Analysis of climate change scenarios based on modelling of the seasonal dynamics of a Danubian copepod species

Climate change is one of the most crucial ecological problems of our age with great influence. Seasonal dynamics of aquatic communities are — among others — regulated by the climate, especially by temperature. In this case study we attempted the simulation modelling of the seasonal dynamics of a copepod species, Cyclops vicinus, which ranks among the zooplankton community, based on a quantitative database containing ten years of data from the Danube’s Göd area. We set up a simulation model predicting the abundance of Cyclops vicinus by considering only temperature as it affects the abundance of population. The model was adapted to eight years of daily temperature data observed between 1981 and 1994 and was tested successfully with the additional data of two further years. The model was run with the data series of climate change scenarios specified for the period around 2070- 2100. On the other hand we looked for the geographically analogous areas with the Göd region which are mostly similar to the future climate of the Göd area. By means of the above-mentioned points we can get a view how the climate of the region will change by the end of the 21st century, and the way the seasonal dynamics of a chosen planktonic crustacean species may follow this change. According to our results the area of Göd will be similar to the northern region of Greece. The maximum abundance of the examined species occurs a month to one and a half months earlier, moreover larger variances are expected between years in respect of the abundance. The deviations are expected in the direction of smaller or significantly larger abundance not observed earlier.

Composition of zooplankton assemblages along the Zagyva River

The species composition, longitudinal distribution and seasonal dynamics of zooplankton were studied in the Zagyva River, Hungary. A total of 108 taxa was recorded from which 61 were new for the river. Rotatoria was the most abundant group, microcrustaceans were less important, only nauplii and copepodites were represented in similar individual numbers. Frequent species included Anuraeopsis fissa, Pompholyx spp., Keratella cochlearis, Brachionus angularis, Bdelloida sp., Bosmina longirostris. Dominance of cosmopolitan species was observed both in the river and its reservoir, and species characteristic of eutrophic waters were of major importance in the latter. There was a downstream decrease in zooplankton densities, which was explained by modified conditions. The relatively large number of individuals in autumn months, and the characteristic large number of individuals in the upper section contrasted general findings of potamoplankton dynamics. On the basis of the species abundance matrix, three river sections can be distinguished (upper, middle, lower section). Due to waste water discharges - received from the Tarján Stream - we found extremely high number of individuals and the lowest diversity at the sampling site Nagybátony (148 rkm).

Climate change and freshwater zooplankton: what does it boil down to?

Recently, major advances in the climate–zooplankton interface have been made some of which appeared to receive much attention in a broader audience of ecologists as well. In contrast to the marine realm, however, we still lack a more holistic summary of recent knowledge in freshwater. We discuss climate change-related variation in physical and biological attributes of lakes and running waters, high-order ecological functions, and subsequent alteration in zooplankton abundance, phenology, distribution, body size, community structure, life history parameters, and behavior by focusing on community level responses. The adequacy of large-scale climatic indices in ecology has received considerable support and provided a framework for the interpretation of community and species level responses in freshwater zooplankton. Modeling perspectives deserve particular consideration, since this promising stream of ecology is of particular applicability in climate change research owing to the inherently predictive nature of this field. In the future, ecologists should expand their research on species beyond daphnids, should address questions as to how different intrinsic and extrinsic drivers interact, should move beyond correlative approaches toward more mechanistic explanations, and last but not least, should facilitate transfer of biological data both across space and time.