Perfil exportador e crescimento econômico: uma análise de painel para economias africanas

This study aims to evaluate the relationship between the export profile and the African GDP growth rate. Chapter 1 presents the literature on the subject and studies that analyze the specific case of Africa. There seems to be a consensus that exports contribute to economic growth. However, there is no consensus on the benefits that are incorporated from exported products. The divergence lies between the approach of the Natural Resources Curse, where concentration of exports in commodities does not contribute to economic growth. Another work line supports the idea there is no such relation. Chapter 2 presents, through descriptive analysis, macroeconomic and international trade data for African economies data. Based on data from 52 countries for the period 1990-2014, it can be observed that the African continent has improved in macroeconomic terms, with increased exports and economic growth rates, suggesting a positive relationship between the variables. Trade indicators show Africa's integration into the global economy, with European Union, USA, China and some emerging countries as main partners. In addition, the analysis showed that the export is concentrated in oil and agricultural commodities. Most African countries face a negative trade balance, depending of primary products exports with low added value and imports of manufactured goods. Finally, Chapter 3 presents an empirical research using panel data analysis. The results suggest, in general, evidences that exports are important for explaining the African economic growth rate of African economies can be stimulated by the expansion of the share of exports in GDP. The estimated coefficients are positive and statistically significant in both the fixed effect estimation, as the estimation by GMM System. The estimation of growth models for fixed or random effects indicates a direct and statistically significant relationship between export oil / minerals and the growth rate of African countries. Thus, the export profile turns out to be important to determine the growth rate. The results obtained from the estimates do not corroborate the literature arguments called Curse of Natural Resources for the period analyzed, since export natural resources, especially oil and minerals, were relevant to explain the performance of the growth rate of economies.

Padrão de especialização comercial e crescimento econômico : uma análise sobre o Brasil no contexto da fragmentação da produção e das cadeias globais de valor

Globalization and technological changes that has happened since the 80s have brought remarkable changes in the industrial and commercial paradigm, which are expressed mainly in the international fragmentation of production and in the formation of Global Value Chains (GVC). This thesis sought to understand such phenomena and discuss new relevant variables in this context for a more accurate analysis of the current trade patterns not addressed by the seminal economic theories that relate trade and economic growth. It sought to evaluate how the trade specialization pattern of Brazil evolved compared to other economies (China, India, Russia, United States, Japan and selected Latin American economies) in the light of these phenomena from 1995 to 2011. Therefore, we have used the methodology of gross exports decomposition in value added measures, developed by Koopman et al. (2014), and indicators estimated from data of two global matrices I-O: a WIOT (2013) and the TiVA (2015). It was also tested two hypotheses regarding the role of these phenomena as determinants of economic growth in recent years: 1º) fragmentation and participation in GVC ensure higher growth rates for countries; 2º) the place (stage) in which the country finds itself in GVC associated with sectoral technological aspects is also important for economic growth. For this, we used dynamic panel models (Difference GMM and System GMM) for a sample of 40 countries from 2003 to 2011. The studies carried out on Brazil show that the country is no longer on the margins of these phenomena, because it shows increasing rates of participation in GVC, including in sectors considered most strategic for fragmentation. However, there is not a standard convergence of trade specialization of the country to those presented by developed countries or movements earned by China and Mexico in terms of their position and profile of participating in GVC. Another important result obtained by the thesis is the identification of these phenomena are in fact new variables relevant for economic growth, because it shows empirical evidences to support the hypothesis 1 and, partially, the hypothesis 2. A joint analysis of the estimated econometric results with the results of the descriptive analysis of the Brazilian economy, it leads us to conclude that the trade specialization pattern of the country in the context of the new trade setups is presented unfavorably to its growth strategy.

