Rangsorolás páros összehasonlításokkal. Kiegészítések a felvételizői preferencia-sorrendek módszertanához (Paired comparisons ranking. A supplement to the methodology of application-based preference ordering)

A Közgazdasági Szemle márciusi számában Telcs és szerzőtársai [2013] a felvételizők preferenciái alapján új megközelítést javasolt a felsőoktatási intézmények rangsorolására. Az alábbi írás új szempontokat biztosít ezen alapötlet gyakorlati megvalósításához. Megmutatja, hogy az alkalmazott modell ekvivalens az alternatívák egy aggregált páros összehasonlítási mátrix révén végzett rangsorolásával, ami rávilágít a szerzők kiinduló hipotéziseinek vitatható pontjaira. A szerző röviden áttekinti a hasonló feladatok megoldására javasolt módszereket, különös tekintettel azok axiomatikus megalapozására, majd megvizsgálja a Telcs és szerzőtársai [2013] által alkalmazott eljárásokat. Végül említést tesz egy hasonló megközelítéssel élő cikkről, és megfogalmaz néhány, a vizsgálat továbbfejlesztésére vonatkozó javaslatot. _____ In the March issue of Közgazdasági Szemle, Telcs et al. suggested a new approach to university ranking through preference ordering of applicants. The paper proposes new aspects to the implementation of this idea. It is shown that the model of these is equivalent to the ranking of alternatives based on paired comparisons, which reveals the debatable points in their hypotheses. The author reviews briefly the methods proposed in the literature, focusing on their axiomatic properties, and thoroughly examines the procedures of Telcs et al. [2013]. The paper presents an article which applied a similar approach and suggests some improvements to it.

State–society relations in a dynamic framework: The case of the Far East and Sub-Saharan Africa.

According to the textbook approach, the developmental states of the Far East have been considered as strong and autonomous entities. Although their bureaucratic elites have remained isolated from direct pressures stemming from society, the state capacity has also been utilised in order to allocate resources in the interest of the whole society. Yet, society – by and large –has remained weak and subordinated to the state elite. On the other hand, the general perception of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been just the opposite. The violent and permanent conflict amongst rent-seeking groups for influence and authority over resources has culminated in a situation where states have become extremely weak and fragmented, while society – depending on the capacity of competing groups for mobilising resources to organise themselves mostly on a regional or local level (resulting in local petty kingdoms) – has never had the chance to evolve as a strong player. State failure in the literature, therefore, – in the context of SSA – refers not just to a weak and captured state but also to a non-functioning, and sometimes even non-existent society, too. Recently, however, the driving forces of globalisation might have triggered serious changes in the above described status quo. Accordingly, our hypothesis is the following: globalisation, especially the dynamic changes of technology, capital and communication have made the simplistic “strong state–weak society” (in Asia) and “weak state–weak society” (in Africa) categorisation somewhat obsolete. While our comparative study has a strong emphasis on the empirical scrutiny of trying to uncover the dynamics of changes in state–society relations in the two chosen regions both qualitatively and quantitatively, it also aims at complementing the meaning and essence of the concepts and methodology of stateness, state capacity and state-society relations, the well-known building blocks of the seminal works of Evans (1995), Leftwich (1995), Migdal (1988) or Myrdal (1968).

Versenyképesség-történetek - Nemzetgazdasági versenyképességről szóló vélekedések összehasonlító elemzése = Narratives on Competitiveness – A Comparative Analysis of Perceptions and Concepts about National Competitiveness

The scope of the present study is twofold. First, through in-depth interviews, it aims to explore the perception and concepts of non-political leaders (Deputy State Secretaries and Heads of Department) of the Hungarian economic bureaucracy concerning the competitiveness of the Hungarian economy. Second, it compares the obtained results to the perception and concepts salient in the political and business sphere as well as in the methodology of the international competitiveness rankings. The analysis covers issues of competitiveness such as (1) problems of the competitiveness of Hungarian economy, (2) directions of good policy, (3) agents of competitiveness, (4) future of the Hungarian economy, (5) political obstacles of good policy.

