3 resultados para Regressão linear local

em Universidade Federal de Uberlândia


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The main aim of this research was to study pluviosity in the Paranaíba Riverbasin, especially concerning the variability frame and trends. For this end, we used data from 22 pluviometric stations of the Agência Nacional da Águas- ANA(National Water Agency)spatially distributed throughout the basin area. The data comprised the years 1979-2013, which is a historical series of 35 years, and was downloaded through the ANA website and tabulated using the Hydro 1.2 software (2015) and Excel. After tabulation process were applied based methodologies for statistical analysis of annual variability, monthly, daily and seasonal rainfall in the basin beyond the trend analysis. Results of this research showed that the annual rainfall averageis 1491 mm. Seasonality is a hallmark and rainfall variability occurs spatially and temporally. Rains are accumulated in the rainy season accumulating 85% of the annual volume in the basin. In daily analysis it was found that the daily rainfall above 30 mm occur in only 3% of the time. Dry season comprises 15% of the rainfall. Trend analysis using linear regression pointed to a downward trend in rainfall in 46% of jobs, stability in 18% of posts and increased rainfall by 36%. As for the analysis using the sign test indicated that 32% of the analyzed rainfall stations showed an increasing trend of rainfall over the time series and 68% of stations showed downward trend. This research is important because shows how rainfall worksin the area of the Paranaiba basin, and may be used to develop better management of natural resources and the area through public policies for this purpose.

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CHAPTER 1 - The gummy stem blight, caused by the fungus D. bryoniae, is a disease commonly found in watermelon cultivated in several countries. In Brazil, there are numerous studies related to the disease, but there are not uniform methods for quantifying of disease severity in the field. Thus, we developed a diagrammatic scale based on scanned photos of watermelon leaves infected with D. bryoniae. The scale developed showed levels of 0; 10; 20; 45; 65 and 90% of severity. The scale validation was divided into two parts: initially, 10 evaluators (half with experienced and other half without experience) estimated the disease severity based on the initial observation of 100 photos of watermelon leaves with symptoms of the disease at different severity levels. Before, the same evaluators estimated the disease severity with the support of the scale prepared from the Quant program. Data were analyzed using linear regression and were obtained angular, linear, and correlation coefficients. Based on these data, we determined the accuracy and precision of the evaluations. The correlation coefficients (R2) ranged from 0.88 - 0.97 for the experienced evaluators and from 0.55 - 0.95 for the inexperienced evaluators. The average angular coefficient (A) for inexperienced evaluators was 20.42 and 8.61 with and without the support of diagrammatic scale, respectively. Experienced evaluators showed values of average linear coefficient of 5.30 and 1.68 with and without the support of diagrammatic scale, respectively. The absolute errors analysis indicated that the use of diagrammatic scale contributed to minimize the flaws in the severity levels estimation. The diagrammatic scale proposed shown adequate for gummy stem blight severity evaluation in watermelon. CHAPTER 2 - The gummy stem blight (Didymella bryoniae) is a disease that affects the productivity of watermelon leading to losses over 40%. This study aimed to evaluate the efficiency of different production systems in control of gummy stem blight in watermelon for to establish efficient methods to combat the disease. There were applied the following treatments: conventional tillage (T1), integrated management (T2) and organic management (T3). In T1 and T2 were applied mineral fertilization and T3 was used bovine manure. There was application of fungicides and insecticides in commercial dose in T1 and T2, being after soil chemical analysis in T2. Disease severity was assessed by grading scale. The experimental design was randomized blocks. The severity of gummy stem blight has increased substantially during the fruit formation. Watermelon plants grown with integrated management (T2) showed lower levels of disease severity, while plants in organic management (T3) exhibited higher levels of severity. We conclude that management based on judicious accompaniments in field represents best way to achieve the phytosanitary aspect adequate for cultivation of watermelon in Tocantins.

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Preterm birth is a public health problem worldwide. It holds growing global incidence rates, high mortality rates and a risk of the long-term sequelae in the newborn. It is also poses burden on the family and society. Mothers of very low birth weight (VLBW) preterm infants may develop psychological disorders, and impaired quality of life (QoL). Factors related to mothers and children in the postpartum period may be negatively associated with the QoL of these mothers. The aim of this study was to assess factors possibly associated with the QoL of mothers of VLBW preterm newborns during the first three years after birth. Mothers of VLBW preterm answered the World Health Organization Quality of Life (WHOQOL)-bref and the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) in five time points up to 36 months postpartum, totalizing 260 observations. The WHOQOL–bref scores were compared and correlated with sociodemographic and clinical variables of mothers and children at discharge (T0) and at six (T1), twelve (T2), 24 (T3) and 36 (T4) months after the delivery. We used the Kruskal Wallis test to compared scores across different time points and correlated WHOQOL-bref scores with the sociodemographic and clinical variables of mothers and preterm infants. Multiple linear regression models were used to evaluate the contribution of these variables for the QoL of mothers. The WHOQOL–bref scores at T1 and T2 were higher when compared to scores in T0 in the physical health dimension (p = 0.013). BDI scores were also higher at T1 and T2 than those at T0 (p = 0.027). Among the maternal variables that contributed most to the QoL of mothers, there were: at T0, stable marital union (b= 13.60; p= 0.000) on the social relationships dimension, gestational age (b= 2.38; p= 0.010) in the physical health dimension; post-hemorrhagic hydrocephalus (b= -10.05; p= 0.010; b= -12.18; p= 0.013, respectively) in the psychological dimension; at T1 and T2, Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (b= -7.41; p= 0.005) and female sex (b= 8,094; p= 0.011) in the physical health dimension and environment, respectively. At T3, family income (b= -12.75’ p= 0.001) in the environment dimension, the SNAPPE neonatal severity score (b= -0.23; p= 0.027) on the social relationships dimension; at the T4, evangelical religion (b= 8.11; p= 0.019) and post-hemorrhagic hydrocephalus (b: -18.84 p: 0.001) on the social relationships dimension. The BDI scores were negatively associated with WHOQOL scores in all dimensions and at all times points: (-1.42 ≤ b ≤ -0.36; T0, T1, T2, T3 and T4). We conclude that mothers of preterm infants VLBW tend to have a transient improvement in the physical well-being during the first postpartum year. Their quality of life seems to return to levels at discharge between two and three years after delivery. The presence of maternal depressive symptoms and diagnosis of post-hemorrhagic hydrocephalus or BDP are factors negatively associated with the QoL of mothers. Social, religious and economic variables are positively associated with the QoL of mothers of VLBW preterm.