Effects of Temperature–Climate Patterns on the Production of Some Competitive Species on Grounds of Modelling

Climate change has serious effects on the setting up and the operation of natural ecosystems. Small increase in temperature could cause rise in the amount of some species or potential disappearance of others. During our researches, the dispersion of the species and biomass production of a theoretical ecosystem were examined on the effect of the temperature–climate change. The answers of the ecosystems which are given to the climate change could be described by means of global climate modelling and dynamic vegetation models. The examination of the operation of the ecosystems is only possible in huge centres on supercomputers because of the number and the complexity of the calculation. The number of the calculation could be decreased to the level of a PC by considering the temperature and the reproduction during modelling a theoretical ecosystem, and several important theoretical questions could be answered.

A rendszerváltás után alapított és nemzetközileg sikeressé vált magyar vállalatok versenyképessége = The competitiveness of Hungarian companies that were founded and became successful internationally after the change of the economic system

A műhelytanulmány annak a kutatási munkának az első eredménye, amelyben a rendszerváltás után nemzetközileg sikeressé vált magyar vállalatok sikertényezőinek elemzését tűztük ki célul. A kérdés jelentőségét abban látjuk, hogy a magyar piac korlátozott belső nagysága miatt a sikeres magyar vállalatok számára a külföldön való terjeszkedés megkerülhetetlen stratégiai követelmény. A mélyinterjúkon alapuló kutatáshoz szakirodalmi áttekintést végeztünk, összeállítottuk kutatási propozíciónkat, kidolgoztuk a mélyinterjúknál használandó kérdéslistát. Ez a műhelytanulmány az első két mélyinterjú anyagát tartalmazza, de kidolgozás és előkészítés alatt vannak további vállalati esettanulmányok is. ----- This working paper presents the first results of our research project aiming to analyze the success factors of Hungarian companies that became successful internationally after the change in the economic system in Hungary. We believe this is a significant topic as international expansion for successful Hungarian companies is a strategic requirement, due to the limited size of domestic markets. Our research is methodologically based on in-depth interviews, backed by literature review. We have developed propositions and an outline for semi-structured interviews. This working paper covers the recorded material of two in-depth interviews of executives from two different companies, while additional case studies are still being prepared.

Intenzitásalapú modellezés és a mértékcsere (Intensity-based modeling and thje change of measure)

A dolgozatban a hitelderivatívák intenzitásalapú modellezésének néhány kérdését vizsgáljuk meg. Megmutatjuk, hogy alkalmas mértékcserével nemcsak a duplán sztochasztikus folyamatok, hanem tetszőleges intenzitással rendelkező pontfolyamat esetén is kiszámolható az összetett kár- és csődfolyamat eloszlásának Laplace-transzformáltja. _____ The paper addresses questions concerning the use of intensity based modeling in the pricing of credit derivatives. As the specification of the distribution of the lossprocess is a non-trivial exercise, the well-know technique for this task utilizes the inversion of the Laplace-transform. A popular choice for the model is the class of doubly stochastic processes given that their Laplace-transforms can be determined easily. Unfortunately these processes lack several key features supported by the empirical observations, e.g. they cannot replicate the self-exciting nature of defaults. The aim of the paper is to show that by using an appropriate change of measure the Laplace-transform can be calculated not only for a doubly stochastic process, but for an arbitrary point process with intensity as well. To support the application of the technique, we investigate the e®ect of the change of measure on the stochastic nature of the underlying process.

Seasonal change of oribatid mite communities (Acari, Oribatida) in three different types of microhabitats in an oak forest

Oribatid mites are one of the most abundant groups of the ground-dwelling mesofauna. They can be found in almost every terrestrial habitat all over the world and they are characterized by great species richness and great number of individuals. In spite of that not enough is known about their behaviour on community level and their spatial and temporal pattern in different habitats of the world. In our present study the seasonal behaviour of oribatid mite communities was analysed in three types of microhabitats in a temperate deciduous forest: in leaf litter, soil and moss. Samples were collected at a given site in a year and a half and the oribatid mite communities living there were studied on genus level along with the changes of meteorological factors characteristic of the area. The results show that corresponding to similar previous researches, the communities in our study do not have a seasonally changing, returning pattern either. Based on this, we can conclude that climatic differences and differences in other seasonally changing factors between the seasons do not have a significant role in the annual change of communities. Besides that we discovered that the communities of the three microhabitats are not completely the same. It is the oribatid mite community of the moss which differs mostly from communities in the leaf litter and in the soil. Our study calls attention among others to the fact that compositional changes of the oribatid mite communities living all over the world and their causes are unclear to date.

