Új vektoriális betegségek megjelenésének lehetősége, és a már őshonos betegségek jelentőségének növekedése a klímaváltozás következtében. A XXI. század egészségügyi és hadászati biztonságát fenyegető hazardok

Az ízeltlábúak által terjesztett fertőző betegségek egyre emelkedő mértékben jelentenek majd veszélyt Európa mérsékelt övi lakosságának egészségi állapotára nézve. A klímaváltozás következtében meghosszabbodó vegetációs időszak, és az emelkedő átlaghőmérséklet a már jelen lévő betegség (Pl. Lyme), és számos, a lakosság számára új, meleg égövi betegség megtelepedését, vagy újra megjelenését okozhatja, mint amilyen például a leishmaniasis vagy a malária. A jövőben nem csak a civil lakosság egészségi állapotát, de a hadsereg személyi állományának egészségét és a hadműveletek biztonságát is veszélyeztethetik a vektoriális megbetegedések. _____ Emerging vectorial diseases threaten the population of the temperate areas of Europe. Due to climate change the increasing seasonal mean temperatures and the prolongation of the potential activity period of arthropod vectorial organisms will enhance the importance of the tick-borne diseases (eg. Lyme disease) and will facilitate the expansion of new or re-emerging vectorial diseases, such as leishmaniasis or malaria. These serious vectorial diseases can cause notable hazard not only for citizens but for the personnels and may endanger the safety of the operations, too.

Európai lepkeszúnyog fajok potenciális elterjedése a 21. században

Leishmaniasis is a typical vectorial disease transmitted by Psycodidae vectors (Lutzomyans, Phlebotomus species). The worldwide observed 1,5-2 million new cases and 60,000 death caused by Leishmania parasites per year make leishmaniasis is one of the most important vectorial disease in the tropicals and warm temperate areas of the World. In the human environment dogs and cats are the most important hosts of the different leishmania agents. The different leishmania species cause symptomatically cutan or visceral disease forms, but many other type of the disease has recognised. Phlebotomus species are sensitive to climatic patterns, they require hight relative air humidity, mild winters and long and warm vegetation period, but the environmental requirements of the species naturally is not the same. Due to climate change in the near future the climate of Western and Central Europe could allow the colonisation of these highly populated areas with also the vectors and the parasites. Our aim was to analyse the environmental patterns of the current distribution area of 8 important sand flies (P. ariasi, P. perniciosus, P. perfiliewi, P. papatasi, P. tobbi, P. neglectus, P. similis and P. sergenti) using the 1960-1990 period’s climate as reference. Using climate envelope modeling we determined these climatic characters and using the REMO climate projection we created the recent and the near-future (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) potential distribution area of the sand flies. The current known area of many Phlebotomus species restricted either to the western or to the eastern Mediterranean Basin. We found that their climatic requirements are could not explain their segregation, it is maybe the consequence of their evolutionary history (geographical barriers and paleoclimatic history). By the end of the 2060’s most parts of Western Europe can be colonized by sand flies, mostly by P. ariasi and P. pernicosus. P. ariasi showed the greatest potential northward expansion. Our model resulted 1 to 2 months prolongation of the potentially active period of P. neglectus P. papatasi and P. perniciosus for the 2070’s in Southern Hungary. As the climate becomes drier and warmer, sand flies will occupy more and more parts of Hungary. Our findings confirm the concerns that leishmanisais can become a real hazard for the major part of the European population to the end of the 21th century and the Carpathian Basin is a particularly vulnerable area.