Kamatlábak és árszint kis, nyitott gazdaságban = Interest rates and price levels in a small open economy

A tanulmány azt vizsgálja, hogy a különböző kamatlábaknak milyen hatásai vannak az árszintre, illetve a nominális árakra egy nyitott elsősorban kis, nyitott gazdaságban szabad tőkeáramlás mellett. Míg a zárt gazdaságban csupán a nominális és reálkamatláb megkülönböztetése a lényeges, nyitott gazdaságban a kamatlábak vizsgálatakor meg kell fontolnunk a kamatlábparitás kérdését is. Tisztáznunk kell a reálkamatláb összetevőit, amelyben fontos szerepet kap mind az árfolyam-begyűrűzés (pass-through), mind pedig a kockázati prémium mértéke. A kamatlábhatások vizsgálatakor először azt a mechanizmust elemezzük, amely által a kamatláb befolyásolja a tartós jószágok költségét (explicit vagy implicit bérleti díját). Másodszor az exportszektor termelési döntése és a hazai kamatláb viszonyára vonatkozó mechanizmust vizsgáljuk. Belátjuk, hogy az exportáló szektor döntései függetlenek lehetnek a belföldi kamatlábaktól. Harmadszor bizonyos árazási viselkedéseket tanulmányozunk. Bebizonyítjuk, hogy a kamatláb olyan növelése, ami nem változtat a jelenlegi árfolyamon, árszintnövelő az importőr ország számára. Megfogalmazható az a nézet, hogy ha van is a kamatlábaknak keresleti hatása a zárt gazdaságban, a kis, nyitott gazdaságban ez vélhetőleg sokkal gyengébb. _____ The study examines what effects various interest rates have on the price level and nomi-nal prices in an open (primarily small) economy with free flows of capital. A closed economy calls for a distinction only between nominal and real rates of interest, but in an open economy, questions of interest-rate parity have to be considered as well. It is nec-essary to clarify the factors behind the real interest rate important for price-level pass-through and for the scale of risk premium. Analysis of interest-rate effects begins with the mechanism whereby the interest rate influences the cost of fixed assets (explicit or implicit rents). Secondly, the mechanism behind the relation of export-sector production decisions and domestic interest rates is examined. It emerges that decisions of the export sector are independent of domestic interest rates. Thirdly, certain types of pricing behav-iour are studied. It is shown that a rise in the interest rate that does not alter the present exchange rate is a price-raising factor for the importing country. It can be assumed that if the interest rate has a demand effect in a closed economy, this will presumably be much weaker in a small open economy.

The issue of macroeconomic closure revisited and extended

Léon Walras (1874) already had realized that his neo-classical general equilibrium model could not accommodate autonomous investment. Sen analysed the same issue in a simple, one-sector macroeconomic model of a closed economy. He showed that fixing investment in the model, built strictly on neo-classical assumptions, would make the system overdetermined, thus, one should loosen some neo-classical condition of competitive equilibrium. He analysed three not neo-classical “closure options”, which could make the model well determined in the case of fixed investment. Others later extended his list and it showed that the closure dilemma arises in the more complex computable general equilibrium (CGE) models as well, as does the choice of adjustment mechanism assumed to bring about equilibrium at the macro level. By means of numerical models, it was also illustrated that the adopted closure rule can significantly affect the results of policy simulations based on a CGE model. Despite these warnings, the issue of macro closure is often neglected in policy simulations. It is, therefore, worth revisiting the issue and demonstrating by further examples its importance, as well as pointing out that the closure problem in the CGE models extends well beyond the problem of how to incorporate autonomous investment into a CGE model. Several closure rules are discussed in this paper and their diverse outcomes are illustrated by numerical models calibrated on statistical data. First, the analyses is done in a one-sector model, similar to Sen’s, but extended into a model of an open economy. Next, the same analyses are repeated using a fully-fledged multisectoral CGE model, calibrated on the same statistical data. Comparing the results obtained by the two models it is shown that although, using the same closure option, they generate quite similar results in terms of the direction and – to a somewhat lesser extent – of the magnitude of change in the main macro variables, the predictions of the multi-sectoral CGE model are clearly more realistic and balanced.