Change of composition and diversity of species and grassland management between different grazing intensity in Pannonian dry and wet grasslands

Investigations were carried out in wet and dry pasture. Coenological recordings were taken in three zones. The first zone (“A”) located 0-50 m near the stable, second zone (“B”) located 50-150 m from the stable, while the third zone (“C”) located farther than 150 m. We have carried out analyses of ecological and environmental factors and life form types. Based on our results for both dry and wet grasslands, quadrates of “A” zone were well isolated from the rest of the zones. Overgrazing, which involves considerable trampling, vanishes differences among vegetations, thereby promotes weed and disturbance tolerant rich vegetation. The lowest species number and diversity could be found here. Due to the nitrogen enrichment due to the constant presence of livestock, drier and less heat demanding habitat developed in the “A” zones, according to the environmental indicators. Because of the change in management, conservation and diversity values of “C” zone increased, however, according to nature protection values it underperformed compared to “B” zone. According to the sample area, wet grasslands from the sandy areas of Kiskunság, preserve nature protection values and grass composition better moving away from stables, due to less grazing pressure. Drier backgrounds tolerate stronger grazing pressure.

Changing visual value of deciduous species in the climate change

The article deals with the changing visual value of deciduous species. Due to climate change, the climatic patterns found on the plants’ growing area may change. Therefore, foliage of deciduous trees changes itscolor in the fall season witha different timing and intensity. This shift can modify the functional, ornamental and ecological value of these plants in the fall season, which is of special interest in the context of landscape design. However, this effect of climate change hasn’t been examined in terms of landscape architecture yet.In the article we are looking for deciduous species that can be appropriate subjectsforresearch, we are giving suggestions for choosing the right location for a future research and proposing available resources of satellite images, that can provide the basis for evaluation of leaf coloring. We also review already existing methods for calculating the degree of fall leaf coloring.We propose a novel method of satellite image processing to evaluate the coloring of a stand. Leaf Coloring Index (LCI) shows the leaf color’s relation to the color realms. LCI is appropriate for setting up a phenological model based onclimate data in a future research. Based on future climate models, the change of the examined stand’s visual value can be predicted. The results might affect the future use of plant species in landscape architecture.

A gyenge hazai innovációs teljesítmény intézményi magyarázatához. Vitaírás a nemzetközi innovációs versenyben való részvétel akadályairól (Towards an institutional explanation of the country's weak innovation performance)

Miért van a magyar gazdaság hasonlóan kritikus helyzetben, mint a rendszerváltást megelőző időkben? Miért nem sikerül az eladósodást megállítani, a gazdaságot konszolidálni, és fenntartható növekedési pályára állítani? Ennek közvetlen okát a szerzők a fejlődés féloldalasságában és a duális gazdasági szerkezetben látják. A piacgazdasági intézmények bevezetése ugyanis nem járt együtt az egész gazdaságot (vagy legalábbis annak nagy részét) átfogó, a tudásvezérelt információgazdaság felé mutató, gyors fejlődéssel. Számos indikátor azt jelzi, hogy az ország lemaradt a nemzetközi innovációs versenyben. Az innovációk elégtelensége azonban nem véletlen, nem exogén adottság, hanem a formális piaci intézmények mögött meghúzódó valós intézményi berendezkedéssel, a gazdaságban ténylegesen észlelhető magatartásmintákkal magyarázható. A piacgazdasági intézmények és jogi keretek, amelyek elvileg lehetőséget adnak az erőforrásokhoz való szabad és nyílt hozzáférésre, csak részben töltődtek meg tartalommal. Az országban még mindig meglehetősen korlátozott a sikeres belépés lehetősége a piaci és a politikai arénába, azaz a magyar társadalom - a north-i terminológiával élve - "korlátozott hozzáférésre alapozott társadalomként" írható le. Az a tény, hogy a piaci szereplők esélyei az államhoz és intézményeihez fűződő kapcsolatoktól függően nagyban különböznek egymástól, és a gazdasági szereplők rendszerszerűen használják e kapcsolatokat járadékszerzésre, lefojtja az innovációt, és újra és újra megakasztja a fejlődést. / === / Why is Hungary's economy still in a critical state similar to the one before the change of system? Why is the indebtedness not being halted, the economy consolidated or vital structural reforms performed? The authors see the direct cause in lopsided development and a dual economic structure. The introduction of market economic institutions was not followed by rapid, overall development towards a knowledge-led, information economy. Several indicators show how Hungary has fallen behind in competition for international innovation. The inadequacy is not a fortuitous, exogenous attribute, but explicable in terms of a real institutional setup underlying the formal market institutions, and of actual behaviour patterns found in the economy. Only in part has substance been gained by the institutions and legal frames of a market economy that theoretically would provide free and open access to resources. The scope for successful entry into the market or political arena remains very narrow, so that in Douglass North's terms, Hungary's is still "a society based on restricted access." Innovation is stifled and development repeatedly impeded by the fact that market players' chances differ widely depending on their connections with the state and its institutions and such connections are used regularly in rent-seeking.

