban Americans with (N = 79) and without (N = 80) type 2 diabetes residing in South Florida. Data on risk factors of CHD and type 2 diabetes were collected using sociodemographics, smoking habit, Rose Angina, Modifiable Activity, and Willet's food frequency questionnaires. Anthropometrics and blood pressure (BP) were recorded. Glucose, glycated hemoglobin, lipid profile, homocysteine, and C-reactive protein were assessed in fasting blood. ^ Diabetics reported a significantly higher rate of angina symptoms than non-diabetics (P = 0.008). After adjusting for age and gender, diabetics had significantly (P < 0.001) larger waist circumference and higher systolic BP than non-diabetics. There was no significant difference in major nutrient intakes between the groups. One quarter of subjects, both diabetics and non-diabetics, exceeded the intake of percent calories from total fat and almost 60% had cholesterol intake >200 mg/d and more than 60% had fiber intake <20 gm/d. The pattern of physical activity did not differ between groups though, it was much below the recommended level. After adjusting for age and gender, diabetics had significantly (P < 0.001) higher levels of blood glucose, glycated hemoglobin, triglycerides, and homocysteine than non-diabetics. In contrast, diabetics had significantly (P < 0.01) lower levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C). ^ Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that increasing age, male gender, large waist circumference, lack of acculturation, and high levels of triglycerides were independent risk factors of type 2 diabetes. In contrast, moderate alcohol consumption conferred protection against diabetes. ^ The study identified several risk factors of CHD and diabetes among Cuban Americans. Health care providers are encouraged to practice ethno-specific preventive measures to lower the burden of CHD and diabetes in Cuban Americans. ^

Effects of adolescent depressive symptoms, pubertal development, and interpersonal relationship satisfaction on sexual risk behaviors in adolescent romantic couples

This study examined links between adolescent depressive symptoms, actual pubertal development, perceived pubertal timing relative to one’s peers, adolescent-maternal relationship satisfaction, and couple sexual behavior. Assessments of these variables were made on each couple member separately and then these variables were used to predict the sexual activity of the couple. Participants were drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health; Bearman et al., 1997; Udry, 1997) data set (N = 20,088; aged 12–18 years). Dimensions of adolescent romantic experiences using the total sample were described and then a subsample of romantically paired adolescents ( n = 1,252) were used to test a risk and protective model for predicting couple sexual behavior using the factors noted above. Relevant measures from the Wave 1 Add Health measures were used. Most of the items used in Add Health to assess romantic relationship experiences, adolescent depressive symptoms, pubertal development (actual and perceived), adolescent-maternal relationship satisfaction, and couple sexual behavior were drawn from other national surveys or from scales with well documented psychometric properties. Results demonstrated that romantic relationships are part of most adolescents’ lives and that adolescents’ experiences with these relationships differ markedly by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Further, each respective couple member’s pubertal development, perceived pubertal timing, and maternal relationship satisfaction were useful in predicting sexual risk-promoting and risk-reducing behaviors in adolescent romantic couples. Findings in this dissertation represent an initial step toward evaluating explanatory models of adolescent couple sexual behavior.

Risk factors of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases among Jamaican adolescents

Purpose. The purpose of the study was to examine Jamaican adolescents in a school setting, for risk factors of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Methods. A descriptive epidemiological cross-sectional study of 276 Jamaican adolescents (112 males and 164 females) ages 14-19 years (15.6±1.2), randomly selected from grades 9-12 from ten high schools on the island. Thirteen risk factors were examined. Risk factors were compared with BMI levels and demographics. A sub-study validated finger prick testing of fasting blood glucose, total cholesterol, and HbA1c versus venous testing in 59 subjects. Results. Prevalence of overweight was 33.0% (n=91) with mean BMI of 23.74±7.74. Approximately 66.7% of subjects reported ≥ 3 risk factors. The number of T2DM and CVDs risk factors increased for subjects with BMI above 25. One third of the overweight subjects were classified with the metabolic syndrome. High BMI was associated with high waist circumference (r = .767, p < .01), high waist-to-hip ratio (r = .180, p < .01), presence of Acanthosis Nigricans (r = .657, p < .01), high total cholesterol (r = .158, p < .01), family history of T2DM (r = .157, p < .01), and hypertension (r = .422, p < .01). Regression analyses significantly predicted gender and physical activity (p < .001), and total number of risk factors for T2DM and CVDs (p < .001). Paired samples t-tests revealed no significant differences between methods of testing for TC and HbA1c (p < .01) but not for FBG (p > .05). Percentage bias for the methods of blood testing met the reference standards for fasting blood glucose but not for total cholesterol and HbA1c. Bland Altman tests of agreement between the two methods indicated good agreement for all three tests. Conclusion. Jamaican adolescents are at high risk for T2DM and CVDs as seen in other study populations. Effective programs to prevent T2DM and CVDs are needed. Family history of diseases, anthropometric measures, and gender identified more subjects at risk than did the biochemical measures. Comparison between finger prick and venous blood methods suggested that finger prick is an adequate method to screen for risk factors in children and adolescents.