Megtakarítások és külső finanszírozás az amerikai gazdaságban. A hitelpiaci válság háttere (1997-2007) (Savings and external financing in the American economy. The background to the credit-market crisis (1997–2007))

A tanulmány nem az aktuális hitelpiaci válság enyhítésének kérdésével foglalkozik, hanem az amerikai gazdaság elmúlt négy évtizedének általános és az utolsó tíz évének konkrét beruházási-megtakarítási és növekedési tendenciáit igyekszik feltárni. Azt vizsgálja, hogy milyen mélyebb, belföldi eredetű szerkezeti okai vannak a nemzetközivé dagadt jelzáloghitel-válságnak. A cikk a nyitott gazdaság külső finanszírozással összefüggő mérlegazonosságainak alapján arra a következtetésre jut, hogy az ingatlanpiaci visszaesés és a kibocsátás zsugorodása az Egyesült Államok gazdaságában már több mint másfél évtizede kialakult kedvezőtlen, de még tovább romló belföldi megtakarítási folyamatok következménye. A jelzálogpiac krízise és a lakásépítés drámai visszaesése a túlfogyasztásra és túlhitelezésre ösztönző pénzügyi környezet eredménye. A lakáspiaci és a hitelezési ciklusok pénzügyi innovációkkal történő megnyújtása inkább növelte, mint csökkentette a kibocsátásingadozás érzékenységét. A legfőbb hitelezők Kína, Japán, Németország inkább dolláralapú amerikai vállalati felvásárlásokkal ellensúlyozták a dollárgyengülésből elszenvedett veszteségeiket. 1997-2007 között az Amerikából külföldön befektetett dolláraktívák - javarészt a valuta leértékelődése nyomán - jelentős hozamemelkedést élveztek, és számottevően tompították a belföldön képződött jövedelmek csökkenését. A dollárleértékelődés az eszköz- (és nemcsak az áruexport) oldalon is előnyöket hozott számos nagyvállalatnak. / === / Rather than dealing with the immediate policy steps to dampen the crisis, this paper attempts to reveal the worsening savings/consumption pattern of the US economy over the last ten years. Based on the closed logic of open-economy GDP-accounting, it argues that the current crisis is deeply rooted in shrinking public and private savings trends discernible as early as 1997. The current mortgage-market crisis and deep fall in new residential housing are products of a distorted financial environment that encourages over-borrowing and over-consumption. Expansion of the credit cycle through successive financial innovations has increased, not decreased output volatility. But the main foreign lenders to the US—Japan, China and Germany—have managed to offset their losses on US securities by buying into US companies. Large US firms have also benefited from rapid dollar depreciation as USD-denominated yields on their foreign assets experienced strong run-ups. The weak dollar has also helped American firms with large assets on foreign markets. So there were strong benefits for the US, not just on the goods-export side, but on the asset side, an aspect rarely emphasized.

Post-Crisis Lessons for Open Economies

In a systemic perspective, what are the primary transmitters of global competitiveness with the proper coordination mechanism? What are the systemic impacts of the U.S. economy on world markets? Will the United States stay the main engine of world economic growth for quite some time to come, or at least in the current decade? Will and should the United States, as the single largest open economy of the world, be in some way responsible for the provision of global economic stability as a valuable public good? Was the recent crisis predictable? These are the main questions addressed, all of which are answered in a new global context, and the responses are based on some known principles of international economics and economic history.

Carbon emissions locked - in trade

In recent years there has been a growing concern about the emission trade balance of countries. It is due to the fact that countries with an open economy are active players in the international trade, though trade is not only a major factor in forging a country’s economic structure anymore, but it does contribute to the movement of embodied emissions beyond the country borders. This issue is especially relevant from the carbon accounting policy’s point of view, as it is known that the production-based principle is in effect now in the Kyoto agreement. The study aims at revealing the interdependence of countries on international trade and its environmental impacts, and how the carbon accounting method plays a crucial role in evaluating a country’s environmental performance and its role in the climate mitigation processes. The input-output models are used in the methodology, as they provide an appropriate framework for this kind of environmental accounting; the analysis shows an international comparison of four European countries (Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Hungary) with extended trading activities and carbon emissions. Moving from the production-based approach in the climate policy, to the consumptionperspective principle and allocation [15], it would also help increasing the efficiency of emission reduction targets and the evaluation of the sustainability dimension and its impacts of international trade. The results of the study have shown that there is an importance of distinction between the two emission allocation approaches, both from global and local level point of view.

