A diszkrét kiválasztási modell becslése Cox-regresszióval (Parameter estimation for multinomial discrete choice model using Cox-regression)

Considering the so-called "multinomial discrete choice" model the focus of this paper is on the estimation problem of the parameters. Especially, the basic question arises how to carry out the point and interval estimation of the parameters when the model is mixed i.e. includes both individual and choice-specific explanatory variables while a standard MDC computer program is not available for use. The basic idea behind the solution is the use of the Cox-proportional hazards method of survival analysis which is available in any standard statistical package and provided a data structure satisfying certain special requirements it yields the MDC solutions desired. The paper describes the features of the data set to be analysed.

Preferences of Hungarian consumers for quality, access and price attributes of health care services — result of a discrete choice experiment

In 2010, a household survey was carried out in Hungary among 1037 respondents to study consumer preferences and willingness to pay for health care services. In this paper, we use the data from the discrete choice experiments included in the survey, to elicit the preferences of health care consumers about the choice of health care providers. Regression analysis is used to estimate the effect of the improvement of service attributes (quality, access, and price) on patients’ choice, as well as the differences among the socio-demographic groups. We also estimate the marginal willingness to pay for the improvement in attribute levels by calculating marginal rates of substitution. The results show that respondents from a village or the capital, with low education and bad health status are more driven by the changes in the price attribute when choosing between health care providers. Respondents value the good skills and reputation of the physician and the attitude of the personnel most, followed by modern equipment and maintenance of the office/hospital. Access attributes (travelling and waiting time) are less important. The method of discrete choice experiment is useful to reveal patients’ preferences, and might support the development of an evidence-based and sustainable health policy on patient payments.

Trading between perceived risks and benefits related to biosimilar biological treatment in Crohn’s disease; discrete choice experiment among gastroenterologists

Objective: The objective of the study is to explore preferences of gastroenterologists for biosimilar drugs in Crohn’s Disease and reveal trade-offs between the perceived risks and benefits related to biosimilar drugs. Method: Discrete choice experiment was carried out involving 51 Hungarian gastroenterologists in May, 2014. The following attributes were used to describe hypothetical choice sets: 1) type of the treatment (biosimilar/originator) 2) severity of disease 3) availability of continuous medicine supply 4) frequency of the efficacy check-ups. Multinomial logit model was used to differentiate between three attitude types: 1) always opting for the originator 2) willing to consider biosimilar for biological-naïve patients only 3) willing to consider biosimilar treatment for both types of patients. Conditional logit model was used to estimate the probabilities of choosing a given profile. Results: Men, senior consultants, working in IBD center and treating more patients are more likely to willing to consider biosimilar for biological-naïve patients only. Treatment type (originator/biosimilar) was the most important determinant of choice for patients already treated with biologicals, and the availability of continuous medicine supply in the case biological-naïve patients. The probabilities of choosing the biosimilar with all the benefits offered over the originator under current reimbursement conditions are 89% vs 11% for new patients, and 44% vs 56% for patients already treated with biological. Conclusions: Gastroenterologists were willing to trade between perceived risks and benefits of biosimilars. The continuous medical supply would be one of the major benefits of biosimilars. However, benefits offered in the scenarios do not compensate for the change from the originator to the biosimilar treatment of patients already treated with biologicals.

Double or quits: should money found be risked?

This article examines social attitudes towards risk-preference and risk-aversion. First, we briefly discuss the theoretical approach to the analysis of risk-preference and risk-aversion that was developed within rational choice theory. Next, we present an approach to operationalise risk-preference using survey data. Our measurement of attitudes towards risk follows the usual strategy: respondents are asked to choose between a small amount of money they get for sure, and a large but risky amount. Drawing on the theoretical models and earlier empirical research, we formulate hypotheses about the social factors that have an impact on actual decision making in the situations under study. The hypotheses are tested using survey data. The article ends with a brief discussion. The novelty of our paper is that – to the best of our knowledge – neither previous Hungarian nor international research has attempted to examine attitudes towards risk using data from large-scale surveys.

Fogalmak, módszerek. Páros összehasonlításokon alapuló rangsorolási módszerek (Ranking methods based on paired comparisons)

A páronként összehasonlított alternatívák rangsorolásának problémája egyaránt felmerül a szavazáselmélet, a statisztika, a tudománymetria, a pszichológia és a sport területén. A nemzetközi szakirodalom alapján részletesen áttekintjük a megoldási lehetőségeket, bemutatjuk a gyakorlati alkalmazások során fellépő kérdések kezelésének, a valós adatoknak megfelelő matematikai környezet felépítésének módjait. Kiemelten tárgyaljuk a páros összehasonlítási mátrix megadását, az egyes pontozási eljárásokat és azok kapcsolatát. A tanulmány elméleti szempontból vizsgálja a Perron-Frobenius tételen alapuló invariáns, fair bets, PageRank, valamint az irányított gráfok csúcsainak rangsorolásra javasolt internal slackening és pozíciós erő módszereket. A közülük történő választáshoz az axiomatikus megközelítést ajánljuk, ennek keretében bemutatjuk az invariáns és a fair bets eljárások karakterizációját, és kitérünk a módszerek vitatható tulajdonságaira. _____ The ranking of the alternatives or selecting the best one are fundamental issues of social choice theory, statistics, psychology and sport. Different solution concepts, and various mathematical models of applications are reviewed based on the international literature. We are focusing on the de¯nition of paired comparison matrix, on main scoring procedures and their relation. The paper gives a theoretical analysis of the invariant, fair bets and PageRank methods, which are founded on Perron-Frobenius theorem, as well as the internal slackening and positional power procedures used for ranking the nodes of a directed graph. An axiomatic approach is proposed for the choice of an appropriate method. Besides some known characterizations for the invariant and fair bets methods, we also discuss the violation of some properties, meaning their main weakness.

New Public Management Reforms: Institutions matter!

New Public Management (NPM) has played a decisive role and has had a radical effect on the productivity and efficiency of the public sector in the Anglo-Saxon countries. However, the effective introduction of the NPM reforms is not an easy task. The scientific community is zealously analyzing the experiences of the developing countries. The stories, they tell, are full of failures, and ineffective reforms. The goal of the current study is to uncover the factors that might influence the successful implementation of the NPM reforms. In our analysis, by relying on the theories of new institutional economics, we developed a model with which we wish to prove that in regards to the success of the reforms the informal and the formal institutions characteristic of the given country are the decisively determining factors. When answering the question, we introduced a new indicator based on public choice theory – the politicians’ interest index – by which we could measure the success of the NPM. We tested our hypothesis by a comparative statistical analysis using the data from 31 countries. Based on our results, we find that informal institutions, the culture shared by the members of society, fundamentally determine the probability of the successful implementation of the NPM reforms, these results having a significant practical relevance.

The role of enduring involvement in the relationship between reference price and price acceptance in the context of multichannel choice

Understanding online price acceptance and its determining factors can be essential if the companies try to manage different type of channels. The paper aimed to reveal the role of enduring involvement in price acceptance in a multichannel (online and offline) context. The study revealed that the hedonic value of shopping can increase the negative intention of price acceptance in the online channel, but also explored that for the segment without shopping motivations a similar price level can be applied both in the online and in the offline environment.