Theory and practice in the field of foresight

Purpose – The paper aims to explore the gap between theory and practice in foresight and to give some suggestions on how to reduce it. Design/methodology/approach – Analysis of practical foresight activities and suggestions are based on a literature review, the author's own research and practice in the field of foresight and futures studies, and her participation in the work of a European project (COST A22). Findings – Two different types of practical foresight activities have developed. One of them, the practice of foresight of critical futures studies (FCFS) is an application of a theory of futures studies. The other, termed here as praxis foresight (PF), has no theoretical basis and responds directly to practical needs. At present a gap can be perceived between theory and practice. PF distinguishes itself from the practice and theory of FCFS and narrows the construction space of futures. Neither FCFS nor PF deals with content issues of the outer world. Reducing the gap depends on renewal of joint discourses and research about experience of different practical foresight activities and manageability of complex dynamics in foresight. Production and feedback of self-reflective and reflective foresight knowledge could improve theory and practice. Originality/value – Contemporary practical foresight activities are analysed and suggestions to reduce the gap are developed in the context of the linkage between theory and practice. This paper is thought provoking for futurists, foresight managers and university researchers.

A tranzakciós költségek és a szabványosítás kapcsolata (Relationship between transaction costs and standardization)

Az elmúlt néhány évtizedben a szabványosítás terén igen komoly változások mentek végbe. Ugrásszerűen megnőtt a szabványok száma, és jelentősen átalakult a szabványosítás folyamata is. Ezzel párhuzamosan a téma gazdasági hatásaival foglalkozó kutatások száma is megsokszorozódott, ami elsősorban a hálózati externáliák irodalmának robbanásszerű gyarapodásának köszönhető. Jelen tanulmány – az elméletek fősodrától eltérően – a tranzakciós költségek elméletében (TKE) helyezi el a szabványosítást. A szabványok és a tranzakciós költségek kapcsolatáról már születtek korábban is tanulmányok, de ezek a szabványoknak a tranzakciós költségekre gyakorolt hatásaira fókuszáltak. A tanulmány ezzel szemben arra helyezi a hangsúlyt, hogy azonosítsa a tranzakciós költségeknek a szabványosításra gyakorolt hatásait. A kutatás célja, hogy olyan elméleti alapot adjon, amelyben a témakör átfogóan elemezhető. A fő kutatási kérdés az, hogy mitől függ az, hogy melyik mechanizmus kereteiben érdemes a szabványosítást lebonyolítani. ________ Significant changes have characterized the last few decades of standardization. The number of standards has dramatically increased and processes of standardization have also changed a lot. At the same time the amount of researches that are concerned with the economic impact of standardization has also multiplied due to the boom in the literature of network externalities. Unlike the mainstream, this paper places standardization in the theory of transaction cost economics. Although there are earlier papers that are concerned with the relationship between standards and transaction costs, these studies focus on the impact of standards on transaction costs. In contrast, this paper lays emphasis on the identification of the impact of transaction costs on standardization. This study aims to provide a theoretical basis for the comprehensive analyses. The main research question: What determines which coordination mechanism is used to evolve a standard?