Termos de troca, preço das commodities e o crescimento brasileiro : uma análise sob o prisma da restrição externa

This study aims to investigate the relationship between terms of trade and the long-term growth of Brazilian economy, from the perspective of external constraint, between the period 1994 to 2014. For this purpose, it is based on Thirlwall's (1979) original contribution, in order to empirically test the terms of trade contribution for determining the Brazilian growth potential product equivalent with Balance of Payments equilibriun. Using cointegration method, which seeks to analyze the long-term relationship between the variables, and subdividing the period into two sub-periods, 1994-2004 and 2004-2014, we estimate and compare real and hypothetical income elasticities and predicted and observed growth rates, with and without the terms of trade, for each period. The obteined results show that the inclusion of terms of trade in the empirical procedure to test the validity of Thirlwall's Law lead to higher growth rates obtained by the model (hypothetical), for the entire period 1994-2014 and for the sub-period 2004 -2014. This "theoretical" relaxation of the external constraint, caused by the inclusion of the terms of trade in traditional Thirlwall's rule, overestimated the average real growth rate for these periods, while the traditional Thirlwall's Law - without terms of trade - has adapted better to the real behavior of Brazilian economy. Thus, despite having contributed potentially for the relaxation of external constraint on Brazilian growth, the effect of terms of trade may have been offset by the negative performance of other Balance of Payments components, as capital flows and interest, profits and dividends payments abroad.

Restrição externa, dependência estrutural de commodities primárias e o investimento direto externo no Brasil

As the beginning of the discussion about the reprimarization process of the Brazilian exportations, or about a deindustrialization process of the country foreign sales, this study purpose that the discussion, actually, should be about the existence of the commodities structural dependence as a way to face the foreign restrictions. Therefore the intention is to show that, historically, the way that the Brazilian economy has crossed for its development depends of the foreign capital, mainly in its way of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and in the balance generated by the primary products, which make us try to understand the impact of this capital for the equilibrium of the Brazilian Payment Balance and also for the economy. These points were discussed not only based on the Brazilian classic writers as Francisco Oliveira, Caio Prado Jr. and Celso Furtado, but also using the newest studies which contributes to point the causes and consequences of the external capital dependence in the actual scenario. The conclusions acquired in the end of the study, indicates the fact that the Brazilian specialization in products of low aggregated value is not recent. Brazil is, historically, a competitive country in primary products. At the same time, the country importation always was a pressure factor of the National Payments Balance, being composed by products with more aggregated value. According to some authors, this characteristic of the Brazilian Economy will be surpassed with the economic opening process, which will attract external capital making possible the modernization of the Brazilian productive sector. Therefore, we can claim that the FDI, in the way it has been inserted in the country, does not offer the opportunity to get out of the commodities dependence, as generators of the payment balances, because the country international competitive standard didn t get any important changes, keeping itself out of the step related to the global standard which has been intensified in products with more aggregated value. The changes in the national insertion standard directed to more technological products is really important to surpass the historical scenario of commodities dependence, making the country less vulnerable to external crisis.

Aditivo polimérico derivado de fonte renovável para aplicação em cimento asfáltico de petróleo

This study evaluated the effects of incorporating an additive from an agro-industrial residue, after some chemical modification reactions, to petroleum asphalt cement (CAP) through the polymerization reaction of a viscous polyol obtained by bagasse biomass oxypropylation reaction sugarcane with anhydrides. The polyol is obtained by biomass oxypropylation reaction with propylene oxide, the reaction was performed in an autoclave sealed with pressure and temperature control using 25 mL of OP for every 5 grams of biomass 200°C, which time reaction was two hours. The reaction is revealed by varying the system pressure, initially at atmospheric pressure to reach a maximum pressure value and its subsequent return to atmospheric pressure. For the choice of the most suitable reaction time for polymerization of the polyol with pyromellitic anhydride, the reaction was also conducted in an autoclave sealed with temperature controller (150 ° C) using 20 g of polyol, 1 g of sodium acetate (catalyst) and 8 g of pyromellitic anhydride with the times 30 and 60 minutes. The polymerized materials with different times were characterized by determining the relative viscosity and percentage content of extractable in cyclohexane / ethanol. Given the results with the polymerized material 30 minutes showed the lowest percentage content of extractives and an increased viscosity relative indicating that this time is highlighted with respect to time 60 minutes, because the material is possibly in the form of a crosslinked polymer. Given the choice of time of 30 minutes other polymerization reactions were performed with various anhydrides and other conditions employed different proportions by mass of polyol anhydrides we were referred to as condition I (20 g anhydride and 8 g of polyol), II (20 g anhydride and 20 g of polyol) and III (8 g anhydride and 20 g of polyol). The FTIR spectra of polymeric materials with different polymerization conditions used to prove the occurrence of chemical modification due to the appearance of a characteristic band ester groups (1750 cm-1) present in the polymerized material. He chose to work with the condition III, as is the condition which employs a larger amount of polyol, and even with the smaller amount of anhydride used FTIR spectra revealed that the polymerization reaction was performed. Among the various anhydrides (phthalic, maleic and pyromellitic) of the different conditions used that stood out before the solubility test with solvents analyzed was polymerized material with pyromellitic anhydride because the polymerized material likely in the form of a crosslinked polymer because it was insoluble or poorly soluble in the solvents tested. Polymerization of the polyol with pyromellitic anhydride using condition III, that is, BCPP30, CSPP30, PCPP30 e BCPPG30, provided an increase in thermal stability relative to material in the form of polyol. Applicability tests concerning the incorporation of 16% m / m BCPP30, CSPP30, PCPP30 e BCPPG30 additive in relation to the mass of 600 g CAP showed through characterization tests used, softening point, elastic recovery and marshall dosage, it is possible to use BCPP30 as an additive the conventional CAP, because even with the incorporation of this new additive modified CAP met the specifications of the appropriate standard.