Az ügyfélszerzési mód hatásának vizsgálata a vevőelégedettségre és a lojalitásra a szervezeti piacon (Analyzing the impact of the customer acquisition mode to the customer satisfaction and loyalty on the corporate market – assessing the effect of recommendation with applying structural equation modelling)

A kutatás célja a marketingeszközök hosszú távú hatásának pontosabb megértése szervezetközi viszonylatban a vevőértékelési modellek egyik nehezen számszerűsíthető tényezője, az ajánlás hatásának vizsgálata által. A hatások elemzésére a strukturális egyenlőségek módszerét (Structural Equation Modelling) alkalmazta a szerző. Rámutatott, hogy az ajánlással szerzett ügyfelek elégedettebbek, lojálisabbak és gyakrabban ajánlják a vállalatot a más módon szerzett ügyfeleknél. Az összefüggések feltárása és bizonyítása különösen az ajánlás kumulatív hatása miatt jelentős. Az eredmények gyakorlati alkalmazásával lehetőség nyílik az ügyfélkör differenciáltabb, értékalapú szegmentációjára, amely pontosabb célcsoport-meghatározást lesz lehetővé, és hosszú távon hozzájárul a vállalat optimális ügyfélportfóliójának kialakításához. ______ The research is aimed at more precise understanding of longterm effects of marketing tools in business to business relations by analysing the impacts of recommendation potential, one of the hardly measurable factors of customer value concept. Structural Equation Modelling is applied for conducting effect analysis. The results show that customers acquired with recommendation are more satisfied, more loyal, and make more recommendation that other customer. These results are more interesting if we take the cumulative effect of recommendation in account. They provide bases for a more differentiated segmentation of customers, which results in a more accurate identification of target groups. In the long-run, the application of the customer-value concept considerably contributes to creating an optimal customer portfolio for companies.

Analyzing interrelated stochastic trend and seasonality on the example of energy trading data

The correct modelling of long- and short-term seasonality is a very interesting issue. The choice between the deterministic and stochastic modelling of trend and seasonality and their implications are as relevant as the case of deterministic and stochastic trends itself. The study considers the special case when the stochastic trend and seasonality do not evolve independently and the usual differencing filters do not apply. The results are applied to the day-ahead (spot) trading data of some main European energy exchanges (power and natural gas).

Analyzing interrelated stochastic trend and seasonality on the example of energy trading data

The correct modelling of long- and short-term seasonality is a very interesting issue. The choice between the deterministic and stochastic modelling of trend and seasonality and their implications are as relevant as the case of deterministic and stochastic trends itself. The study considers the special case when the stochastic trend and seasonality do not evolve independently and the usual differencing filters do not apply. The results are applied to the day-ahead (spot) trading data of some main European energy exchanges (power and natural gas).

Introduction of soft budget constraint as an analyzing tool into public management. The case of the Hungarian public administration reform

Public management reforms are usually underpinned by arguments that they will make the public administration system more effective and efficient. In practice, however, it is very hard to determine whether a given reform will improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the public administration system in the long run. Here, I shall examine how the concept of the soft budget constraint (SBC) introduced by János Kornai (Kornai 1979, 1986; Kornai, Maskin & Roland 2003) can be applied to this problem. In the following, I shall describe the Hungarian public administration reforms implemented by the Orbán government from 2010 onward and analyze its reforms, focusing on which measures harden and which ones soften the budget constraint of the actors of the Hungarian public administration system. In the literature of economics, there is some evidence-based knowledge on how to harden/soften the budget constraint, which improves/reduces the effectiveness and hence the efficiency of the given system. By using the concept of SBC, I also hope to shed some light on the rationale behind the Hungarian government’s introduction of such a contradictory reform package. Previously, the concept of SBC was utilized narrowly in public management studies, mostly in the field of fiscal federalism. My goal is to apply the concept to a broader area of public management studies. My conclusion is that the concept of SBC can significantly contribute to public management studies by deepening our knowledge on the reasons behind the success and failure of public administration reforms.