Perfil exportador e crescimento econ��mico: uma an��lise de painel para economias africanas

This study aims to evaluate the relationship between the export profile and the African GDP growth rate. Chapter 1 presents the literature on the subject and studies that analyze the specific case of Africa. There seems to be a consensus that exports contribute to economic growth. However, there is no consensus on the benefits that are incorporated from exported products. The divergence lies between the approach of the Natural Resources Curse, where concentration of exports in commodities does not contribute to economic growth. Another work line supports the idea there is no such relation. Chapter 2 presents, through descriptive analysis, macroeconomic and international trade data for African economies data. Based on data from 52 countries for the period 1990-2014, it can be observed that the African continent has improved in macroeconomic terms, with increased exports and economic growth rates, suggesting a positive relationship between the variables. Trade indicators show Africa's integration into the global economy, with European Union, USA, China and some emerging countries as main partners. In addition, the analysis showed that the export is concentrated in oil and agricultural commodities. Most African countries face a negative trade balance, depending of primary products exports with low added value and imports of manufactured goods. Finally, Chapter 3 presents an empirical research using panel data analysis. The results suggest, in general, evidences that exports are important for explaining the African economic growth rate of African economies can be stimulated by the expansion of the share of exports in GDP. The estimated coefficients are positive and statistically significant in both the fixed effect estimation, as the estimation by GMM System. The estimation of growth models for fixed or random effects indicates a direct and statistically significant relationship between export oil / minerals and the growth rate of African countries. Thus, the export profile turns out to be important to determine the growth rate. The results obtained from the estimates do not corroborate the literature arguments called Curse of Natural Resources for the period analyzed, since export natural resources, especially oil and minerals, were relevant to explain the performance of the growth rate of economies.

Din��mica industrial, emprego e pobreza no Brasil, uma abordagem alternativa

Between 2003 and 2014 Brazil has increased exports by 52%, increased the formal employment and paid employment by 19% and reduced multidimensional poverty by 42%. The purpose of this work is to test the hypothesis that there is a Brazilian Growth Virtuous Circle where these three variables would be connected in order to increase exports and reduce poverty through the salaries transfer of funds. The construction of the hypothesis is made for Export Industry through ideas Verdoorn, Kaldor and Thirlwall presenting the export industry as an engine of economic growth. To present employment acting directly on economic growth is used Wage Led Rowthorn approach. The Capability Approach of Amartya Sen is used to understand the Multidimensional Poverty. The hypothesis was tested using data from the National Household Survey and Aliceweb between 2003 and 2014 with the use of the Generalized Method of Moments and the generation of elasticities between export and employment, employment and poverty, and export and poverty.

Jogos de neg��cio : o que leva o docente de cursos da ��rea de Ci��ncias Sociais Aplicadas a adotar a ferramenta de ensino

The Business Games are a growing teaching strategy and alternative to the academic front through the new process of Teaching and Learning. Through literature review and semi-structured interviews, this work addresses the teachers considering their subjectivity in deciding JN as the three profiles suggested by Faria and Wellington (2004): those who use it, those who stopped using and those who do not. The research corpus is limited to contributions of 22 respondents between master and doctors teachers of Applied Social Sciences area courses in colleges of Bras��lia (DF), Goi��nia (GO), Ribeir��o Preto (SP) and Uberlandia (MG). The content analysis of the interviews allowed to infer that: (1) join the teaching strategy is a commitment to a complex planning, with constant training and proactivity related to student feedback; (2) abandons the practice is becoming less common, because managers tend to recommend it and there are more and more software available for specific disciplines. Its discussed also other contributions (motivations) given by respondents of the three groups that were not found in the literature. It is hoped that this work will serve (1) incentive to teachers on the use of Business Games as a teaching strategy (2) consultation by managers when they decide about purchasing simulation software. Finally, stands out that the educational success of JN depends not only on the various motivations of teachers, as well as the interest and commitment of the student.

