A climate profile indicator based comparative analysis of climate change scenarios with regard to maize cultures

Using ecological data compiled from scientific literature on pest, pathogen and weed species characteristic in maize cultures in Hungary, we defined monthly climate profile indicators and applied them to complete a comparative analysis of the historical and modelled climate change scenario meteorological data of the city of Debrecen. Our results call attention to a drastic decline of the competitive ability of maize as compared to several C4 and especially C3 plants. According to the stricter scenarios, the frequency of potential pest and pathogen damage emergency situations will grow significantly by the end of the century.

Impacts of climate change on vegetation distribution. No. 1: Climate change induced vegetation shifts in the palearctic region

Global average temperature has increased and precipitation pattern has altered over the past 100 years due to increases in greenhouse gases. These changes will alter numerous site factors and biochemical processes of vegetative communities such as nutrient and water availability, permafrost thawing, fire regime, biotic interactions and invasion. As a consequence, climate change is expected to alter distribution ranges of many species and communities as well as boundaries of biomes. Shifting of species and vegetation zones northwards and upwards in elevation has already been observed. Besides, several experiments have been conducted and simulations have been run all over the world in order to predict possible range shifts and ecological risks. In this paper, we review literature available in Web of Science on Europe and boreal Eurasia and give an overview of observed and predicted changes in vegetation in these regions. The main trends include advance of the tree line, reduction of the alpine vegetation belt, drought risk, forest diebacks, a shift from coniferous forests to deciduous forests and invasion. It is still controversial if species migration will be able to keep pace with climate change.

The effect of climate change on the potential distribution of the European Phlebotomus species and the parasite Leishmania infantum in 2011-2070. A climate envelope modeling approach

Aims: In the Mediterranean areas of Europe, leishmanisasis is one of the most emerging vector-borne diseases. Members of genus Phlebotomus are the primary vectors of the genus Leishmania. To track the human health effect of climate change it is a very important interdisciplinary question to study whether the climatic requirements and geographical distribution of the vectors of human pathogen organisms correlate with each other. Our study intended to explore the potential effects of ongoing climate change, in particular through a potential upward altitudinal and latitudinal shift of the distribution of the parasite Leishmania infantum, its vectors Phlebotomus ariasi, P. neglectus, P. perfiliewi, P. perniciosus, and P. tobbi, and some other sandfly species: P. papatasi, P. sergenti, and P. similis. Methods: By using a climate envelope modelling (CEM) method we modelled the current and future (2011-2070) potential distribution of 8 European sandfly species and L. infantum based on the current distribution using the REMO regional climate model. Results: We found that by the end of the 2060’s most parts of Western Europe can be colonized by sandfly species, mostly by P. ariasi and P. pernicosus. P. ariasi showed the greatest potential northward expansion. For all the studied vectors of L. infantum the entire Mediterranean Basin and South-Eastern Europe seemed to be suitable. L. infantum can affect the Eastern Mediterranean, without notable northward expansion. Our model resulted 1 to 2 months prolongation of the potentially active period of P. neglectus P. papatasi and P. perniciosus for the 2060’s in Southern Hungary. Conclusion: Our findings confirm the concerns that leishmanisais can become a real hazard for the major part of the European population to the end of the 21th century and the Carpathian Basin is a particularly vulnerable area.