A Consumption-Based Approach to Carbon Emission Accounting – Sectoral Differences and Environmental Benefits

In recent years there has been growing concern about the emission trade balances of countries. This is due to the fact that countries with an open economy are active players in international trade. Trade is not only a major factor in forging a country’s economic structure, but contributes to the movement of embodied emissions beyond country borders. This issue is especially relevant from the carbon accounting policy and domestic production perspective, as it is known that the production-based principle is employed in the Kyoto agreement. The research described herein was designed to reveal the interdependence of countries on international trade and the corresponding embodied emissions both on national and on sectoral level and to illustrate the significance of the consumption-based emission accounting. It is presented here to what extent a consumption-based accounting would change the present system based on production-based accounting and allocation. The relationship of CO2 emission embodied in exports and embodied in imports is analysed here. International trade can blur the responsibility for the ecological effects of production and consumption and it can lengthen the link between consumption and its consequences. Input-output models are used in the methodology as they provide an appropriate framework for climate change accounting. The analysis comprises an international comparative study of four European countries (Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Hungary) with extended trading activities and carbon emissions. Moving from a production-based approach in climate policy to a consumption-based principle and allocation approach would help to increase the efficiency of emission reductions and would force countries to rethink their trading activities in order to decrease the environmental load of production activities. The results of this study show that it is important to distinguish between the two emission accounting approaches, both on the global and the local level.

Konjunktúraingadozások az Egyesült Államokban 1970-2010 - Értelmezési nehézségek = Business cycles and recession patterns in the US economy and in the G7

Lehet-e beszélni a 2011-ig felgyülemlett empirikus tapasztalatok tükrében egy egységes válságlefolyásról, amely a fejlett ipari országok egészére általában jellemző, és a meghatározó országok esetében is megragadható? Megállapíthatók-e olyan univerzális változások a kibocsátás, a munkapiacok, a fogyasztás, valamint a beruházás tekintetében, amelyek jól illeszkednek a korábbi tapasztalatokhoz, nem kevésbé az ismert makromodellek predikcióihoz? A válasz – legalábbis jelen sorok írásakor – nemleges: sem a válság lefolyásának jellegzetességeiben és a makrogazdasági teljesítmények romlásának ütemében, sem a visszacsúszás mértékében és időbeli kiterjedésében sincsenek jól azonosítható közös jegyek, olyanok, amelyek a meglévő elméleti keretekbe jól beilleszthetők. A tanulmány áttekinti a válsággal és a makrogazdasági sokkokkal foglalkozó empirikus irodalom – a pénzügyi globalizáció értelmezései nyomán – relevánsnak tartott munkáit. Ezt követően egy 60 év távlatát átfogó vizsgálatban próbáljuk megítélni a recessziós időszakokban az amerikai gazdaság teljesítményét azzal a célkitűzéssel, hogy az elmúlt válság súlyosságának megítélése kellően objektív lehessen, legalább a fontosabb makrováltozók elmozdulásának nagyságrendje tekintetében. / === / Based on the empirical evidence accumulated until 2011, using official statistics from the OECD data bank and the US Commerce Department, the article addresses the question whether one can, or cannot, speak about generally observable recession/crisis patterns, such that were to be universally recognized in all major industrial countries (the G7). The answer to this question is a firm no. Changes and volatility in most major macroeconomic indicators such as output-gap, labor market distortions and large deviations from trend in consumption and in investment did all, respectively, exhibit wide differences in depth and width across the G7 countries. The large deviations in output-gaps and especially strong distortions in labor market inputs and hours per capita worked over the crisis months can hardly be explained by the existing model classes of DSGE and those of the real business cycle. Especially bothering are the difficulties in fitting the data into any established model whether business cycle or some other types, in which financial distress reduces economic activity. It is argued that standard business cycle models with financial market imperfections have no mechanism for generating deviation from standard theory, thus they do not shed light on the key factors underlying the 2007–2009 recession. That does not imply that the financial crisis is unimportant in understanding the recession, but it does indicate however, that we do not fully understand the channels through which financial distress reduced labor input. Long historical trends on the privately held portion of the federal debt in the US economy indicate that the standard macro proposition of public debt crowding out private investment and thus inhibiting growth, can be strongly challenged in so far as this ratio is neither a direct indicator of growth slowing down, nor for recession.