Termos de troca, pre��o das commodities e o crescimento brasileiro : uma an��lise sob o prisma da restri����o externa

This study aims to investigate the relationship between terms of trade and the long-term growth of Brazilian economy, from the perspective of external constraint, between the period 1994 to 2014. For this purpose, it is based on Thirlwall's (1979) original contribution, in order to empirically test the terms of trade contribution for determining the Brazilian growth potential product equivalent with Balance of Payments equilibriun. Using cointegration method, which seeks to analyze the long-term relationship between the variables, and subdividing the period into two sub-periods, 1994-2004 and 2004-2014, we estimate and compare real and hypothetical income elasticities and predicted and observed growth rates, with and without the terms of trade, for each period. The obteined results show that the inclusion of terms of trade in the empirical procedure to test the validity of Thirlwall's Law lead to higher growth rates obtained by the model (hypothetical), for the entire period 1994-2014 and for the sub-period 2004 -2014. This "theoretical" relaxation of the external constraint, caused by the inclusion of the terms of trade in traditional Thirlwall's rule, overestimated the average real growth rate for these periods, while the traditional Thirlwall's Law - without terms of trade - has adapted better to the real behavior of Brazilian economy. Thus, despite having contributed potentially for the relaxation of external constraint on Brazilian growth, the effect of terms of trade may have been offset by the negative performance of other Balance of Payments components, as capital flows and interest, profits and dividends payments abroad.

A din��mica da taxa de c��mbio no Brasil face ��s opera����es swap (2002-2015)

This dissertation investigates, based on the Post-Keynesian theory and on its concept of monetary economy of production, the exchange rate behavior of the Brazilian Real in the presence of Brazilian Central Bank's interventions by means of the so-called swap transactions over 2002-2015. Initially, the work analyzes the essential properties of an open monetary economy of production and, thereafter, it presents the basic propositions of the Post-Keynesian view on the exchange rate determination, highlighting the properties of foreign exchange markets and the peculiarities of the Brazilian position into the international monetary and financial system. The research, thereby, accounts for the various segments of the Brazilian foreign exchange market. To accomplish its purpose, we first do a literature review of the Post-Keynesian literature about the topic. Then, we undertake empirical exams of the exchange rate determination using two statistical methods. On the one hand, to measure the volatility of exchange rate, we estimate Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH) and Generalized Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) models. On the other hand, to measure the variance of the exchange rate in relation to real, financial variables, and the swaps, we estimate a Vector Auto-regression (VAR) model. Both experiments are performed for the nominal and real effective exchange rates. The results show that the swaps respond to exchange rate movements, trying to offset its volatility. This reveals that the exchange rate is, at least in a certain magnitude, sensitive to swaps transactions conducted by the Central Bank. In addition, another empirical result is that the real effective exchange rate responds more to the swaps auctions than the nominal rate.

O produtor familiar na pecu��ria leiteira : limites e potencialidades

The technological change is nowadays, comprehended as a playing field which involves cultural and economic processes of appreciation and depreciation of the social aspects of family unit. The exclusion of small producers from the activity is used as an argument to characterize that in the contemporary intercapitalist competition, the family ways of production take up restrict social positions of a technical progress and of a cultural and economic appreciation. The state, a coparcener of the modernization process, has its relevance as a financing agent, a technical capacitor, an infrastructure propitiator, that is, through macro and microeconomic policies which can create sustainable conditions to permit, mainly, not only the family producer to be inserted in the activity, but, above all, to remain in it. This way, this study aims to identify and analyze the family producer, through its limits and potentialities, with a thesis that this would be the main agent responsible for boosting the Brazilian milk production in quantity and quality. Therefore, results were compared obtained from a field survey with data collection via semi-structured open interviews in a sample of 108 producers effectively respondents, namely: 59 family farmers with active DAP (research focus) and 49 employers producers the municipality of Monte Alegre de Minas - MG. Technological indices were used to identify the developmental stage of the producers, thus allowing a comparative study between them. The field research covered all rural municipality of Monte Alegre de Minas ��� MG and, the result found that the majority of family farmers presented lower rates than technological employers producers. However, it allowed us to state also that the producer family and assisted by public policies, can be the agent of transformation of dairy farming.

