Quantifying the effects of temperature and concentration on variable-density flow in numerical modeling of groundwater systems: Implications for predictive uncertainty and data collection

Groundwater systems of different densities are often mathematically modeled to understand and predict environmental behavior such as seawater intrusion or submarine groundwater discharge. Additional data collection may be justified if it will cost-effectively aid in reducing the uncertainty of a model's prediction. The collection of salinity, as well as, temperature data could aid in reducing predictive uncertainty in a variable-density model. However, before numerical models can be created, rigorous testing of the modeling code needs to be completed. This research documents the benchmark testing of a new modeling code, SEAWAT Version 4. The benchmark problems include various combinations of density-dependent flow resulting from variations in concentration and temperature. The verified code, SEAWAT, was then applied to two different hydrological analyses to explore the capacity of a variable-density model to guide data collection. ^ The first analysis tested a linear method to guide data collection by quantifying the contribution of different data types and locations toward reducing predictive uncertainty in a nonlinear variable-density flow and transport model. The relative contributions of temperature and concentration measurements, at different locations within a simulated carbonate platform, for predicting movement of the saltwater interface were assessed. Results from the method showed that concentration data had greater worth than temperature data in reducing predictive uncertainty in this case. Results also indicated that a linear method could be used to quantify data worth in a nonlinear model. ^ The second hydrological analysis utilized a model to identify the transient response of the salinity, temperature, age, and amount of submarine groundwater discharge to changes in tidal ocean stage, seasonal temperature variations, and different types of geology. The model was compared to multiple kinds of data to (1) calibrate and verify the model, and (2) explore the potential for the model to be used to guide the collection of data using techniques such as electromagnetic resistivity, thermal imagery, and seepage meters. Results indicated that the model can be used to give insight to submarine groundwater discharge and be used to guide data collection. ^

Groundwater-surface water interactions on tree islands in the Everglades, south Florida

The marked decline in tree island cover across the Everglades over the last century, has been attributed to landscape-scale hydrologic degradation. To preserve and restore Everglades tree islands, a clear understanding of tree island groundwater-surface water interactions is needed, as these interactions strongly influence the chemistry of shallow groundwater and the location and patterns of vegetation in many wetlands. The goal of this work was to define the relationship between groundwater-surface water interactions, plant-water uptake, and the groundwater geochemical condition of tree islands. Groundwater and surface water levels, temperature, and chemistry were monitored on eight constructed and one natural tree island in the Everglades from 2007–2010. Sap flow, diurnal water table fluctuations and stable oxygen isotopes of stem, ground and soil water were used to determine the effect of plant-water uptake on groundwater-surface water interactions. Hydrologic and geochemical modeling was used to further explore the effect of plant-groundwater-surface water interactions on ion concentrations and potential mineral formation.^

The role of recharge and evapotranspiration as hydraulic drivers of ion concentrations in shallow groundwater on Everglades tree islands, Florida (USA)

Recently, evapotranspiration has been hypothesized to promote the secondary formation of calcium carbonate year-round on tree islands in the Everglades by influencing groundwater ions concentrations. However, the role of recharge and evapotranspiration as drivers of shallow groundwater ion accumulation has not been investigated. The goal of this study is to develop a hydrologic model that predicts the chloride concentrations of shallow tree island groundwater and to determine the influence of overlying biomass and underlying geologic material on these concentrations. Groundwater and surface water levels and chloride concentrations were monitored on eight constructed tree islands at the Loxahatchee Impoundment Landscape Assessment (LILA) from 2007 to 2010. The tree islands at LILA were constructed predominately of peat, or of peat and limestone, and were planted with saplings of native tree species in 2006 and 2007. The model predicted low shallow groundwater chloride concentrations when inputs of regional groundwater and evapotranspiration-to-recharge rates were elevated, while low evapotranspiration-to-recharge rates resulted in a substantial increase of the chloride concentrations of the shallow groundwater. Modeling results indicated that evapotranspiration typically exceeded recharge on the older tree islands and those with a limestone lithology, which resulted in greater inputs of regional groundwater. A sensitivity analysis indicated the shallow groundwater chloride concentrations were most sensitive to alterations in specific yield during the wet season and hydraulic conductivity in the dry season. In conclusion, the inputs of rainfall, underlying hydrologic properties of tree islands sediments and forest structure may explain the variation in ion concentration seen across Everglades tree islands.

