Implication of two new paradigms for futures studies

The paper considers the emergence of two recent perspectives in futures work. One is evolutionary futures studies. The other is critical futures studies. After describing aspects of each, the paper considers them as alternative rival paradigms in relation to criteria that include: the role of the human being as a subject, the role of interpretation and differences in methodological premises. It concludes that both have contributed to the development of futures methods but that a number of theoretical and methodological problems still remain unsolved.

Úton a megoldásalapú gondolkodás felé – szolgálatosodási jellemzők magyarországi termelővállalatoknál (Towards solution-based thinking: characteristics of servitization at Hungarian manufacturing companies)

A cikk fő célja a magyarországi termelővállalatok szolgálatosodási folyamatának jellemzése a versenyképesség- kutatás adatainak felhasználásával. Relevanciáját az adja, hogy a nemzetközi szakirodalom a jelenséget inkább a fejlett országokban vizsgálja. A szerzők kutatásukban körüljárták, hogy a szolgálatosodás nemzetközi szakirodalom által elfogadott jellemzői mennyiben tekinthetők érvényesnek a magyarországi viszonyok közepette. A szolgálatosodást három szinten vizsgálták: stratégia, működés és pénzügyi eredményesség. Vizsgálatuk eredményei azt mutatják, hogy a nemzetközi szakirodalommal összhangban a szolgáltatások stratégiai szerepe még alacsony a magyarországi termelővállalatoknál a termelési stratégia többi versenycéljához képest. Ugyanakkor mintájukban már megtalálhatók azok a vállalatok, amelyek mind stratégiai, mind működési szinten jelentősebb hangsúlyt fektetnek a szolgáltatások nyújtására. Fontos eredmény ugyanakkor, hogy a szolgálatosodástól elvárt pénzügyi előnyök még ezeknél a vállalatoknál sem realizálódnak. _______ The main purpose of the authors is to describe the servitization process of Hungarian manufacturing companies based on data of the Competitiveness research. The relevance of this article is given by the fact that international literature analyzes this phenomenon mainly in developed countries. In the present paper they analyze to what extent characteristics of the servitization process, generally accepted in the literature, are also applicable in a developing macroenvironment, i.e. Hungary. They approach servitization from three different perspectives: strategy, operations and financial payoffs. Results of their analysis show that, in concordance with the literature, the strategic role of services at the Hungarian manufacturing companies is still lower than other manufacturing competitive priorities. However, their sample contains a number manufacturing companies that place a greater emphasis on offering services both on strategic and operational level. An important conclusion of their study is that in case of these companies financial benefits attributable to higher levels of servitization do not yet seem to materialize.

Integal futures based on the paradigm approach

The study discusses the interpretation of integral futures in the context of paradigm. The dynamic matrix model of futures paradigm has been developed for carrying out meta-analysis of futures. As a result of meta-analysis integral futures and its new paradigms are defined by way of reconstructing futures paradigm history as responses to changing societal needs and through the outcomes of dynamic and comparative analysis of futures paradigms. The study sets the argument that integral futures: a) is entering a new phase in development of futures that responses to societal demands for sustainability, democratic participation and continuous knowledge production and integration, b) it is the phase of cooperation building between theoretical and practical futures, c) it is the complementary development of co-evolutionary and participatory paradigms, d) it unfolds further research perspectives for futures.

Action oriented futures studies in Hungary

The significant social changes and unstable social–economic processes we are undergoing require more participation and more future oriented grassroots activity both in designing the possible future alternatives and in the actions for the realization of them. Action oriented futures studies and participatory futures studies are in close connection, because orientation towards actions and participation of non-professionals can be strengthened by their mutual interdependence in futures work. This study gives—as examples—summaries of four Hungarian case studies using participatory futures methods: one case from the field of vocational training, two cases concerning regional development, and one about national social–economic development. Our experience shows that such selected groups have evaluated the present issues in their environments as well as the closer and broader regional issues in authentic ways. The future alternatives that were outlined regarding the future of vocational training, acceptable future alternatives of domestic social–economic development, and future living conditions of a smaller settlement and in a larger town, reflected obligation, responsibility and personal interest. That non-professionals lack sufficient future orientation, and do not see possibilities to take serious actions for the future is a read problem. Fortunately, it seems that the future and action oriented attitude of the individuals might be further developed by the use of partnership education.

Changing attitudes to the future in Hungary

In the mid-1990s a theoretical definition of future orientation was elaborated by Hungarian futurists Nova´ ky, Hideg and Kappe´ ter to conduct empirical research on the capacity of human foresight under given historical conditions. Future orientation is a way human thinking is manifested, where thoughts are filled with preconceptions, imagination and expectations. Our research has shown that the following component parts characterise future orientation: thinking about the future, applying regular social techniques to limit its uncertainty, actions taken in the interest of the future, and expectations concerning the future. Based on these component parts the future orientation of Hungarian society was studied empirically in 1995 and in 2006. Comparative analysis of the findings of the two surveys is presented below.

Futures Studies in Finland

The development of futures studies and the future-oriented attitude of Finnish institutions and the government can serve as great example for other countries. This attitude appears in education and economy, issues in which Finland is highly competitive in. We introduce the futures studies-related organizations and the foresight system of Finland. An overview of the development of futures studies and the activities, purposes of foresight institutions, with a major emphasis on the Finland Futures Research Centre will be presented. The main question is how could other countries utilize the Finnish example? Societal changes depend on the environment and its historical background, making it quite a challenge to come up with an all-adaptable answer for this question. Thus we will only present guidelines and proposals regarding the development of strategy at the end of this paper.