Padr��o de especializa����o comercial e crescimento econ��mico : uma an��lise sobre o Brasil no contexto da fragmenta����o da produ����o e das cadeias globais de valor

Globalization and technological changes that has happened since the 80s have brought remarkable changes in the industrial and commercial paradigm, which are expressed mainly in the international fragmentation of production and in the formation of Global Value Chains (GVC). This thesis sought to understand such phenomena and discuss new relevant variables in this context for a more accurate analysis of the current trade patterns not addressed by the seminal economic theories that relate trade and economic growth. It sought to evaluate how the trade specialization pattern of Brazil evolved compared to other economies (China, India, Russia, United States, Japan and selected Latin American economies) in the light of these phenomena from 1995 to 2011. Therefore, we have used the methodology of gross exports decomposition in value added measures, developed by Koopman et al. (2014), and indicators estimated from data of two global matrices I-O: a WIOT (2013) and the TiVA (2015). It was also tested two hypotheses regarding the role of these phenomena as determinants of economic growth in recent years: 1��) fragmentation and participation in GVC ensure higher growth rates for countries; 2��) the place (stage) in which the country finds itself in GVC associated with sectoral technological aspects is also important for economic growth. For this, we used dynamic panel models (Difference GMM and System GMM) for a sample of 40 countries from 2003 to 2011. The studies carried out on Brazil show that the country is no longer on the margins of these phenomena, because it shows increasing rates of participation in GVC, including in sectors considered most strategic for fragmentation. However, there is not a standard convergence of trade specialization of the country to those presented by developed countries or movements earned by China and Mexico in terms of their position and profile of participating in GVC. Another important result obtained by the thesis is the identification of these phenomena are in fact new variables relevant for economic growth, because it shows empirical evidences to support the hypothesis 1 and, partially, the hypothesis 2. A joint analysis of the estimated econometric results with the results of the descriptive analysis of the Brazilian economy, it leads us to conclude that the trade specialization pattern of the country in the context of the new trade setups is presented unfavorably to its growth strategy.

Restri����o externa, depend��ncia estrutural de commodities prim��rias e o investimento direto externo no Brasil

As the beginning of the discussion about the reprimarization process of the Brazilian exportations, or about a deindustrialization process of the country foreign sales, this study purpose that the discussion, actually, should be about the existence of the commodities structural dependence as a way to face the foreign restrictions. Therefore the intention is to show that, historically, the way that the Brazilian economy has crossed for its development depends of the foreign capital, mainly in its way of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and in the balance generated by the primary products, which make us try to understand the impact of this capital for the equilibrium of the Brazilian Payment Balance and also for the economy. These points were discussed not only based on the Brazilian classic writers as Francisco Oliveira, Caio Prado Jr. and Celso Furtado, but also using the newest studies which contributes to point the causes and consequences of the external capital dependence in the actual scenario. The conclusions acquired in the end of the study, indicates the fact that the Brazilian specialization in products of low aggregated value is not recent. Brazil is, historically, a competitive country in primary products. At the same time, the country importation always was a pressure factor of the National Payments Balance, being composed by products with more aggregated value. According to some authors, this characteristic of the Brazilian Economy will be surpassed with the economic opening process, which will attract external capital making possible the modernization of the Brazilian productive sector. Therefore, we can claim that the FDI, in the way it has been inserted in the country, does not offer the opportunity to get out of the commodities dependence, as generators of the payment balances, because the country international competitive standard didn t get any important changes, keeping itself out of the step related to the global standard which has been intensified in products with more aggregated value. The changes in the national insertion standard directed to more technological products is really important to surpass the historical scenario of commodities dependence, making the country less vulnerable to external crisis.