Physiological performance measures and tolerance limits of estuarine indicator species in south Florida

Current water management practices in South Florida have negatively impacted many species inhabiting Florida Bay. Variable and high salinity has been identified as a key stressor in these estuaries. The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) includes water redistribution projects that will restore natural freshwater flows to northeastern Florida Bay. My studies focused on the following central theme and hypotheses: Biological performance measures (i.e., growth, reproduction, survival), behavior (i.e., habitat preference and locomotor behavior) and diversity of estuarine fish will be controlled by changes in salinity and water quality that will occur as a result of the restoration of freshwater flow to the bay. A series of acute and subchronic physiological toxicity studies were conducted to determine the effects of salinity changes on the life stages (embryo/larval, juvenile, adult) and fecundity of four native estuarine fish (Cyprinodon variegatus, Floridichthys carpio, Poecilia latipinna, and Gambusia holbrooki). Fish were exposed to a range of salinity concentrations (freshwater to hypersaline) based on salinity profiles in the study areas. Growth (length, weight) and survival were measured. Salinity trials included both rapid and gradual change events. Results show negative effects of acute, abrupt salinity changes on fish survival, development and reproductive success as a result of salinity stress. Other studies targeted reproduction and critical embryo-larval/neonate development as key areas for detecting long-term population effects of salinity change in Florida Bay. Adults of C. variegates and P. latipinna were also examined for behavioral responses to pulsed salinity changes. These responses include changes in swimming performance, locomotor behavior and zone preference. Finally, an ecological risk assessment was conducted for adverse salinity conditions in northeastern Florida Bay. Using the U.S. EPA's framework, the risk to estuarine fish species diversity was assessed against regional salinity profiles from a 17-year database. Based on the risk assessment, target salinity profiles for these areas are recommended for managers.^

Examination of the impact of personality, social, and cognitive factors on the co-occurrence of health risk behaviors among multi-problem youth: The utility of an integrative framework

Research has identified a number of putative risk factors that places adolescents at incrementally higher risk for involvement in alcohol and other drug (AOD) use and sexual risk behaviors (SRBs). Such factors include personality characteristics such as sensation-seeking, cognitive factors such as positive expectancies and inhibition conflict as well as peer norm processes. The current study was guided by a conceptual perspective that support the notion that an integrative framework that includes multi-level factors has significant explanatory value for understanding processes associated with the co-occurrence of AOD use and sexual risk behavior outcomes. This study evaluated simultaneously the mediating role of AOD-sex related expectancies and inhibition conflict on antecedents of AOD use and SRBs including sexual sensation-seeking and peer norms for condom use.^ The sample was drawn from the Enhancing My Personal Options While Evaluating Risk (EMPOWER: Jonathan Tubman, PI), data set (N = 396; aged 12-18 years). Measures used in the study included Sexual Sensation-Seeking Scale, Inhibition Conflict for Condom Use, Risky Sex Scale. All relevant measures had well-documented psychometric properties. A global assessment of alcohol, drug use and sexual risk behaviors was used.^ Results demonstrated that AOD-sex related expectancies mediated the influence of sexual sensation-seeking on the co-occurrence of alcohol and other drug use and sexual risk behaviors. The evaluation of the integrative model also revealed that sexual sensation-seeking was positively associated with peer norms for condom use. Also, peer norms predicted inhibition conflict among this sample of multi-problem youth. ^ This dissertation research identified mechanisms of risk and protection associated with the co-occurrence of AOD use and SRBs among a multi-problem sample of adolescents receiving treatment for alcohol or drug use and related problems. This study is informative for adolescent-serving programs that address those individual and contextual characteristics that enhance treatment efficacy and effectiveness among adolescents receiving substance use and related problems services.^

Cardiovascular risk factors in Turkish immigrants with type 2 diabetes living in the Netherlands