Dr. Price testing groundwater salinity at SRS-6

http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/fce_lter_photos/1337/thumbnail.jpg

Tree Islands in the Shark Slough Landscape: Interactions of Vegetation, Hydrology, and Soils

Executive Summary: This report presents what we have learned about tree islands of Shark Slough and adjacent marshes of Everglades National Park (ENP), based on ecological studies carried out in these wetlands during the period 2000-2003. The tree islands of Shark Slough share many features with tree islands elsewhere in the Everglades. Their current composition and community structure is determined to a large extent by recent hydrology, as well as by disturbances (fire, freezes, hurricanes, man). Tree islands have historical, cultural, and biological values that are recognized by nearly all parties to the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP). Maintaining and/or restoring the health of tree islands are major objectives of CERP. Consequently, there is a need within CERP for tools to assess the health of tree islands, and to relate these measures to the hydrologic regime to which they are exposed.

Flow and water budgets in the C-111 and L-31W canals near the Everglades National Park, Dade County, Florida

Acoustic velocity meter (AVM) sites, located both distant and adjacent to canal water control structures, were constructed and calibrated in L-31W borrow canal and Canal 111 (C-111) to measure canal water velocity. Data were used to compute monthly discharge volumes and overall water budgets for several canal reaches from August 1994 to May 1996. The water budgets indicated extensive aquifer inflows in L-31W associated, in part, with S-332 pump station return flows. Canal and groundwater piezometer data showed 5 distinct hydrologic scenarios (distinguished by the direction and magnitude of hydraulic gradients) in the important Frog Pond area on the eastern boundary of the Everglades National Park. Most of the water lost from C-111 was via surface water losses near the outlet of the system, close to Florida Bay. The distribution of flows during the study suggest an alteration of the present South Dade Conveyance System modification plan to improve water deliveries to Taylor Slough and the Eastern Panhandle of the Everglades National Park. ^

Hydrological dynamics between a coastal aquifer and the adjacent estuarine system, Biscayne Bay, South Florida

Geochemical and geophysical approaches have been used to investigate the freshwater and saltwater dynamics in the coastal Biscayne Aquifer and Biscayne Bay. Stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen, and concentrations of Sr2+ and Ca2+ were combined in two geochemical mixing models to provide estimates of the various freshwater inputs (precipitation, canal water, and groundwater) to Biscayne Bay and the coastal canal system in South Florida. Shallow geophysical electromagnetic and direct current resistivity surveys were used to image the geometry and stratification of the saltwater mixing zone in the near coastal (less than 1km inland) Biscayne Aquifer. The combined stable isotope and trace metal models suggest a ratio of canal input-precipitation-groundwater of 38%–52%–10% in the wet season and 37%–58%–5% in the dry season with an error of 25%, where most (20%) of the error was attributed to the isotope regression model, while the remaining 5% error was attributed to the Sr2+/Ca2+ mixing model. These models suggest rainfall is the dominate source of freshwater to Biscayne Bay. For a bay-wide water budget that includes saltwater and freshwater mixing, fresh groundwater accounts for less than 2% of the total input. A similar Sr 2+/Ca2+ tracer model indicates precipitation is the dominate source in 9 out of 10 canals that discharge into Biscayne Bay. The two-component mixing model converged for 100% of the freshwater canal samples in this study with 63% of the water contributed to the canals coming from precipitation and 37% from groundwater inputs ±4%. There was a seasonal shift from 63% precipitation input in the dry season to 55% precipitation input in the wet season. The three end-member mixing model converged for only 60% of the saline canal samples possibly due to non-conservative behavior of Sr2+ and Ca2+ in saline groundwater discharging into the canal system. Electromagnetic and Direct Current resistivity surveys were successful at locating and estimating the geometry and depth of the freshwater/saltwater interface in the Biscayne Aquifer at two near coastal sites. A saltwater interface that deepened as the survey moved inland was detected with a maximum interpreted depth to the interface of 15 meters, approximately 0.33 km inland from the shoreline. ^

Integrated surface-ground water modeling in wetlands with improved methods to simulate vegetative resistance to flow