Padr��o de especializa����o e saldo comercial da China com Estados Unidos, Europa e ��sia no in��cio do S��culo XXI

The rise of China has been providing various effects on developed and developing countries, particularly its Asian neighbors which compete in third markets, such as the U.S., Europe and Japan this sense, the present study aimed to analyze the pattern of Chinese trade with two different groups of countries: the Asian neighbors (Asian Tigers and Dragons) and developed countries (United States, Europe and Japan) during the 2000s. To this end, this paper adopts the methodology of second breakdown of trade technological intensity proposed by Lall (2000). Furthermore, to analyze the intensity of trade between these economies as well as potential threats over their Chinese business partners close, we calculated the following indicators of trade: Trade Intensity Index (TII), Trade Orientation Index (TOI) , Intra-Industry Trade Index (ICII), Index Of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), and, finally, the Contribution To The Balance Index (ICS). The main result achieved is the existence of China\'s trade patterns differ for each group of countries, according to the type of expertise of each partner.

Esgotamento do padr��o de acumula����o de capital e pol��tica econ��mica brasileira: do II PND aos anos 2000

This work aim to show that the reach to the limits of capital accumulation, which is showing its first signs since the 60 s, has and still is exercising great importance in Brazilian economic policies. In the first chapter, we establish a reference to what is understood as the limit of capital accumulation after World War II and how the accumulation process drives itself to its own limits. In the following chapters, we detach the importance of the reached limit to the most relevant moments of Brazilian economic policy. Since the IIPND, when the first signs of influence raise in Brazilian economy, passing through the stabilizing attempts during the 80 s and 90 s and the emergence of the pro-market State in Brazil, until the 00 s, when macroeconomic prudence took shape and delimited the conduction of the country s economic policy, we will show how the limit of capital accumulation has played an important role.

Estrutura produtiva da agropecu��ria, ocupa����o e pobreza no estado de Minas Gerais no ano de 2010

This thesis aimed to contribute to the discussion about the relationship between agricultural production structure, occupation and poverty in Brazil, specifically in the state of Minas Gerais, in 2010. The issue of employment is becoming increasingly challenging in the face of ongoing modernization process in agriculture, capital intensive and labor saver looking levels ever higher production and productivity. The productive inclusion can be an effective way to exit from poverty (the work is often the only asset of the poor). In this sense, we sought to investigate what activities or groups of activities occupied a larger number of people and generated higher yields and can potentially have contributed to a lower incidence of poverty. The basis for primary data was the 2010 Population Census (microdata). To achieve the objectives we used descriptive analysis, Pearson correlation coefficients and quantile regressions. Among the main findings highlight that agriculture occupied more and generated higher overall income than ranching presented more precarious, despite having lower average incomes and income percentile values, greater heterogeneity and instability, as well as higher proportions of poor. Overall, commodities showed greater formalization and lower poor proportions. In the case of agriculture, commodities activities occupied less, generated lower mass income and middle-income (although income percentiles slightly larger and more informality) and had lower poverty indicators than non-commodity (more heterogeneous rents). In livestock, commodities had higher percentages of occupation, income (although middle-income values and percentiles slightly smaller), and smaller proportions of poor than non-commodity (more heterogenous). In terms of occupation and income stood out the farming activities unspecified (non-commodity), the coffee growing and cattle (commodities). The cultivation of coffee and cattle had the lowest poverty indicators. agricultural production diversification indicators showed positive correlations with the occupation in activities not commodities (only), but also with the proportion of poor, indigent and concentration of income. In addition, the occupation in not commodities showed positive correlations with poverty indicators. It is noteworthy that the occupations in soybeans, coffee and fruit showed negative correlation coefficients with the indicators of poverty, indigence and gini. Finally, among the agricultural activities, there was to go to occupied in agricultural activities not commodities for commodity would be 'more equalizer' (decreasing coefficients over the distribution of income) than for cattle. The occupation in livestock (mostly non-commodity) would generate greater impact on the lower income deciles, but their coefficients grow back in the last deciles, which shows its most perverse character. Among the activities that would affect more strongly the lower deciles and less the higher deciles stand out pig farming, poultry, citrus cultivation, coffee and sugar cane. The cattle and the cultivation of soy, had the highest rates, but they grow back in the last deciles, which shows a more wicked character.

