Termos de troca, preço das commodities e o crescimento brasileiro : uma análise sob o prisma da restrição externa

This study aims to investigate the relationship between terms of trade and the long-term growth of Brazilian economy, from the perspective of external constraint, between the period 1994 to 2014. For this purpose, it is based on Thirlwall's (1979) original contribution, in order to empirically test the terms of trade contribution for determining the Brazilian growth potential product equivalent with Balance of Payments equilibriun. Using cointegration method, which seeks to analyze the long-term relationship between the variables, and subdividing the period into two sub-periods, 1994-2004 and 2004-2014, we estimate and compare real and hypothetical income elasticities and predicted and observed growth rates, with and without the terms of trade, for each period. The obteined results show that the inclusion of terms of trade in the empirical procedure to test the validity of Thirlwall's Law lead to higher growth rates obtained by the model (hypothetical), for the entire period 1994-2014 and for the sub-period 2004 -2014. This "theoretical" relaxation of the external constraint, caused by the inclusion of the terms of trade in traditional Thirlwall's rule, overestimated the average real growth rate for these periods, while the traditional Thirlwall's Law - without terms of trade - has adapted better to the real behavior of Brazilian economy. Thus, despite having contributed potentially for the relaxation of external constraint on Brazilian growth, the effect of terms of trade may have been offset by the negative performance of other Balance of Payments components, as capital flows and interest, profits and dividends payments abroad.

Perfil exportador e crescimento econômico: uma análise de painel para economias africanas

This study aims to evaluate the relationship between the export profile and the African GDP growth rate. Chapter 1 presents the literature on the subject and studies that analyze the specific case of Africa. There seems to be a consensus that exports contribute to economic growth. However, there is no consensus on the benefits that are incorporated from exported products. The divergence lies between the approach of the Natural Resources Curse, where concentration of exports in commodities does not contribute to economic growth. Another work line supports the idea there is no such relation. Chapter 2 presents, through descriptive analysis, macroeconomic and international trade data for African economies data. Based on data from 52 countries for the period 1990-2014, it can be observed that the African continent has improved in macroeconomic terms, with increased exports and economic growth rates, suggesting a positive relationship between the variables. Trade indicators show Africa's integration into the global economy, with European Union, USA, China and some emerging countries as main partners. In addition, the analysis showed that the export is concentrated in oil and agricultural commodities. Most African countries face a negative trade balance, depending of primary products exports with low added value and imports of manufactured goods. Finally, Chapter 3 presents an empirical research using panel data analysis. The results suggest, in general, evidences that exports are important for explaining the African economic growth rate of African economies can be stimulated by the expansion of the share of exports in GDP. The estimated coefficients are positive and statistically significant in both the fixed effect estimation, as the estimation by GMM System. The estimation of growth models for fixed or random effects indicates a direct and statistically significant relationship between export oil / minerals and the growth rate of African countries. Thus, the export profile turns out to be important to determine the growth rate. The results obtained from the estimates do not corroborate the literature arguments called Curse of Natural Resources for the period analyzed, since export natural resources, especially oil and minerals, were relevant to explain the performance of the growth rate of economies.

Sistemas de cálculo, análise e operação virtual: interferências de campos elétricos e magnéticos produzidas por estações radio base de acesso múltiplo por divisão de código em banda larga - WCDMA

In this work it was developed mathematical resolutions taking as parameter maximum intensity values for the interference analysis of electric and magnetic fields and was given two virtual computer system that supports families of CDMA and WCDMA technologies. The first family were developed computational resources to solve electric and magnetic field calculations and power densities in Radio Base stations , with the use of CDMA technology in the 800 MHz band , taking into account the permissible values referenced by the Commission International Protection on non-Ionizing Radiation . The first family is divided into two segments of calculation carried out in virtual operation. In the first segment to compute the interference field radiated by the base station with input information such as radio channel power; Gain antenna; Radio channel number; Operating frequency; Losses in the cable; Attenuation of direction; Minimum Distance; Reflections. Said computing system allows to quickly and without the need of implementing instruments for measurements, meet the following calculated values: Effective Radiated Power; Sector Power Density; Electric field in the sector; Magnetic field in the sector; Magnetic flux density; point of maximum permissible exposure of electric field and power density. The results are shown in charts for clarity of view of power density in the industry, as well as the coverage area definition. The computer module also includes folders specifications antennas, cables and towers used in cellular telephony, the following manufacturers: RFS World, Andrew, Karthein and BRASILSAT. Many are presented "links" network access "Internet" to supplement the cable specifications, antennas, etc. . In the second segment of the first family work with more variables , seeking to perform calculations quickly and safely assisting in obtaining results of radio signal loss produced by ERB . This module displays screens representing propagation systems denominated "A" and "B". By propagating "A" are obtained radio signal attenuation calculations in areas of urban models , dense urban , suburban , and rural open . In reflection calculations are present the reflection coefficients , the standing wave ratio , return loss , the reflected power ratio , as well as the loss of the signal by mismatch impedance. With the spread " B" seek radio signal losses in the survey line and not targeted , the effective area , the power density , the received power , the coverage radius , the conversion levels and the gain conversion systems radiant . The second family of virtual computing system consists of 7 modules of which 5 are geared towards the design of WCDMA and 2 technology for calculation of telephone traffic serving CDMA and WCDMA . It includes a portfolio of radiant systems used on the site. In the virtual operation of the module 1 is compute-: distance frequency reuse, channel capacity with noise and without noise, Doppler frequency, modulation rate and channel efficiency; Module 2 includes computes the cell area, thermal noise, noise power (dB), noise figure, signal to noise ratio, bit of power (dBm); with the module 3 reaches the calculation: breakpoint, processing gain (dB) loss in the space of BTS, noise power (w), chip period and frequency reuse factor. Module 4 scales effective radiated power, sectorization gain, voice activity and load effect. The module 5 performs the calculation processing gain (Hz / bps) bit time, bit energy (Ws). Module 6 deals with the telephone traffic and scales 1: traffic volume, occupancy intensity, average time of occupancy, traffic intensity, calls completed, congestion. Module 7 deals with two telephone traffic and allows calculating call completion and not completed in HMM. Tests were performed on the mobile network performance field for the calculation of data relating to: CINP , CPI , RSRP , RSRQ , EARFCN , Drop Call , Block Call , Pilot , Data Bler , RSCP , Short Call, Long Call and Data Call ; ECIO - Short Call and Long Call , Data Call Troughput . As survey were conducted surveys of electric and magnetic field in an ERB , trying to observe the degree of exposure to non-ionizing radiation they are exposed to the general public and occupational element. The results were compared to permissible values for health endorsed by the ICNIRP and the CENELEC .