Do reconhecimento à efetividade do direito fundamental à água: diálogos entre Nicarágua e Brasil

La humanidad está en un periodo de transición paradigmática, donde aún no existe acuerdo sobre en cual periodo nos encuadramos, sí modernidad o posmodernidad, pero el debate de ahí surgido se revela útil y transversal a los dilemas que enfrenta hoy la sociedad. Uno de esos dilemas tiene que ver con el reconocimiento del agua como derecho fundamental, ciertamente la era de la información ha permitido avanzar en armar el rompecabezas de la crisis hídrica mundial y sus riesgos, lo que ha develado una realidad importante, el acceso al agua tanto en naciones económicamente desarrolladas como en las menos desarrolladas constituye aun una aspiración, son varias las causas de esto, siendo una de las más comunes la atribuida al cambio climático, sin embargo, al profundizar en la materia surgen otras causas como la falta de voluntad política a nivel nacional, los intereses económicos que dan al agua tratamiento de mercancía y a nivel internacional la existencia de luces y sombras en el campo de los derechos humanos, estas constituyen las piezas del mencionado rompecabezas, aun por armar. Mientras tanto el Derecho tiene aquí un desafío de significativa importancia, adaptarse a fin de responder adecuadamente a las nuevas realidades: riesgos de diversas índoles. Esta investigación tiene como objetivo defender la existencia del derecho fundamental al agua en el ordenamiento jurídico brasileño y nicaragüense, comparando instrumentos que puedan asegurar su efectividad. Para la realización de este trabajo se utilizó un abordaje inductivo-comparativo, fuentes bibliográficas brasileñas, nicaragüenses y de países con experiencias relevantes para la comprensión del problema y que pudieran aportar propuestas de cara al reconocimiento y efectivación del derecho fundamental al agua. Este trabajo encontró que existen ambigüedades importantes en el campo del Derecho Humano al Agua motivadas por el trabajo de agencias que defienden el derecho pero a la vez establecen coordinaciones y normativas con quienes impulsan su privatización, fue posible presentar elementos que apoyan la fundamentalidad del derecho al agua desde un punto de vista material y de vinculación con otros derechos fundamentales, pero preocupa en el caso de Brasil y Nicaragua el poco avance jurisprudencial de cara al reconocimiento y finalmente la atribución de la crisis hídrica en muchos casos a la incertidumbre climática, cuando uno de los principales desafíos se encuentra en la explotación comercial del agua.

Restrição externa, dependência estrutural de commodities primárias e o investimento direto externo no Brasil

As the beginning of the discussion about the reprimarization process of the Brazilian exportations, or about a deindustrialization process of the country foreign sales, this study purpose that the discussion, actually, should be about the existence of the commodities structural dependence as a way to face the foreign restrictions. Therefore the intention is to show that, historically, the way that the Brazilian economy has crossed for its development depends of the foreign capital, mainly in its way of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and in the balance generated by the primary products, which make us try to understand the impact of this capital for the equilibrium of the Brazilian Payment Balance and also for the economy. These points were discussed not only based on the Brazilian classic writers as Francisco Oliveira, Caio Prado Jr. and Celso Furtado, but also using the newest studies which contributes to point the causes and consequences of the external capital dependence in the actual scenario. The conclusions acquired in the end of the study, indicates the fact that the Brazilian specialization in products of low aggregated value is not recent. Brazil is, historically, a competitive country in primary products. At the same time, the country importation always was a pressure factor of the National Payments Balance, being composed by products with more aggregated value. According to some authors, this characteristic of the Brazilian Economy will be surpassed with the economic opening process, which will attract external capital making possible the modernization of the Brazilian productive sector. Therefore, we can claim that the FDI, in the way it has been inserted in the country, does not offer the opportunity to get out of the commodities dependence, as generators of the payment balances, because the country international competitive standard didn t get any important changes, keeping itself out of the step related to the global standard which has been intensified in products with more aggregated value. The changes in the national insertion standard directed to more technological products is really important to surpass the historical scenario of commodities dependence, making the country less vulnerable to external crisis.