A dinâmica da taxa de câmbio no Brasil face às operações swap (2002-2015)

This dissertation investigates, based on the Post-Keynesian theory and on its concept of monetary economy of production, the exchange rate behavior of the Brazilian Real in the presence of Brazilian Central Bank's interventions by means of the so-called swap transactions over 2002-2015. Initially, the work analyzes the essential properties of an open monetary economy of production and, thereafter, it presents the basic propositions of the Post-Keynesian view on the exchange rate determination, highlighting the properties of foreign exchange markets and the peculiarities of the Brazilian position into the international monetary and financial system. The research, thereby, accounts for the various segments of the Brazilian foreign exchange market. To accomplish its purpose, we first do a literature review of the Post-Keynesian literature about the topic. Then, we undertake empirical exams of the exchange rate determination using two statistical methods. On the one hand, to measure the volatility of exchange rate, we estimate Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH) and Generalized Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) models. On the other hand, to measure the variance of the exchange rate in relation to real, financial variables, and the swaps, we estimate a Vector Auto-regression (VAR) model. Both experiments are performed for the nominal and real effective exchange rates. The results show that the swaps respond to exchange rate movements, trying to offset its volatility. This reveals that the exchange rate is, at least in a certain magnitude, sensitive to swaps transactions conducted by the Central Bank. In addition, another empirical result is that the real effective exchange rate responds more to the swaps auctions than the nominal rate.

A dinâmica geográfica da construção de um território para moradias sociais: estudo testemunhal do empreendimento Vitória Brasil em Uberlândia (MG)

This work describes and analyzes the situation planned with the current, according to the housing development project style of social interest (Gleba 9), named Victory Brazil at Shopping Park II neighborhood, located in the southern sector of Uberlândia (MG), built with Program resources Minha Casa, Minha Vida (PMCMV). The specific objectives are: to present the housing policy of social interest directed to the Minha Casa, Minha Vida in the city of Uberlândia, from its history to its current information; trace the environmental characterization of the housing Vitoria Brazil through the development of thematic maps; identify the impacts generated by the housing projects of social interest; and show through interviews with 25 residents of Vitoria Brazil, the structural problems of the houses. Therefore, the research became quali-quantitative with descriptive approach and use of semi- structured interviews to collect data. In addition, the iconographic sources, ie photographs of the problems raised by the residents of the whole Victory Brazil and maps of the study area, enlarged the qualitative and dialogic nature of this study, as there is opportunity to contextualize specific way what was reported the residents interviewed. We understand that the city is intrinsically related to the design of agglomeration, characterized by the production of the possessor market capitalism a public administration system that is guided by the ideals of consumption and utilization of space, and its inhabitants are high class with the construction of equipment and adequate social services. One of the important biases to solving the problems of urbanization is by the intervention of the government through public policies through the master plan so that would allow prospects to enable the population of low-income housing in locations that offer housing and decent urbanization conditions.

Dinâmica industrial, emprego e pobreza no Brasil, uma abordagem alternativa

Between 2003 and 2014 Brazil has increased exports by 52%, increased the formal employment and paid employment by 19% and reduced multidimensional poverty by 42%. The purpose of this work is to test the hypothesis that there is a Brazilian Growth Virtuous Circle where these three variables would be connected in order to increase exports and reduce poverty through the salaries transfer of funds. The construction of the hypothesis is made for Export Industry through ideas Verdoorn, Kaldor and Thirlwall presenting the export industry as an engine of economic growth. To present employment acting directly on economic growth is used Wage Led Rowthorn approach. The Capability Approach of Amartya Sen is used to understand the Multidimensional Poverty. The hypothesis was tested using data from the National Household Survey and Aliceweb between 2003 and 2014 with the use of the Generalized Method of Moments and the generation of elasticities between export and employment, employment and poverty, and export and poverty.

