Designed for Patience. The Significance of International Factors in the Ukrainian and Belarusian Transitions

This paper focuses on Belarus in order to find explanation as to why could Lukashenko remain the authoritarian leader of Belarus, while in Ukraine the position of the political elite had proved less stable and collapsed in 2004. We seek to determine whether the internal factors (macroeconomic conditions, standard of living, the oppressive nature of the political system) play a significant role in the operation of the domino effect. This article emphasises the determining role of immanent internal factors, thus the political stability in Belarus can be explained by the role of the suppressing political regime, the hindrance of democratic rights and the relatively good living conditions that followed the transformational recession. Whilst in Ukraine, the markedly different circumstances brought forth the success of the Orange Revolution.

Az agrárkereskedelem változása Magyarország és az Európai Unió között a csatlakozás után (The post-accession change in agricultural trading between Hungary and the EU)

2004-ben Magyarország kilenc közép-kelet-európai országgal együtt csatlakozott az Európai Unióhoz, ami számos változást idézett elő az agrárkereskedelem terén. A cikk célja, hogy a legfrissebb adatok és a szakirodalmi fejlemények tükrében bemutassa, hogyan alakult Magyarországon a mezőgazdasági alapanyagok és a feldolgozott termékek kereskedelme az Európai Unióval. A megnyilvánuló komparatív előnyök módszerét alkalmazva a cikk számos következtetésre jutott. Először is világossá vált, hogy a csatlakozás növelte az agrárkereskedelem intenzitását, ám negatív hatással volt a kereskedelem egyenlegére. Kimutatható továbbá, hogy Magyarország az alacsony hozzáadott értékű alapanyagexportra és a magas hozzáadott értékű feldolgozott termékek importjára koncentrált a csatlakozás után, noha ezek komparatív előnyei nagymértékben megváltoztak egy hatékony alkalmazkodási folyamat következtében. A változások tényét támasztják alá a különböző rövid és hosszú távú stabilitásvizsgálatok is, amelyek az agrártermékek megnövekedett versenyére utalnak az EU-15 piacán. Agrárpolitikai szempontból az elemzések alátámasztják a strukturális reformok szükségességét. / === / Numerous changes in agricultural trading from the EU accession of Hungary and nine other Central-East European countries in 2004. The article sets out to present, in the light of the latest figures and written contributions, how Hungary’s EU trade in agricultural raw and semi-processed products developed thereafter. It uses the method of manifest comparative advantages to reach its conclusions. First, it became clear that accession increased the intensity of agricultural trading, although it had a detrimental effect on the trade balance. It also appeared that post-accession Hungary was concentrating on exports of basic materials of low added value and imports of processed articles with high added value, although these comparative advantages were much altered by an effective process of adaptation. The fact of the changes is supported by various short and long-term stability examinations, which point to increased competition for agricultural products on EU15 markets. From the policy point of view, the analyses support the need for structural reforms.

Zoocoenological state of microhabitats and its seasonal dynamics in an aquatic macroinvertebrate assembly (Hydrobiological case studies on lake Balaton, No. 1.)

In the years 2002, 2003 and 2004 we collected samples of macroinvertebrates on a total of 36 occasions in Badacsony bay, in areas of open water (in the years 2003 and 2004 reed-grassy) as well as populated by reed (Phragmites australis) and cattail (Typha angustifolia). Samples were taken using a stiff hand net. The sampling site includes three microhabitats differentiated only by the aquatic plants inhabiting these areas. Our data was gathered from processing 208 individual samples. The quantity of macroinvertebrates is represented by biovolume value based on volume estimates. We can identify taxa in abundant numbers found in all water types and ooze; as well as groups associated with individual microhabitats with various aquatic plants. We can observe a notable difference between the years in the volume of invertebrate macrofauna caused by the drop of water level, and the multiplication of submerged macrophytes. There are smaller differences between the samples taken in reeds and cattail stands. In the second half of 2003 – which was a year of drought – the Najas marina appeared in open waters and allowed to support larger quantities of macroinvertebrates. In 2004 with higher water levels, the Potamogeton perfoliatus occurring in the same area has had an even more significant effect. This type of reed-grass may support the most macroinvertebrates during the summer. From the aspect of diversity relations we may suspect different characteristics. The reeds sampling site proved to be the richest, while the cattail microhabitat is close behind, open water (with submerged macrophytes) is the least diverse microhabitat.