Szimulációk és érzékenységvizsgálatok a magyar gazdaság egy középméretű makromodelljével = Simulations and sensitivity analyses with a medium-sized macro model of the Hungarian economy

A tanulmányban a Pénzügyminisztérium gazdaságpolitikai főosztálya és az MTA Közgazdaságtudományi Intézete által kifejlesztett középméretű negyedéves makrogazdasági modell segítségével elemezzük a magyar gazdaság legfontosabb mechanizmusait. A modellezés során követett alapelvek és a modell blokkjainak bemutatása után egy forgatókönyv-elemzés keretében vizsgáljuk a makrogazdasági és költségvetési folyamatokat befolyásoló főbb faktorok hatásait. A - tágan értelmezett - "bizonytalansági tényezőket" három csoportba soroljuk: megkülönböztetjük a külső környezet (például árfolyam) változását, a gazdasági szereplők viselkedésében rejlő bizonytalanságokat (például a bérigazodás sebességének vagy a fogyasztássimítás mértékének bizonytalanságát), valamint a gazdaságpolitikai lépéseket (például állami bérek emelését). Megmutatjuk, hogy e kockázatok makrokövetkezményei nem függetlenek egymástól, például egy árfolyamváltozás hatását befolyásolja a bérigazodás sebessége. ______ This paper analyses the most important mechanisms of the Hungarian economy using a medium-sized quarterly macroeconomic model developed jointly by the Economic Policy Department of the Ministry of Finance and the Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. After introducing the fundamental principles of modelling and the building blocks of the model investigated, within a scenario analysis, the authors present the effects of the main factors behind the macroeconomic and budgetary processes. The sources of uncertainty - defined in a broad sense - are categorized in three groups: change in the external environment (e.g. the exchange rate), uncertainties in the behav-iour of economic agents (e.g. in speed of wage adjustment or extent of consumption smoothing), and economic policy decisions (e.g. the increase in public sector wages). The macroeconomic consequences of these uncertainties are shown not to be independent of each other. For instance, the effects of an exchange rate shock are influenced by the speed of wage adjustment.

Post Crisis Lessons for Open Economies: Are They All New?

This paper will argue that the American economy could and will absorb the recent shocks, and that in the longer run (within a matter of years), it will somehow convert the revealed weaknesses to its advantage. America has a long record of learning from its excesses to improve the working of its particular brand of capitalism, dating back to the imposition of antitrust controls on the robber barons in the late 1800s and the enhancement of investor protection after the 1929 crash. The American economy has experienced market imperfections of all kinds but it almost always has found, true, not perfect, but fairly reliable regulatory answers and has managed to adapt to change, (e. g. Dodd-Frank Act on financial stability). The U.S. has many times pioneered in the elaboration of both theoretical and policy oriented solutions for conflicts between markets and government to increase economic welfare (Bernanke, 2008, p. 425). There is no single reason why it should not turn the latest financial calamities to its advantage. At the same time, to regain confidence in capitalism as a global system, global efforts are indispensable. To identify some of the global economic conflicts that have a lot to do with U.S. markets in particular, we seek answers to global systemic questions.

The 3 per cent Barcelona Target: A Critical Appraisal of the Failure of the Lisbon Strategy’s Knowledgebased Economy and Society Project

Ten years after the unanimous approval of the Lisbon Strategy at a special meeting of the European Council on 23-24 March 2000 in Lisbon, it will be inevitable for the European Council, the European Commission and the majority of the EU member states to face with its fi asco and to account for the reasons of their fundamental policy, governance and economic failures in 2010. The recent turbulence of the global economy offers some excuses for the underperformance of the main objectives of the Lisbon Strategy in the essential social and economic domains, like job creation, economic growth, and environmental sustainability. Negative growth rates, macroeconomic and fi nancial instability, the contraction of the internal and external markets of the European economy, drop in demand for capital investment, goods and services, sinking corporate revenues, depreciation of corporate assets, increasing private and public indebtedness, falling rate of employment, weakening social cohesion, widening social inequality, and so forth not only deprive the majority of the EU member states of fulfi lling the main objectives of the Lisbon Strategy but also drive them into worse social and economic conditions in many policy domains than they were in 2000.