In topographically flat wetlands, where shallow water table and conductive soil may develop as a result of wet and dry seasons, the connection between surface water and groundwater is not only present, but perhaps the key factor dominating the magnitude and direction of water flux. Due to their complex characteristics, modeling waterflow through wetlands using more realistic process formulations (integrated surface-ground water and vegetative resistance) is an actual necessity. This dissertation focused on developing an integrated surface – subsurface hydrologic simulation numerical model by programming and testing the coupling of the USGS MODFLOW-2005 Groundwater Flow Process (GWF) package (USGS, 2005) with the 2D surface water routing model: FLO-2D (O’Brien et al., 1993). The coupling included the necessary procedures to numerically integrate and verify both models as a single computational software system that will heretofore be referred to as WHIMFLO-2D (Wetlands Hydrology Integrated Model). An improved physical formulation of flow resistance through vegetation in shallow waters based on the concept of drag force was also implemented for the simulations of floodplains, while the use of the classical methods (e.g., Manning, Chezy, Darcy-Weisbach) to calculate flow resistance has been maintained for the canals and deeper waters. A preliminary demonstration exercise WHIMFLO-2D in an existing field site was developed for the Loxahatchee Impoundment Landscape Assessment (LILA), an 80 acre area, located at the Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wild Life Refuge in Boynton Beach, Florida. After applying a number of simplifying assumptions, results have illustrated the ability of the model to simulate the hydrology of a wetland. In this illustrative case, a comparison between measured and simulated stages level showed an average error of 0.31% with a maximum error of 2.8%. Comparison of measured and simulated groundwater head levels showed an average error of 0.18% with a maximum of 2.9%. The coupling of FLO-2D model with MODFLOW-2005 model and the incorporation of the dynamic effect of flow resistance due to vegetation performed in the new modeling tool WHIMFLO-2D is an important contribution to the field of numerical modeling of hydrologic flow in wetlands.

An integrated flow and transport model to study the impact of mercury remediation strategies for East Fork Poplar Creek watershed, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

An integrated flow and transport model using MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 software was developed to predict the flow and transport of mercury, Hg(II), under varying environmental conditions. The model analyzed the impact of remediation scenarios within the East Fork Poplar Creek watershed of the Oak Ridge Reservation with respect to downstream concentration of mercury. The numerical simulations included the entire hydrological cycle: flow in rivers, overland flow, groundwater flow in the saturated and unsaturated zones, and evapotranspiration and precipitation time series. Stochastic parameters and hydrologic conditions over a five year period of historical hydrological data were used to analyze the hydrological cycle and to determine the prevailing mercury transport mechanism within the watershed. Simulations of remediation scenarios revealed that reduction of the highly contaminated point sources, rather than general remediation of the contaminant plume, has a more direct impact on downstream mercury concentrations.

Xavier Zapata (FIU graduate student) collecting a groundwater sample, Taylor Slough

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation through the Florida Coastal Everglades Long-Term Ecological Research program under Cooperative Agreements #DBI-0620409 and #DEB-9910514. This image is made available for non-commercial or educational use only.

Comparative study of dissolved organic matter from groundwater and surface water in the Florida coastal Everglades using multi-dimensional spectrofluorometry combined with multivariate statistics

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) in groundwater and surface water samples from the Florida coastal Everglades were studied using excitation–emission matrix fluorescence modeled through parallel factor analysis (EEM-PARAFAC). DOM in both surface and groundwater from the eastern Everglades S332 basin reflected a terrestrial-derived fingerprint through dominantly higher abundances of humic-like PARAFAC components. In contrast, surface water DOM from northeastern Florida Bay featured a microbial-derived DOM signature based on the higher abundance of microbial humic-like and protein-like components consistent with its marine source. Surprisingly, groundwater DOM from northeastern Florida Bay reflected a terrestrial-derived source except for samples from central Florida Bay well, which mirrored a combination of terrestrial and marine end-member origin. Furthermore, surface water and groundwater displayed effects of different degradation pathways such as photodegradation and biodegradation as exemplified by two PARAFAC components seemingly indicative of such degradation processes. Finally, Principal Component Analysis of the EEM-PARAFAC data was able to distinguish and classify most of the samples according to DOM origins and degradation processes experienced, except for a small overlap of S332 surface water and groundwater, implying rather active surface-to-ground water interaction in some sites particularly during the rainy season. This study highlights that EEM-PARAFAC could be used successfully to trace and differentiate DOM from diverse sources across both horizontal and vertical flow profiles, and as such could be a convenient and useful tool for the better understanding of hydrological interactions and carbon biogeochemical cycling.