Internacionaliza����o de empresas e o fechamento do capital : um estudo sobre a deslistagem no mercado brasileiro

This work contributes to the finance literature proposing to analyze the relationship between the degree of internationalization of Brazilian companies and the likelihood of delisting. Therefore, even though the internationalization as a differential, in the formulation of hypotheses and analysis of the relationship between the variables dealt with concepts and theories within the Corporate Governance, which is already established in theory when it comes to delisting. First, with a view to the theory of internalization, which gives competitive advantages to the company due the adoption internationalization strategy and in parallel to the positive effects that this strategy generates on firms performance, it was formulated an hypothesis that the degree of internationalization would be adversely related to the probability of delisting, mainly due to such benefits generated to the organization. In turn, as an alternative hypothesis of the research, it proposed a positive relationship between these variables, based on agency theory, according to which internationalization would contribute to delisting by increasing geographical separation between shareholders and managers and, consequently, agency conflicts and the difficulty of monitoring. For the achievement of objectives, as well as being included economic and financial variables and GC, it was proposed the analysis of periods of crisis, as the events of recent past of the Brazilian economy. Starting from a base model initially developed by Pour and Lasfer (2013), which later, the proxies of internationalization and crisis have been added also contemplating adjustments to the Brazilian context. The data collected include the period from 2006 to 2014 and information on active and inactive companies at Bovespa. As results, it was found negative significance between the degree of internationalization and the delisting decision, confirming the first hypothesis of the research and stating that the benefits generated by internationalization in the company generate it spreads and results that reduce the probability of delisting. By analyzing the results of control variables was still possible to observe that, even internationalization reducing the likelihood of delisting, by particular aspects of corporate governance in Brazil, such as the high ownership concentration, the benefits it generates contribute to delisting. Regarding the analysis in crisis, the consequences of the crisis of the US subprime in general market were more relevant that the occurrence of itself, unlike the Brazilian internal crisis of 2014, which was statistically significant for the analyzed event. For future researches it is suggested the expansion of database and individual treatment of the reasons adopted by a company when delisting decision.

Efeitos da internacionaliza����o no desvio da estrutura de capital alvo e na velocidade de ajuste

This dissertation investigates the effects of internationalization in two gaps related to the capital structure that have not been discussed by the Brazilian literature yet. To this, were developed two independent sections. The first examined what the effects of internationalization on the deviation from the target capital structure. The second examined what the effects of internationalization on speed of adjustment (SOA) of the capital structure. It used data from Brazil, multinational and domestic companies, from 2006 to 2014. The results of the first analysis indicate that internationalization helps reduce the difference between the target and the current debt. That is, to the extent that the level of internationalization increases; whether only export or a combination of export, assets and employees abroad, the gap between the current structure and the target structure decreases. This reduction is given as a function of internationalization as a consequence of the upstream effect of the upstream-downstream hypothesis. Thus, as the Market Timing theory, it can be seen as an opportunity for adjustment of the capital structure, and with the reduction of deviation, there is also a reduction in the cost of capital of the firm. The result of the second analysis indicates that internationalization is able to significantly increase the speed adjustment, ensuring for the multinational a faster adjustment of its capital structure. Exports increase the SOA in 9 to 23%. And when also kept active assets and employees abroad the increase is 8 to 20%. In terms of time, while domestic company takes more than three years to reduce half of the deviation that has, while multinacional companies take on average one and a half year to reduce the same proportion of the deviation. The validity of the upstream-downstream hypothesis for the effect of internationalization in SOA was confirmed by comparing the results for US companies. Thus, the phenomenon of internationalization increases SOA when companies are from less stable markets, such as Brazil; and it has a less significcative effect when companies are derived from more stable markets, because they already have a high speed of adjustmennt. In addition, the adequacy analysis of the estimators also showed the model pooled OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) presents the highest quality in predicting the SOA than the system GMM (Generalized Method of Moments). For future studies it is suggested to analyze the effect of international event, by itself, and to validate the hypothesis using samples of different markets and the use of other estimators.