Fifty shades of innovation – from open toward user, and open collaborative forms of innovation – an overview

Starting from the Schumpeterian producer-driven understanding of innovation, followed by user-generated solutions and understanding of collaborative forms of co-creation, scholars investigated the drivers and the nature of interactions underpinning success in various ways. Innovation literature has gone a long way, where open innovation has attracted researchers to investigate problems like compatibilities of external resources, networks of innovation, or open source collaboration. Openness itself has gained various shades in the different strands of literature. In this paper the author provides with an overview and a draft evaluation of the different models of open innovation, illustrated with some empirical findings from various fields drawn from the literature. She points to the relevance of transaction costs affecting viable forms of (open) innovation strategies of firms, and the importance to define the locus of innovation for further analyses of different firm and interaction level formations.

Open innovation in the performing arts. Examples from contemporary dance and theatre production

Scholarship on open innovation examines the different shades of opening up the innovation process of firms, where the most important feature is sourcing in knowledge. In this paper I examine the implications of adapting open innovation frames to a field where it was not investigated before: performing arts (contemporary dance and theatre). I draw on case studies and demonstrate that open innovation strategies are viable for artistic production. Independent companies purposefully mining out external knowledge in production, and commercializing on the spillovers of their body of knowledge, put themselves on the shelf of firms adopting and adapting to open innovation.

Google’s Antitrust Cases Competition Analysis in New Economy Markets

Today, global economic performance largely depends on digital ecosystems. E-commerce, cloud, social media, sharing economy are the main products of the modern innovative economic systems which are constantly raising new regulatory questions. Meanwhile the United States has an unimpeachable dominance in innovation and new technologies, as well as a large and open domestic market, the EU is only recently discovering the importance of empowering the European digital economy and aims to break down its highly fragmented cross-border online economic environment. As global economy is rapidly becoming digital, Europe’s effort to create and invest in common digital market is understandable. The comprehensive investigations launched by the European Commission into the role of social network, search engine, or sharing economy internet platforms, which are new generation technologies dominated by American firms; or the recent decision of the Court of Justice of the European Union declaring that the Commission’s US Safe Harbor Decision is invalid1 might be considered as part of an anti-American protectionist policy. However, these measures could rather be seen as part of a broader trend to foster European enterprises in technology developments.

Az olajár gyengülő makrogazdasági hatásai. Két versengő elmélet szintézise = Weakening macroeconomic effects of the oil price. A synthesis of two competing theories

Az 1970-es évek olajválságait követő stagflációs periódusok óta gyakorlatilag minden nagyobb áremelkedés alkalmával felerősödnek a kedvezőtlen makrogazdasági hatásokkal kapcsolatos félelmek, miközben a tapasztalat azt mutatja, hogy az importőröket egyre kevésbé érinti az olaj reálárának alakulása. A gyengülő hatások okaként Blanchard-Galí [2007] a gazdaságok hatékonyabb és rugalmasabb működését jelölte meg, míg Kilian [2010] szerint a 2000 utáni áremelkedést a kedvező világgazdasági környezet fűtötte, ami ellensúlyozta a magasabb ár okozta negatív folyamatokat. A tanulmány Kilian [2009] modelljének kiterjesztésével, időben változó paraméterű ökonometriai eljárással vizsgálja a két megközelítés összeegyeztethetőségét. Az eredmények a hipotézisek egymást kiegészítő kapcsolatára engednek következtetni, azaz a makrogazdasági következmények szempontjából nem maga az ár, hanem annak kiváltó okai lényegesek, ugyanakkor e mögöttes tényezők hatása az elmúlt évtizedekben folyamatosan változott. _____ Many economists argue that the stagflation periods of the 1970s were related to the two main oil crises. However, experience shows that these effects were eliminated over the decades, e. g. oil-importing economies enjoyed solid growth and low inflation when oil prices surged in the 2000s. Blanchard and Galí (2007) found that economies became more effective and elastic in handling high energy prices, while Kilian (2010) took as the main reason for the weakening macroeconomic effects of oil-price shocks the structural differences behind the price changes. The article sets out to test the compatibility of the two rival theories, using time-varying parameter models. The results show that both hypotheses can be correct concurrently: the structure of the change in price matters, but the impulse responses varied over time.