Vállalati magatartás és túlélési esélyek a posztszocialista átmenetgazdaságban (Corporate behaviour and chances of survival in a post-socialist transitional economy)

A tanulmányban paneladatokra támaszkodva vizsgáljuk a hazai feldolgozóipari vállalkozások középtávú túlélési esélyeit befolyásoló tényezőket. A kutatás során az 1993-ban mintába került cégekhez tértünk vissza 2000-ben. Az adatok szerint az ágazat, a létszám és a kapacitáskihasználtság mellett a vezetői magatartás és a vállalati stratégia is érdemben befolyásolta a vállalatok fennmaradási esélyeit. Azok a szervezetek, amelyekben a vezetők 1993-ban úgy vélekedtek, hogy a gazdaságban a normaszegő magatartás sikerre számíthat, az átlagosnál kisebb valószínűséggel maradtak életben az évtized végére. Azok a vállalatok, amelyeknek vezetői a vizsgálat elején sikeresnek tartották cégüket, illetve amelyek már 1993-ban is inkább megoldó jellegű válságmenedzselési eszközöket alkalmaztak, nagyobb arányban maradtak fenn, mint azok, amelyek halasztó jellegű eszközökkel próbáltak úrrá lenni a transzformációs visszaesés okozta krízisen. ________ The study uses panel data to examine the factor affected medium-term changes in the chances of survival among Hungarian manufacturing firms. The researchers revisited in 2000 firms surveyed in a 1993 sample. The figures show firms survival chances vary essentially not only by industry, size of labour force and utilization of capacity, but according to managerial behaviour and corporate strategy. Those whose managers be-lieved in 1993 that behaviour breaching accepted norms would succeed in the economy had a lower than average likelihood of surviving until the end of the decade. The survival rate was higher among those whose managers thought they would be successful or were already applying crisis-management techniques of a remedial nature in 1993, than among those using delaying tactics to tackle a crisis caused by the transformational recession.

Comparative analysis of the relationship between phenological phenomena and meteorological indicators based on insect and plant monitoring

Climate change is one of the biggest environmental problems of the 21st century. The most sensitive indicators of the effects of the climatic changes are phenological processes of the biota. The effects of climate change which were observed the earliest are the remarkable changes in the phenology (i.e. the timing of the phenophases) of the plants and animals, which have been systematically monitored later. In our research we searched for the answer: which meteorological factors show the strongest statistical relationships with phenological phenomena based on some chosen plant and insect species (in case of which large phenological databases are available). Our study was based on two large databases: one of them is the Lepidoptera database of the Hungarian Plant Protection and Forestry Light Trap Network, the other one is the Geophytes Phenology Database of the Botanical Garden of Eötvös Loránd University. In the case of butterflies, statistically defined phenological dates were determined based on the daily collection data, while in the case of plants, observation data on blooming were available. The same meteorological indicators were applied for both groups in our study. On the basis of the data series, analyses of correlation were carried out and a new indicator, the so-called G index was introduced, summing up the number of correlations which were found to be significant on the different levels of significance. In our present study we compare the significant meteorological factors and analyse the differences based on the correlation data on plants and butterflies. Data on butterflies are much more varied regarding the effectiveness of the meteorological factors.