The cross sectional study investigated the association of tobacco smoke, vitamin D status, anthropometric parameters, and kidney function in Turkish immigrants with type 2 diabetes (T2D) living in the Netherlands. Study sample included a total of 110 participants aged 30 years and older (males= 46; females= 64). Serum cotinine, a biomarker for smoke exposure, was measured with a solid-phase competitive chemiluminescent immunoassay. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] was determined by electrochemiluminescence immunoassay (ECLIA). Measures of obesity including: body weight, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and hip circumference (HC) were measured. Waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) were calculated. Urine albumin was measured by immunoturbidimetric assay. Urine creatinine was determined using the Jaffe method. All statistical analyses were performed using SPSS, version 19.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). Independent samples t-test, chi-squared tests, multiple linear regression and logistic regression analysis were used. Cotinine levels were positively associated with cholesterol to HDL ratio and atherosclerosis-index. Serum 25(OH)D levels were negatively associated with diastolic blood pressure. Gender-specific associations between anthropometric measures and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels were observed. Hs-CRP was positively associated with WC and WHR in males and WHtR in females. Microalbuminuria (MAU), as determined by albumin-to-creatinine ratio, was present in 21% of the Turkish immigrants with T2D. Participants with hypertension were 6.58 times more likely (adjusted odds ratio) to have positive MAU as compared to normotensive participants. Our findings indicate that serum cotinine, 25(OH)D, hs-CRP, and MAU may be assessed as a standard of care for T2D management in the Turkish immigrant population. Further research should be conducted following cohorts to determine the effects of these biomarkers on CVD morbidity and mortality.

Comparison of Common Field/Clinical Measures to Standard Laboratory Measures of Hydration Status

Context: Accurately determining hydration status is a preventative measure for exertional heat illnesses (EHI). Objective: To determine the validity of various field measures of urine specific gravity (Usg) compared to laboratory instruments. Design: Observational research design to compare measures of hydration status: urine reagent strips (URS) and a urine color (Ucol) chart to a refractometer. Setting: We utilized the athletic training room of a Division I-A collegiate American football team. Participants: Trial 1 involved urine samples of 69 veteran football players (age=20.1+1.2yr; body mass=229.7+44.4lb; height=72.2+2.1in). Trial 2 involved samples from 5 football players (age=20.4+0.5yr; body mass=261.4+39.2lb; height=72.3+2.3in). Interventions: We administered the Heat Illness Index Score (HIIS) Risk Assessment, to identify athletes at-risk for EHI (Trial 1). For individuals “at-risk” (Trial 2), we collected urine samples before and after 15 days of pre-season “two-a-day” practices in a hot, humid environment(mean on-field WBGT=28.84+2.36oC). Main Outcome Measures: Urine samples were immediately analyzed for Usg using a refractometer, Diascreen 7® (URS1), Multistix® (URS2), and Chemstrip10® (URS3). Ucol was measured using Ucol chart. We calculated descriptive statistics for all main measures; Pearson correlations to assess relationships between the refractometer, each URS, and Ucol, and transformed Ucol data to Z-scores for comparison to the refractometer. Results: In Trial 1, we found a moderate relationship (r=0.491, p<.01) between URS1 (1.020+0.006μg) and the refractometer (1.026+0.010μg). In Trial 2, we found marked relationships for Ucol (5.6+1.6shades, r=0.619, p<0.01), URS2 (1.019+0.008μg, r=0.712, p<0.01), and URS3 (1.022+0.007μg, r=0.689, p<0.01) compared to the refractometer (1.028+0.008μg). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that URS were inconsistent between manufacturers, suggesting practitioners use the clinical refractometer to accurately determine Usg and monitor hydration status.

