A dinâmica da taxa de câmbio no Brasil face às operações swap (2002-2015)

This dissertation investigates, based on the Post-Keynesian theory and on its concept of monetary economy of production, the exchange rate behavior of the Brazilian Real in the presence of Brazilian Central Bank's interventions by means of the so-called swap transactions over 2002-2015. Initially, the work analyzes the essential properties of an open monetary economy of production and, thereafter, it presents the basic propositions of the Post-Keynesian view on the exchange rate determination, highlighting the properties of foreign exchange markets and the peculiarities of the Brazilian position into the international monetary and financial system. The research, thereby, accounts for the various segments of the Brazilian foreign exchange market. To accomplish its purpose, we first do a literature review of the Post-Keynesian literature about the topic. Then, we undertake empirical exams of the exchange rate determination using two statistical methods. On the one hand, to measure the volatility of exchange rate, we estimate Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH) and Generalized Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) models. On the other hand, to measure the variance of the exchange rate in relation to real, financial variables, and the swaps, we estimate a Vector Auto-regression (VAR) model. Both experiments are performed for the nominal and real effective exchange rates. The results show that the swaps respond to exchange rate movements, trying to offset its volatility. This reveals that the exchange rate is, at least in a certain magnitude, sensitive to swaps transactions conducted by the Central Bank. In addition, another empirical result is that the real effective exchange rate responds more to the swaps auctions than the nominal rate.

O produtor familiar na pecuária leiteira : limites e potencialidades

The technological change is nowadays, comprehended as a playing field which involves cultural and economic processes of appreciation and depreciation of the social aspects of family unit. The exclusion of small producers from the activity is used as an argument to characterize that in the contemporary intercapitalist competition, the family ways of production take up restrict social positions of a technical progress and of a cultural and economic appreciation. The state, a coparcener of the modernization process, has its relevance as a financing agent, a technical capacitor, an infrastructure propitiator, that is, through macro and microeconomic policies which can create sustainable conditions to permit, mainly, not only the family producer to be inserted in the activity, but, above all, to remain in it. This way, this study aims to identify and analyze the family producer, through its limits and potentialities, with a thesis that this would be the main agent responsible for boosting the Brazilian milk production in quantity and quality. Therefore, results were compared obtained from a field survey with data collection via semi-structured open interviews in a sample of 108 producers effectively respondents, namely: 59 family farmers with active DAP (research focus) and 49 employers producers the municipality of Monte Alegre de Minas - MG. Technological indices were used to identify the developmental stage of the producers, thus allowing a comparative study between them. The field research covered all rural municipality of Monte Alegre de Minas – MG and, the result found that the majority of family farmers presented lower rates than technological employers producers. However, it allowed us to state also that the producer family and assisted by public policies, can be the agent of transformation of dairy farming.