Scenarios and roots of climate change

There have been more and more words about climate change and global warming in the last few decades. But what do we really understand them? Is it logic that the climate change derived by human behaviour or is it an independent process of nature that occurs no matter how we try to stop it? Is the climate change a global warming or global cooling method? We know for sure that something is changing around us and we heard a million times that if we exhaust the resources of the Earth than we will cause permanent and irreversible damage. In the first part of this chapter we will see the facts. There will be a few different perspectives from a few different institutions publication about the methodology of measurement on climate change. In the second part of the chapter we shall distinguish how big part of the changes may be the results of the human activities, or is it even possible to distinguish what causes the climate change. In the last part of this chapter the IPCC’s scenario will be explained on the case if the process of the climate change can not be stopped, or if human kind does not do anything for mitigation.

A geometriai Brown-mozgás feltevésének elfogadhatósága a reálopciók értékelésében (The acceptability of the assumption of geometric brownian motion in the valuation of real options)

A reálopciók a döntési rugalmasság megtestesítőiként jelen vannak a vállalatvezetők mindennapjaiban, és cégtől függően jelentős értéket képviselhetnek. Értékelésük a hagyományos diszkontált pénzáramlás módszerekkel csak korlátozottan lehetséges, ezért alternatívaként felmerül a pénzügyi opcióárazás módszertana, amelynek hagyományos változatai az alaptermék alakulásáról geometriai Brown-mozgást feltételeznek. A cikk ezt a feltevést veszi górcső alá a reálopciókra történő alkalmazás szempontjából, és megmutatja, hogy habár önkényesnek tűnhet, valójában nem pusztán egy matematikai szempontból kényelmes megoldás, hanem pénzügyileg is elfogadható feltétel. _______ Real options represent the fl exibility of decision-making, and are thus part of the everyday work of corporate executives, often having great value. Valuing them with the use of traditional Discounted Cash Flow models has limited relevance, therefore arises the alternative methodology of fi nancial option pricing, the traditional versions of which assume that the price of the underlying asset follows Geometric Brownian Motion. The paper examines this assumption from the aspect of real option valuation and shows that although it might seem arbitrary, it is not only a mathematically convenient choice, but also a fi nancially acceptable one.

The importance of meta-economics

E.F. Schumacher was one of the first scholars who recognized the crucial role of metaeconomics. In his "Small is beautiful" he writes: "The science of economics is 'so prone to usurp the rest' … because it relates to certain very strong drives of human nature, such as envy and greed. All the greater is the duty of its experts, the economists, to understand and clarify its limitations, that is to say, to understand meta-economics." (Schumacher, E. F. 1973: p. 38) Meta-economics is the basic assumptions about the subject-matter, value-orientation and methodology of economics. (Zsolnai, L. 1991) The paper attempts to reconstruct the metaeconomic foundation of mainstream economics and that of alternative economics initiated by Schumacher. It shows how the emerging alternative economics transcends the erroneous metaeconomic assumptions of mainstream economics by considering the total economic process, choosing sustainable livelihood as basic value-orientation, and employing a constructive methodology.

Creating Responsive Information Systems with the Help of SSADM

In this paper, a program for a research is outlined. Firstly, the concept of responsive information systems is defined and then the notion of the capacity planning and software performance engineering is clarified. Secondly, the purpose of the proposed methodology of capacity planning, the interface to information systems analysis and development methodologies (SSADM), the advantage of knowledge-based approach is discussed. The interfaces to CASE tools more precisely to data dictionaries or repositories (IRDS) are examined in the context of a certain systems analysis and design methodology (e.g. SSADM).

Simulation modeling of phytoplankton dynamics in a large eutrophic river, Hungary – Danubian Phytoplankton Growth Model (DPGM)

Ecological models have often been used in order to answer questions that are in the limelight of recent researches such as the possible effects of climate change. The methodology of tactical models is a very useful tool comparison to those complex models requiring relatively large set of input parameters. In this study, a theoretical strategic model (TEGM ) was adapted to the field data on the basis of a 24-year long monitoring database of phytoplankton in the Danube River at the station of G¨od, Hungary (at 1669 river kilometer – hereafter referred to as “rkm”). The Danubian Phytoplankton Growth Model (DPGM) is able to describe the seasonal dynamics of phytoplankton biomass (mg L−1) based on daily temperature, but takes the availability of light into consideration as well. In order to improve fitting, the 24-year long database was split in two parts in accordance with environmental sustainability. The period of 1979–1990 has a higher level of nutrient excess compared with that of the 1991–2002. The authors assume that, in the above-mentioned periods, phytoplankton responded to temperature in two different ways, thus two submodels were developed, DPGM-sA and DPGMsB. Observed and simulated data correlated quite well. Findings suggest that linear temperature rise brings drastic change to phytoplankton only in case of high nutrient load and it is mostly realized through the increase of yearly total biomass.