Modelagem e análise dinâmica de um sistema de conversão de energia eólica dotado de gerador síncrono de imã permanente utilizando a plataforma ATP

Human development requires a broad balance between ecological, social and economic factors in order to ensure its own sustainability. In this sense, the search for new sources of energy generation, with low deployment and operation costs, which cause the least possible impact to the environment, has been the focus of attention of all society segments. To do so, the reduction in exploration of fossil fuels and the encouragement of using renewable energy resources for distributed generation have proved interesting alternatives to the expansion of the energy matrix of various countries in the world. In this sense, the wind energy has acquired an increasingly significant role, presenting increasing rates of power grid penetration and highlighting technological innovations such as the use of permanent magnet synchronous generators (PMSG). In Brazil, this fact has also been noted and, as a result, the impact of the inclusion of this source in the distribution and sub-transmission power grid has been a major concern of utilities and agents connected to Brazilian electrical sector. Thus, it is relevant the development of appropriate computational tools that allow detailed predictive studies about the dynamic behavior of wind farms, either operating with isolated load, either connected to the main grid, taking also into account the implementation of control strategies for active/reactive power generation and the keeping of adequate levels of voltage and frequency. This work fits in this context since it comprises mathematical and computational developments of a complete wind energy conversion system (WECS) endowed with PMSG using time domain techniques of Alternative Transients Program (ATP), which prides itself a recognized reputation by scientific and academic communities as well as by electricity professionals in Brazil and elsewhere. The modeling procedures performed allowed the elaboration of blocks representing each of the elements of a real WECS, comprising the primary source (the wind), the wind turbine, the PMSG, the frequency converter, the step up transformer, the load composition and the power grid equivalent. Special attention is also given to the implementation of wind turbine control techniques, mainly the pitch control responsible for keeping the generator under the maximum power operation point, and the vector theory that aims at adjusting the active/reactive power flow between the wind turbine and the power grid. Several simulations are performed to investigate the dynamic behavior of the wind farm when subjected to different operating conditions and/or on the occurrence of wind intensity variations. The results have shown the effectiveness of both mathematical and computational modeling developed for the wind turbine and the associated controls.

Padrão de especialização comercial e crescimento econômico : uma análise sobre o Brasil no contexto da fragmentação da produção e das cadeias globais de valor

Globalization and technological changes that has happened since the 80s have brought remarkable changes in the industrial and commercial paradigm, which are expressed mainly in the international fragmentation of production and in the formation of Global Value Chains (GVC). This thesis sought to understand such phenomena and discuss new relevant variables in this context for a more accurate analysis of the current trade patterns not addressed by the seminal economic theories that relate trade and economic growth. It sought to evaluate how the trade specialization pattern of Brazil evolved compared to other economies (China, India, Russia, United States, Japan and selected Latin American economies) in the light of these phenomena from 1995 to 2011. Therefore, we have used the methodology of gross exports decomposition in value added measures, developed by Koopman et al. (2014), and indicators estimated from data of two global matrices I-O: a WIOT (2013) and the TiVA (2015). It was also tested two hypotheses regarding the role of these phenomena as determinants of economic growth in recent years: 1º) fragmentation and participation in GVC ensure higher growth rates for countries; 2º) the place (stage) in which the country finds itself in GVC associated with sectoral technological aspects is also important for economic growth. For this, we used dynamic panel models (Difference GMM and System GMM) for a sample of 40 countries from 2003 to 2011. The studies carried out on Brazil show that the country is no longer on the margins of these phenomena, because it shows increasing rates of participation in GVC, including in sectors considered most strategic for fragmentation. However, there is not a standard convergence of trade specialization of the country to those presented by developed countries or movements earned by China and Mexico in terms of their position and profile of participating in GVC. Another important result obtained by the thesis is the identification of these phenomena are in fact new variables relevant for economic growth, because it shows empirical evidences to support the hypothesis 1 and, partially, the hypothesis 2. A joint analysis of the estimated econometric results with the results of the descriptive analysis of the Brazilian economy, it leads us to conclude that the trade specialization pattern of the country in the context of the new trade setups is presented unfavorably to its growth strategy.

Estrutura e dinâmica de perfilhamento do capim-marandu com alturas variáveis no inverno

The livestock system in Brazil mainly uses the pastures as source of food to cattle, and the marandu palisade grass is one of the main forage crop plants. In order to supply the demand of these animals in amount of forage, it is necessary to adopt management strategies aimed at increased forage production with adequate characteristics to animal intake. In this context, is requiered to identify management strategies of defoliation that improve tillering of marandu palisade grass during the seasons. There is a chance that the maintenance of lower marandu palisade grass during the fall and winter compared to spring and summer, increase the incidence of light at the base of the plants and, indeed, encourage tillering and modify the structure of the pasture compared to maintain marandu palisade grass with constant height along these stations.