Padrão de especialização comercial e crescimento econômico : uma análise sobre o Brasil no contexto da fragmentação da produção e das cadeias globais de valor

Globalization and technological changes that has happened since the 80s have brought remarkable changes in the industrial and commercial paradigm, which are expressed mainly in the international fragmentation of production and in the formation of Global Value Chains (GVC). This thesis sought to understand such phenomena and discuss new relevant variables in this context for a more accurate analysis of the current trade patterns not addressed by the seminal economic theories that relate trade and economic growth. It sought to evaluate how the trade specialization pattern of Brazil evolved compared to other economies (China, India, Russia, United States, Japan and selected Latin American economies) in the light of these phenomena from 1995 to 2011. Therefore, we have used the methodology of gross exports decomposition in value added measures, developed by Koopman et al. (2014), and indicators estimated from data of two global matrices I-O: a WIOT (2013) and the TiVA (2015). It was also tested two hypotheses regarding the role of these phenomena as determinants of economic growth in recent years: 1º) fragmentation and participation in GVC ensure higher growth rates for countries; 2º) the place (stage) in which the country finds itself in GVC associated with sectoral technological aspects is also important for economic growth. For this, we used dynamic panel models (Difference GMM and System GMM) for a sample of 40 countries from 2003 to 2011. The studies carried out on Brazil show that the country is no longer on the margins of these phenomena, because it shows increasing rates of participation in GVC, including in sectors considered most strategic for fragmentation. However, there is not a standard convergence of trade specialization of the country to those presented by developed countries or movements earned by China and Mexico in terms of their position and profile of participating in GVC. Another important result obtained by the thesis is the identification of these phenomena are in fact new variables relevant for economic growth, because it shows empirical evidences to support the hypothesis 1 and, partially, the hypothesis 2. A joint analysis of the estimated econometric results with the results of the descriptive analysis of the Brazilian economy, it leads us to conclude that the trade specialization pattern of the country in the context of the new trade setups is presented unfavorably to its growth strategy.

Termos de troca, preço das commodities e o crescimento brasileiro : uma análise sob o prisma da restrição externa

This study aims to investigate the relationship between terms of trade and the long-term growth of Brazilian economy, from the perspective of external constraint, between the period 1994 to 2014. For this purpose, it is based on Thirlwall's (1979) original contribution, in order to empirically test the terms of trade contribution for determining the Brazilian growth potential product equivalent with Balance of Payments equilibriun. Using cointegration method, which seeks to analyze the long-term relationship between the variables, and subdividing the period into two sub-periods, 1994-2004 and 2004-2014, we estimate and compare real and hypothetical income elasticities and predicted and observed growth rates, with and without the terms of trade, for each period. The obteined results show that the inclusion of terms of trade in the empirical procedure to test the validity of Thirlwall's Law lead to higher growth rates obtained by the model (hypothetical), for the entire period 1994-2014 and for the sub-period 2004 -2014. This "theoretical" relaxation of the external constraint, caused by the inclusion of the terms of trade in traditional Thirlwall's rule, overestimated the average real growth rate for these periods, while the traditional Thirlwall's Law - without terms of trade - has adapted better to the real behavior of Brazilian economy. Thus, despite having contributed potentially for the relaxation of external constraint on Brazilian growth, the effect of terms of trade may have been offset by the negative performance of other Balance of Payments components, as capital flows and interest, profits and dividends payments abroad.

Do reconhecimento à efetividade do direito fundamental à água: diálogos entre Nicarágua e Brasil

La humanidad está en un periodo de transición paradigmática, donde aún no existe acuerdo sobre en cual periodo nos encuadramos, sí modernidad o posmodernidad, pero el debate de ahí surgido se revela útil y transversal a los dilemas que enfrenta hoy la sociedad. Uno de esos dilemas tiene que ver con el reconocimiento del agua como derecho fundamental, ciertamente la era de la información ha permitido avanzar en armar el rompecabezas de la crisis hídrica mundial y sus riesgos, lo que ha develado una realidad importante, el acceso al agua tanto en naciones económicamente desarrolladas como en las menos desarrolladas constituye aun una aspiración, son varias las causas de esto, siendo una de las más comunes la atribuida al cambio climático, sin embargo, al profundizar en la materia surgen otras causas como la falta de voluntad política a nivel nacional, los intereses económicos que dan al agua tratamiento de mercancía y a nivel internacional la existencia de luces y sombras en el campo de los derechos humanos, estas constituyen las piezas del mencionado rompecabezas, aun por armar. Mientras tanto el Derecho tiene aquí un desafío de significativa importancia, adaptarse a fin de responder adecuadamente a las nuevas realidades: riesgos de diversas índoles. Esta investigación tiene como objetivo defender la existencia del derecho fundamental al agua en el ordenamiento jurídico brasileño y nicaragüense, comparando instrumentos que puedan asegurar su efectividad. Para la realización de este trabajo se utilizó un abordaje inductivo-comparativo, fuentes bibliográficas brasileñas, nicaragüenses y de países con experiencias relevantes para la comprensión del problema y que pudieran aportar propuestas de cara al reconocimiento y efectivación del derecho fundamental al agua. Este trabajo encontró que existen ambigüedades importantes en el campo del Derecho Humano al Agua motivadas por el trabajo de agencias que defienden el derecho pero a la vez establecen coordinaciones y normativas con quienes impulsan su privatización, fue posible presentar elementos que apoyan la fundamentalidad del derecho al agua desde un punto de vista material y de vinculación con otros derechos fundamentales, pero preocupa en el caso de Brasil y Nicaragua el poco avance jurisprudencial de cara al reconocimiento y finalmente la atribución de la crisis hídrica en muchos casos a la incertidumbre climática, cuando uno de los principales desafíos se encuentra en la explotación comercial del agua.