Climatic effects on the phenology of geophytes

Nowadays, the scientific and social significance of the research of climatic effects has become outstanding. In order to be able to predict the ecological effects of the global climate change, it is necessary to study monitoring databases of the past and explore connections. For the case study mentioned in the title, historical weather data series from the Hungarian Meteorological Service and Szaniszló Priszter’s monitoring data on the phenology of geophytes have been used. These data describe on which days the observed geophytes budded, were blooming and withered. In our research we have found that the classification of the observed years according to phenological events and the classification of those according to the frequency distribution of meteorological parameters show similar patterns, and the one variable group is suitable for explaining the pattern shown by the other one. Furthermore, our important result is that the dates of all three observed phenophases correlate significantly with the average of the daily temperature fluctuation in the given period. The second most often significant parameter is the number of frosty days, this also seem to be determinant for all phenophases. Usual approaches based on the temperature sum and the average temperature don’t seem to be really important in this respect. According to the results of the research, it has turned out that the phenology of geophytes can be well modelled with the linear combination of suitable meteorological parameters

Corporate cash-pool valuation in a multi-firm context: a closed formula

Following our earlier paper on the subject, we present a general closed formula to value the interest savings due to a multi-firm cash-pool system. Assuming normal distribution of the accounts the total savings can be expressed as the product of three independent factors representing the interest spread, the number and the correlation of the firms, and the time-dependent distribution of the cash accounts. We derive analytic results for two special processes one characterizing the initial build-up period and the other describing the mature period. The value gained in the stationary system can be thought of as the interest, paid at the net interest spread rate on the standard deviation of the account. We show that pooling has substantial value already in the transient period. In order to increase the practical relevance of our analysis we discuss possible extensions of our model and we show how real option pricing technics can be applied here.