Informatika, telekommunikáció és gazdasági stabilitás (Information technology, telecommunications and economic stability)

Fizikai példákon és matematikai modelleken bemutatjuk, hogy a rendszerek működésének hatékonyságnövekedése instabilitást eredményezhet. Megvizsgáljuk, hogy az informatika és a telekommunikáció fejlődése okozhat-e rendszerszintű instabilitást, illetve milyen gazdasági eszközök vannak a stabilitás fenntartására. / === / Using examples from physics and mathematical modeling, the paper shows that increasing efficiency in systems can lead to instability. The question thus arises whether the development of information and telecommunication technology can lead to instability in the economic system. The policy tools used to maintain stability are also discussed.

A Harrod modell strukturális stabilitása (Structural stability of the Harrod model)

In this study it is shown that the nontrivial hyperbolic fixed point of a nonlinear dynamical system, which is formulated by means of the adaptive expectations, corresponds to the unstable equilibrium of Harrod. We prove that this nonlinear dynamical (in the sense of Harrod) model is structurally stable under suitable economic conditions. In the case of structural stability, small changes of the functions (C1-perturbations of the vector field) describing the expected and the true time variation of the capital coefficients do not influence the qualitative properties of the endogenous variables, that is, although the trajectories may slightly change, their structure is the same as that of the unperturbed one, and therefore these models are suitable for long-time predictions. In this situation the critique of Lucas or Engel is not valid. There is no topological conjugacy between the perturbed and unperturbed models; the change of the growth rate between two levels may require different times for the perturbed and unperturbed models.

Stability of Ampelometric Characteristics of Vitis vinifera L. cv. 'Syrah' and 'Sauvignon blanc' Leaves: Impact of Within-vineyard Variability and Pruning Method/Bud Load

Historically, grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) leaf characterisation has been a driving force in the identification of cultivars. In this study, ampelometric (foliometric) analysis was done on leaf samples collected from hand-pruned, mechanically pruned and minimally pruned ‘Sauvignon blanc’ and ‘Syrah’ vines to estimate the impact of within-vineyard variability and a change in bud load on the stability of leaf properties. The results showed that within-vineyard variability of ampelometric characteristics was high within a cultivar, irrespective of bud load. In terms of the O.I.V. coding system, zero to four class differences were observed between minimum and maximum values of each characteristic. The value of variability of each characteristic was different between the three levels of bud load and the two cultivars. With respect to bud load, the number of shoots per vine had a significant effect on the characteristics of the leaf laminae. Single leaf area and lengths of veins changed significantly for both cultivars, irrespective of treatment, while angle between veins proved to be a stable characteristic. A large number of biometric data can be recorded on a single leaf; the data measured on several leaves, however, are not necessarily unique for a specific cultivar. The leaf characteristics analysed in this study can be divided into two groups according to the response to a change in bud load, i.e. stable (angles between the veins, depths of sinuses) and variable (length of the veins, length of the petiole, single leaf area). The variable characteristics are not recommended to be used in cultivar identification, unless the pruning method/bud load is known.

Svájci rendszerű sakk csapatversenyek rangsorolása (Ranking in Swiss system chess team tournaments)

A cikk a páros összehasonlításokon alapuló pontozási eljárásokat alkalmazza svájci rendszerű sakk csapatversenyek eredményének meghatározására. Bemutatjuk a nem körmérkőzéses esetben felmerülő kérdéseket, az egyéni és csapatversenyek jellemzőit, valamint a hivatalos lexikografikus rendezések hibáit. Axiomatikus alapokon rangsorolási problémaként modellezzük a bajnokságokat, definícióinkat összekapcsoljuk a pontszám, az általánosított sorösszeg és a legkisebb négyzetek módszerének tulajdonságaival. A javasolt eljárást két sakkcsapat Európa-bajnokság részletes elemzésével illusztráljuk. A végső rangsorok összehasonlítását távolságfüggvények segítségével végezzük el, majd a sokdimenziós skálázás révén ábrázoljuk azokat. A hivatalos sorrendtől való eltérés okait a legkisebb négyzetek módszerének dekompozíciójával tárjuk fel. A sorrendeket három szempont, az előrejelző képesség, a mintailleszkedés és a robusztusság alapján értékeljük, és a legkisebb négyzetek módszerének alkalmas eredménymátrixszal történő használata mellett érvelünk. ____ The paper uses paired comparison-based scoring procedures in order to determine the result of Swiss system chess team tournaments. We present the main challenges of ranking in these tournaments, the features of individual and team competitions as well as the failures of official lexicographical orders. The tournament is represented as a ranking problem, our model is discussed with respect to the properties of the score, generalised row sum and least squares methods. The proposed method is illustrated with a detailed analysis of the two recent chess team European championships. Final rankings are compared through their distances and visualized by multidimensional scaling (MDS). Differences to official ranking are revealed due to the decomposition of least squares method. Rankings are evaluated by prediction accuracy, retrodictive performance, and stability. The paper argues for the use of least squares method with an appropriate generalised results matrix favouring match points.

Ranking in Swiss system chess team tournaments

The paper uses paired comparison-based scoring procedures for ranking the participants of a Swiss system chess team tournament. We present the main challenges of ranking in Swiss system, the features of individual and team competitions as well as the failures of official lexicographical orders. The tournament is represented as a ranking problem, our model is discussed with respect to the properties of the score, generalized row sum and least squares methods. The proposed procedure is illustrated with a detailed analysis of the two recent chess team European championships. Final rankings are compared by their distances and visualized with multidimensional scaling (MDS). Differences to official ranking are revealed by the decomposition of least squares method. Rankings are evaluated by prediction accuracy, retrodictive performance, and stability. The paper argues for the use of least squares method with a results matrix favoring match points.

The financial stability and access to financing of SMEs in Hungary

The present study was prepared within the framework of cooperation between the Competitiveness Research Centre, operating within the Institute of Business Economics of Corvinus University of Budapest, and the National Association of Entrepreneurs, based on a commission from the latter. Th e goal of the study was to survey the self-financing capabilities and borrowing opportunities of majority Hungarian-owned small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and to identify potential problems. The results of the research revealed that the high proportion of owner’s equity in the financing structure is not due to difficulties with borrowing, but because enterprises that cover their fi nancing primarily from their own resources have other financing opportunities at their disposal. Although general satisfaction with banks shows a diminishing tendency, it can still be interpreted favourably. The majority of companies have not encountered serious borrowing difficulties. With regard to the system of competitive tenders, company managers have sensed some improvement, but general satisfaction is still lacking. Although the research results suggest that the primary obstacle to growth in 2013 was not the lack of credit or external funding, it is important to emphasize that start-ups, young enterprises and micro-enterprises, which struggle the most with financing worries, were not represented in the analysed database.