Population dynamics of the Sycamore Lace Bug (Corythucha Ciliata, Say, Heteroptera: Tingidae) in Hungary

Based on the observation of more than 10 000 leaves of plane trees, four populations of Corythucha ciliata (Say, 1832) (Heteroptera: Tingidae) are investigated. After having introduced some parameters derived from the data, we draw spatial-temporal patterns and describe the seasonal population dynamics of Corythucha ciliata. Amongst others, the temporal change of the density of population, the state plane of larvae–adults, the inclination to accumulate, and the intraspecific competition are examined. Population and biomass dynamics is characterized for populations with and without limited nutrient source in case of different weather circumstances and effects.

Generational differences in consumption patterns in Hungary

Various authors have used the term consumer society with a number of different meanings, yet one common point has been the shift of focus to the consumer ethos, which alters the everyday life of society members and their relationship to each other and society as a whole. One’s relationship to consumption determines fundamental levels of consumption and for what purposes (e.g. hedonic values, family and savings), thus it is essential to explore this relationship to develop an understanding of consumer behaviour and to create effective marketing messages. This paper provides a brief summary of the various approaches and research lines of consumer culture and reviews the findings of the first, qualitative phase of our consumer culture study in Hungary. The purpose of this research programme is to analyse the changes in people’s relationships to consumption since the change of regime.

Stratégiai paradigmaváltás szervezeti verseny(képesség) és az Operations management központi szerepe (Central role of strategic paradigm change, corporate competitiveness and operations management)

Az elmúlt két évtized folyamán a menedzserek megtanultak a megújult szabályok szerint játszani. Tudatosították, hogy a vállalatuk eredményes navigálásához folyamatosan figyelniük és adaptálniuk kell a legújabb módszereket, elméleteket. Jelen tanulmányával a szerző ezt a folyamatot kívánja segíteni, valamint arra az alapvető kérdésre keresi a választ, hogy érdemes-e a rendkívül gyorsan változó világban hosszabb távú célok meghatározásával foglalkozni, és ha igen, akkor mire összpontosítsák a vállalatok erőfeszítéseiket. Milyen részletezettséggel, milyen módon határozzák meg az elképzeléseiket úgy, hogy közben megőrizzék a vállalat flexibilitását, a változások idején nélkülözhetetlen agilitást. A szerző arra vállalkozik, hogy feltárja a stratégiai paradigmaváltás fejlődését, a termelési stratégia, az operations management központi meghatározó szereppé válását, valamint áttekintse a termelési és szolgáltatási rendszervezetés (OM) elveinek, eszközeinek, módszereinek fejlődését, kölcsönhatását, összefüggéseit. _______ Change of paradigm has taken place in strategic planning. Fight for position turned into a fight of movement. Companies strive to achieve individual, not copyable organizational performance, as well as to realize their business strategies by means of value generating, proactive approach. Operative management now placed in the focus of production strategy is becoming the compass, the driving force of leadership. The management of production and service systems has grown into independent scientific disciplines. It yielded such principles, tools and methods which are present as world-renowned blueprints (scientific tools) in the field of maintaining and developing corporate performance. In the present study the author specifies and discusses the tools of operative management as criteria of value generation aiming at quality and cost efficiency. He analyses the backto- back character, interrelationship of quality, TQM (Total Quality Management), TPS (Toyota Production System) and JIT (Just in Time). He examines the effects thereof on corporate performance where significant and strong relationship can be demonstrated in case there is an ability to plan and develop new products. The current new OM (Operations Management) techniques increasingly rely upon the quality of human resources, the permanent improvement of procedures as well as focusing on tight cooperation with suppliers/customers. Supply chain management, core competence management, service management now represent a “new generation” of the OM methods, processes, serving at the same time as basis and starting point for expectable future techniques as well.