Public price of climate change

Aim of the paper: The purpose is to gather the practices and to model the impacts of climate change on fiscal spending and revenues, responsibilities and opportunities, balance and debt related to climate change (CC). Methodology of the paper: The methodology will distinguish fiscal cost of mitigation and adaptation, besides direct and indirect costs. It will also introduce cost benefit analyses to evaluate the propensity of policy makers for action or passivity. Several scenarios will be drafted to see the different outcomes. The scenarios shall contain the possible losses in the natural and artificial environment and resources. Impacts on public budget are based on damage of income opportunities and capital/wealth/natural assets. There will be a list of actions when the fiscal correction of market failures will be necessary. Findings: There will be a summary and synthesis of estimation models on CC impacts on public finances, and morals of existing/existed budgeting practices on mitigation. The model will be based on damages (and maybe benefits) from CC, adjusted with probabilities of sce-narios and policy making propensity for action. Findings will cover the way of funding of fiscal costs. Practical use, value added: From the synthesis of model, the fiscal cost of mitigation and adaptation can be estimated for any developed, emerging and developing countries. The paper will try to reply, also, for the challenge how to harmonize fiscal and developmental sustainability.

Stylization: a method for preserving the character of climate sensitive habitat

Stylization is a method of ornamental plant use usually applied in urban open space and garden design based on aesthetic consideration. Stylization can be seen as a nature-imitating ornamental plant application which evokes the scenery rather than an ecological plant application which assists the processes and functions observed in the nature. From a different point of view, stylization of natural or semi-natural habitats can sometimes serve as a method for preserving the physiognomy of the plant associations that may be affected by the climate change of the 21st century. The vulnerability of the Hungarian habitats has thus far been examined by the researchers only from the botanical point of view but not in terms of its landscape design value. In Hungary coniferous forests are edaphic and classified on this basis. The General National Habitat Classification System (Á-NÉR) distinguishes calcareous Scots pine forests and acidofrequent coniferous forests. The latter seems to be highly sensitive to climate change according to ecological models. The physiognomy and species pool of its subtypes are strongly determined by the dominant coniferous species that can be Norway spruce (Picea abies) or Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris). We are going to discuss the methodology of stylization of climate sensitive habitats and briefly refer to acidofrequent coniferous forests as a case study. In the course of stylization those coniferous and deciduous tree species of the studied habitat that are water demanding should be substituted by drought tolerant ones with similar characteristics. A list of the proposed taxa is going to be given.

Domináns vállalat versenyképességének hatása az ellátási láncban (Effects of competitiveness of the dominant company in the supply chain)

Beszállító, gyártó és vevő vállalatok alkotnak egy ellátási láncot. Optimális esetben a vállalatok integrált rendszerben működnek, az együttműködés bizal mi alapon nyugszik, így a közös stratégiai döntések révén versenyképes lesz a lánc. Az ellátási láncban lehet egy kulcsfontosságú vállalat, amelyik domináns hatalmi pozícióval rendelkezik. A kutatás célja, hogy feltárja a hatalommal rendelkező vállalat szerepét a partnercégek és az ellátási lánc versenyképességének alakulásában. A szakirodalom alapján a hipotézis feltételezi, hogy van kapcsolat a versenyképesség és a domináns vállalat szerepvállalása között. A szerzők elemzése primer kutatáson alapul, a kérdőív válaszait SPSS statisztikai kiértékeléssel végezték. Az eredmények azt mutatták, hogy a domináns vállalat versenyképességétől valóban függ a partnercégek versenyképessége. Szignifikáns kapcsolat megléte bizonyítja a hipotézist. A vizsgálatok kiemelik, hogy a verseny már egy szinttel feljebb, az ellátási lánc szintjén értelmezhető: globális ellátási láncok versenyeznek egymással. _____ Supplier, producer and buyer companies make up a supply chain. In an optimal case the companies are integrated, partnership rests on trust which results in common strategic decisions leading to competitiveness. Each supply chain has a key company with dominant power position. The objective of the research is to analyse how the company with power affects competitiveness of partner firms and the supply chain as a whole. Based on theories hypothesis assumes a link between competitiveness and power position and its influence. Methodology of the analysis is based on primary research; the authors used SPSS statistical analysis to evaluate the answers of questionnaire. Findings include that partner firms’ competitiveness rely on competitiveness of the company with dominant power position. Significant connections prove that the hypothesis is true. Results show that competitiveness is being moved up to supply chain level. Global supply chains compete with each other.