Four essays of environmental risk-mitigation

Expected damages of environmental risks depend both on their intensities and probabilities. There is very little control over probabilities of climate related disasters such as hurricanes. Therefore, researchers of social science are interested identifying preparation and mitigation measures that build human resilience to disasters and avoid serious loss. Conversely, environmental degradation, which is a process through which the natural environment is compromised in some way, has been accelerated by human activities. As scientists are finding effective ways on how to prevent and reduce pollution, the society often fails to adopt these effective preventive methods. Researchers of psychological and contextual characterization offer specific lessons for policy interventions that encourage human efforts to reduce pollution. This dissertation addresses four discussions of effective policy regimes encouraging pro-environmental preference in consumption and production, and promoting risk mitigation behavior in the face of natural hazards. The first essay describes how the speed of adoption of environment friendly technologies is driven largely by consumers' preferences and their learning dynamics rather than producers' choice. The second essay is an empirical analysis of a choice experiment to understand preferences for energy efficient investments. The empirical analysis suggests that subjects tend to increase energy efficient investment when they pay a pollution tax proportional to the total expenditure on energy consumption. However, investments in energy efficiency seem to be crowded out when subjects have the option to buy health insurance to cover pollution related health risks. In context of hurricane risk mitigation and in evidence of recently adopted My Safe Florida Home (MSFH) program by the State of Florida, the third essay shows that households with home insurance, prior experience with damages, and with a higher sense of vulnerability to be affected by hurricanes are more likely to allow home inspection to seek mitigation information. The fourth essay evaluates the impact of utility disruption on household well being based on the responses of a household-level phone survey in the wake of hurricane Wilma. Findings highlight the need for significant investment to enhance the capacity of rapid utility restoration after a hurricane event in the context of South Florida.

Obesity, cardiovascular disease risk factors and weight loss in a population of adult Mexican Americans

The study of obesity has evolved into one of the most important public health issues in the United States (U.S.), particularly in Hispanic populations. Mexican Americans, the largest Hispanic ethnic subgroup in the U.S., have been significantly impacted by obesity and related cardiovascular diseases. Mexican Americans living in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (the Valley) in the Texas-Mexico border are one of the most disadvantaged and hard-to-reach minority groups. Demographic factors, socioeconomic status, acculturation, and physical activity behavior have been found to be important predictors of health, although research findings are mixed when establishing predictors of obesity in this population. Furthermore, while obesity has long been linked to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors such as hypertension, type 2 diabetes, and dyslipidemia; information on the relationships between obesity and these CVD risk factors have been mostly from non-minority population groups. Overall, research has been mixed in establishing the association between obesity and related CVD risk factors in this population calling attention to the need for further research. Nevertheless, identifying predictors of success for weight loss in this population will be important if health disparities are to be addressed. The overall objective of the findings presented in this dissertation was to attain a more informed profile of obesity and CVD risk factors in this population. In particular, we examined predictors of obesity, measures of obesity and association with cardiovascular disease risk factors in a sample of 975 Mexican Americans participating in a health promotion program in the Valley region. Findings suggest acculturation factors to be one of the most important predictors of obesity in this population. Results also point to the need of identifying other possible risk factors for predicting CVD risk. Finally, initial body mass index is an important predictor of weight loss in this population group. Thus, indicating that this population is not only amenable to change, but that improvements in weight loss are feasible. This finding strengthens the relevance of prevention programs such as Beyond Sabor for Mexican populations at risk, in particular, food bank recipients.

Physiological performance measures and tolerance limits of estuarine indicator species in South Florida

Current water management practices in South Florida have negatively impacted many species inhabiting Florida Bay. Variable and high salinity has been identified as a key stressor in these estuaries. The comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) includes water redistribution projects that will restore natural freshwater flows to northeastern Florida Bay. My studies focused on the following central theme and hypotheses: Biological performance measures (i.e., growth, reproduction, survival), behavior (i.e., habitat preference and locomotor behavior) and diversity of estuarine fish will be controlled by changes in salinity and water quality that will occur as a result of the restoration of freshwater flow to the bay. A series of acute and subchronic physiological toxicity studies were conducted to determine the effects of salinity changes on the life stages (embryo/larval, juvenile, adult) and fecundity of four native estuarine fish (Cyprinodon variegatus, Floridichthys carpio, Poecilia latipinna, and Gambusia holbrooki). Fishe were exposed to a range of salinity concentrations (freshwater to hypersaline) based on salinity profiles in the study areas. Growth (length, weight) and survival were measured. Salinity trials included both rapid and gradual change events. Results show negative effects of acute, abrupt salinity changes on fish survival, development and reproductive success as a result of salinity stress. Other studies targeted reproduction and critical embryo-larval/neonate development as key areas for detecting long-term population effects of salinity change in Florida Bay. Adults of C. variegatus and P. latipinna were also examined for behavioral responses to pulsed salinity changes. These responses include changes in swimming performance, locomotor behavior and zone preference. Finally, an ecological risk assessment was conducted for adverse salinity conditions in northeastern Florida Bay. Using the U.S. EPA's framework, the risk to estuarine fish species diversity was assessed against regional salinity profiles from a 17-year database. Based on the risk assessment, target salinity profiles for these areas are recommended for managers.