Developing performance measures of mangrove wetlands using simulation models of hydrology, nutrient biogeochemistry, and community dynamics

The goal of mangrove restoration projects should be to improve community structure and ecosystem function of degraded coastal landscapes. This requires the ability to forecast how mangrove structure and function will respond to prescribed changes in site conditions including hydrology, topography, and geophysical energies. There are global, regional, and local factors that can explain gradients of regulators (e.g., salinity, sulfides), resources (nutrients, light, water), and hydroperiod (frequency, duration of flooding) that collectively account for stressors that result in diverse patterns of mangrove properties across a variety of environmental settings. Simulation models of hydrology, nutrient biogeochemistry, and vegetation dynamics have been developed to forecast patterns in mangroves in the Florida Coastal Everglades. These models provide insight to mangrove response to specific restoration alternatives, testing causal mechanisms of system degradation. We propose that these models can also assist in selecting performance measures for monitoring programs that evaluate project effectiveness. This selection process in turn improves model development and calibration for forecasting mangrove response to restoration alternatives. Hydrologic performance measures include soil regulators, particularly soil salinity, surface topography of mangrove landscape, and hydroperiod, including both the frequency and duration of flooding. Estuarine performance measures should include salinity of the bay, tidal amplitude, and conditions of fresh water discharge (included in the salinity value). The most important performance measures from the mangrove biogeochemistry model should include soil resources (bulk density, total nitrogen, and phosphorus) and soil accretion. Mangrove ecology performance measures should include forest dimension analysis (transects and/or plots), sapling recruitment, leaf area index, and faunal relationships. Estuarine ecology performance measures should include the habitat function of mangroves, which can be evaluated with growth rate of key species, habitat suitability analysis, isotope abundance of indicator species, and bird census. The list of performance measures can be modified according to the model output that is used to define the scientific goals during the restoration planning process that reflect specific goals of the project.

Dr. Rene Price and Jeremy Stalker (FIU graduate student) collecting a groundwater sample, Taylor Slough

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation through the Florida Coastal Everglades Long-Term Ecological Research program under Cooperative Agreements #DBI-0620409 and #DEB-9910514. This image is made available for non-commercial or educational use only.

Development of an integrated surface and subsurface model of Everglades National Park

An integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model of Everglades National Park (ENP) was developed using MIKE SHE and MIKE 11 modeling software. The model has a resolution of 400 meters, covers approximately 1050 square miles of ENP, includes 110 miles of drainage canals with a variety of hydraulic structures, and processes hydrological information, such as evapotranspiration, precipitation, groundwater levels, canal discharges and levels, and operational schedules. Calibration was based on time series and probability of exceedance for water levels and discharges in the years 1987 through 1997. Model verification was then completed for the period of 1998 through 2005. Parameter sensitivity in uncertainty analysis showed that the model was most sensitive to the hydraulic conductivity of the regional Surficial Aquifer System, the Manning's roughness coefficient, and the leakage coefficient, which defines the canal-subsurface interaction. The model offers an enhanced predictive capability, compared to other models currently available, to simulate the flow regime in ENP and to forecast the impact of topography, water flows, and modifying operation schedules.

Crayfish assemblage shifts in a large drought-prone wetland: the roles of hydrology and competition

1. Faster growing, larger and/or more aggressive crayfish species are predicted to dominate permanent waterbodies. We tested this prediction using a 9 year dataset for two species of crayfish (Procambarus alleni and Procambarus fallax) co-existing in a sub-tropical flowing slough in southern Florida. Using a series of laboratory and mesocosm experiments we also compared life history traits and performance of the respective species to test mechanisms that could explain dominance shifts in the local crayfish assemblages. 2. Over the 9-year period, P. alleni densities were the greatest in shallower, shorterhydroperiod areas bordering the slough, while P. fallax densities were higher in deeper, longer-hydroperiod central areas. These areas were separated by 0.8–2 km of continuous wetland with no apparent barriers to movement between them. 3. Density of P. fallax was not strongly affected by any measures of hydrological variation, while P. alleni density increased with more severe drought conditions. Following the strongest droughts, P. alleni colonized areas in the centre of the slough where they had been absent or scarce in wetter years. 4. We conducted experiments to compare growth rates, drought tolerance, and competitive dominance of these species. P. alleni survived drought conditions better, had higher growth rates, and was the dominant competitor for space and food. While drought probably limits P. fallax in the drier slough habitats, neither drought sensitivity nor interspecific competition with P. fallax can explain decreases of P. alleni with wetter conditions. 5. Our results indicate that a competition-colonization tradeoff cannot explain the crayfish compositional dynamics in this wetland because P. alleni is both the best competitor and the best at surviving in and colonizing areas with the strongest droughts. Future attention should focus on the potential for selective effects of predators that co-vary with hydrology. 6. The traits (large size, fast growth, competitive dominance) exhibited by P. alleni, which is absent in long-hydroperiod wetlands, are those exhibited by dominant crayfish in permanent lakes and streams containing fish. Although these traits make crayfish less vulnerable to fish in some lakes and streams, life-history models of community structure across permanence gradients suggest the opposite traits should be favoured for co-existence with fish.