Hatalmi távolság és intézményi kollektivizmus – a versenyképesség előrejelzése szövegelemzéssel (Power distance and institutional collectivism – Forecast of competitiveness by text analysis)

A tárgyalófelek elé kitett mobiltelefon alkalmazása előrejelzi a beszélgetőpartnerek versenyképességét a versenyképesség-mutatók alapján, javaslatokat adva a tárgyalás további menetére. Ez a vízió nyilván még futurisztikus, ám a csúcsvezetői nyilatkozatok rejtett szövegtartalma alapján következtetéseket levonni a képviselt szervezetek versenyképességi orientációira – ez már ma lehetőség. A GLOBE-projekt kultúrakutatási módszertanával, valamint szövegelemzési módszerekkel sikerült kimutatni a versenyképességet előrejelző hatalmi távolság és az intézményi kollektivizmus szövegbeli jeleit. Mindez eszközt jelenthet egyebek mellett a szervezetfejlesztéssel, hírszerzéssel, HR-gazdálkodással foglalkozó szakembereknek is. _______ The use of the mobile telephones laid in front of the negotiators during their conversations forecasts their indicators of competitiveness and gives suggestions for the further course of negotiation. This is obviously a futuristic vision, but drawing conclusions from the hidden content of top management narratives concerning the competitive cultural orientations of the represented organizations is a possibility that is already available. Using the culture research methodology of the GLOBE project as well as text analysis methods, it was possible to reveal narrative patterns both of the power distance, forecasting competitiveness, and of institutional collectivism. These findings may be useful tools for professionals, among others of organizational development, intelligence service and HR management.

"Lájk első látásra?" – Mi inspirálja a márkák kedvelését az online térben, kis vendéglátóhelyek esetében? ("Like at first sight?" – What inspires liking brands in online social media in the case of small catering establishments?)

A márkatulajdonosok számára elsődleges fontosságú, hogy feltérképezzék saját márkaközösségüket, ezáltal is elősegítve a közösségi fókuszú kommunikációs tevékenységüket. Különösen igaz ez a jellemzően kis- és középvállalati formában működő vendéglátóhelyek számára, ahol a közösségi média sokszor az egyetlen rendelkezésre álló marketingkommunikációs eszköz. Empirikus kutatásunkban fogyasztói narratívákat (n=151) elemzünk a tartalomelemzés módszertanával. A válaszadókat arra kértük, hogy írjanak kedvenc vendéglátóhelyükkel való kapcsolatukról az online térben. Elemzésünkben arra keressük a választ, hogy a márkaközösségek tagjai milyen belső indíttatásból kerültek kapcsolatba kedvenc vendéglátóhelyeikkel a közösségi platformokon. Az elsősorban fogyasztási élményekhez kötött kapcsolat online közösségi térbe való kiterjesztésére olyan belső motivációkat tártunk fel, mint a pragmatikusabb információközpontú indíttatások (pl. kizárólagos információk, naprakészség, vállalati ajánlatok, közösségimédia-specifikus tartalmakhoz való hozzáférés igénye), az érzelmi kötődés kifejezése (pl. nosztalgia, ismerősöknek való ajánlás, személyes érintettség), a társas befolyás (oldalak kedvelése mint kommunikációs tartalom, konformitás, önkifejezés), valamint a vállalati alapképességeken túlmutató egyéb tematikus kapcsolódások. ____ It is of primary importance for brand owners to map their own brand community, in order to stimulate their social-focused communication activity. This is especially true for typically small and medium-sized catering enterprises, where in most cases, social media is the only available marketing communications tool. In our empirical research, we analyze consumer narratives (n=151) with the methodology of content analysis. We asked the respondents to write about their relationship with their most preferred catering establishments in the online social sphere. In our research, we search for the inner intention by which members of brand communities got connected with their most preferred catering establishments on social platforms. We revealed such inner motivations for users extending a primarily experience (an consumption) based relationship to the online social sphere like rather pragmatic, information-focused intentions (e.g. exclusive information, timeliness, company offers, access claim for social media -specific contents), the expression of emotional binding (e.g. nostalgia, reference for acquaintances, personal involvement), social influence (the like as communication content, conformity, self-expression), and other thematic linkages beyond core company competences.

"Lájkolom őket, de ennék is náluk?" – Aktivitásra buzdító kis- és középvállalati közösségimédia-tevékenységek fogyasztói fogadtatása magyarországi vendéglátóhelyek példáján keresztül ("I like them, but would I eat at their place?" – Encouraging social media activities of small and medium-sized enterprises and their consumerreactions – the case of Hungarian catering establishments)

A vendéglátóipari egységek kommunikációjában fontos szerepe van a közösségi médiában való jelenlétnek. Hazánkban a leggyakrabban használt felület a Facebook, amely sok ilyen vállalkozás esetében kiemelt fontosságú, vagy akár az egyetlen reálisan elérhető marketingkommunikációs felület. Kutatásunkban azt vizsgáljuk, hogy a felhasználók hogyan érzékelik a feléjük továbbított üzleti célú információkat a közösségi felületen, illetve hogy a fogyasztókra milyen mértékű aktivitás jellemző kedvenc vendéglátóipari egységük oldalán. Ennek céljából szubjektív fogyasztói narratívákat (n=151) elemzünk a kvalitatív tartalomelemzés módszertanával. A válaszadókat arra kértük, hogy írjanak kedvenc vendéglátóhelyükkel való kapcsolatukról az online térben. A "belájkolt" vendéglátóipari egységek felületeinek fogyasztók által észlelt aktivitása segítheti a vállalkozásokat abban, hogy alaptevékenységük elemeinek kommunikálásával, vagy akár ettől teljesen eltérő közösségi stratégiát használva pozicionálják márkájukat. A márkák tudatos tartalommenedzselése hozzájárulhat továbbá a felhasználók virtuális térben való hatékonyabb eléréséhez és bevonásához. ____ Presence in social media is an important element in the communication of catering establishments. The most frequently used platform in Hungary – that is extraordinarily important, or even the only reasonably accessible marketing communications platform for many catering companies – is Facebook. In our research, we analyse how users perceive the business-purposed information forwarded to them on the social media platform, and how intensive are the consumers’ activities on their most preferred catering establishment's site. For this purpose we analyse subjective consumer narratives (N=151) with the methodology of qualitative content analysis. We asked the respondents to write about the relationship with their most preferred catering establishment in the online sphere. Perceived activity of the "liked" catering establishment's platform could help enterprises to position themselves by communicating their core activities, or by using a totally different social strategy. Moreover, conscious content management of brands could contribute to reach and to engage users in the virtual sphere more efficiently.

Stylization: a method for preserving the character of climate sensitive habitats. A case study of acidofrequent mixed forests

Stylization is a common method of ornamental plant use that imitates nature and evokes the scenery. This paper discloses a not yet proposed aspect of stylization, since the method offers the possibility of preserving the physiognomy of those habitats that seem to vanish due to future climate change. In addition, novelty of the method is founded also on that vulnerability of the Hungarian habitats has been examined by the researchers only from the botanical and ecological point of view so far and not in terms of its landscape design value. In Hungary, acidofrequent mixed forests appear to be highly sensitive to climate change according to ecological models. We are going to discuss the methodology of stylization of climate sensitive habitats and briefly refer to acidofrequent mixed forests as a case study. Those coniferous and deciduous tree species of the studied habitat that are water demanding are proposed to be substituted by drought tolerant ones with similar characteristics, and an optionally expandable list of these taxa is presented. Based on this the authors suggest experimental investigations of those of the proposed taxa for which the higher drought tolerance is based on observations only.