A költségvetési korlát megkeményítése a posztszocialista országokban = Hardening of the budget constraint in the post-socialist countries

A költségvetési korlát megkeményítése nem egyforma mértékben ment végbe minden posztszocialista gazdaságban. Egyes országokban messzire jutottak ebben a tekintetben, másokban viszont alig változott az indulóállapot. A tanulmány áttekinti a költségvetési korlát puhaságának különböző megnyilvánulásait: az állami támogatásokat, a puha adózást, a nem teljesítő bankkölcsönöket, a vállalatközi tartozások felgyülemlését és a kifizetetlen béreket. A jelenséget sokféle tényező okozza, amelyek többnyire együttesen jelentkeznek. Az állami tulajdon fenntartása kedvez a puha költségvetési szindróma megrögződésének, a privatizálás elősegíti a keményítést, de nem elégséges feltétele a kemény korlát érvényesítésének. Ehhez megfelelő politikai, jogi és gazdasági környezetet kell céltudatosan kialakítani. A posztszocialista átmenet kezdetén sokan azt hitték, hogy a hatékony piacgazdaság létrehozásához elegendő lesz megvalósítani a liberalizáció, privatizáció és stabilizáció "szentháromságát". Mára már kiderült, hogy a költségvetési korlát megkeményítése az említett három feladattal egyenrangúan fontos. Ahol ez nem valósul meg (például Oroszország), ott a privatizáció nem hozza meg a várt eredményt. ___________________ The budget constraint has not hardened to equal degrees in the various post-socialist countries. In some of them, a great deal has been done in this respect, while in others there has been hardly any change from the initial state. This study surveys the typical manifestations of softness of the budget constraint, such as state subsidies, soft taxation, non-performing loans, the accumulation of trade arrears between firms, and the build-up of wage arrears. Softness of the budget constraint is caused by several factors that tend to act in combination. Thus retention of state ownership helps to preserve the soft budget-constraint syndrome, while privatization encourages the budget constraint to harden, although it does not form a sufficient condition for it to happen. Purposeful development of the requisite political, legal and economic conditions is also required. It was widely maintained at the outset of the post-socialist transition that the 'Holy Trinity' of liberalization, privatization and stabilization would suffice to produce an efficient market economy. Since then, it has become clear that hardening the budget constraint needs to be given equal priority with these. Otherwise, the effects of privatization will fall short of expectations, as they have in Russia, for example.

Még egyszer a "rendszerparadigmáról". Tisztázás és kiegészítések a posztszocialista régió tapasztalatainak fényében = About the system paradigm once again: Clarification and additions in the light of experiences in the post-socialist region

A paradigma kifejezést Thomas Kuhn honosította meg a tudományfilozófiában: így nevezte el azt a sajátos szemléletmódot, ahogyan egy kutatási irányzat rátekint vizsgálata tárgyára. Azonos paradigmát használó kutatók hasonló kérdésekre keresik a választ, hasonló módszereket és fogalmakat alkalmaznak. A szerző 1999-ben publikált cikkében vezette be a "rendszerparadigma" kifejezést, amely a társadalomban működő rendszereket helyezi a vizsgálat középpontjába. A tanulmány a posztszocialista átalakulás során szerzett tapasztalatok alapján fejleszti tovább a korábbi cikkben kifejtett elméleti gondolatokat. Az első rész a szocialista és a kapitalista rendszert hasonlítja össze; leírja fő jellemzőiket, majd megállapítja, hogy Észak-Korea és Kuba kivételével az egykori szocialista országokban meghonosodott a kapitalista rendszer. A második rész a politikai-kormányzati formák szerint tipologizálja a kapitalizmus változatait. Három markáns típust különböztet meg: a demokráciát, az autokráciát és a diktatúrát. Huntington a demokratizálás harmadik hullámáról írt. A tanulmány arra a következtetésre jut, hogy ez a hullám elapadt, a 47 posztszocialista ország lakosságának mindössze egytizede él demokráciában, a többiben autokrácia vagy diktatúra uralkodik. A harmadik rész Magyarországra alkalmazza a kialakított fogalmi és elemzési apparátust: itt kapitalizmus van, a politikai-kormányzati forma autokrácia - lényeges közös jellemzők mutathatók ki más kapitalista országokkal, illetve más autokráciákkal. Ez összefér azzal a felismeréssel, hogy egyes - nem alapvető jelentőségű - vonások egyediek, "hungarikumok", különböznek minden más ország tulajdonságaitól. _____ The expression paradigm, introduced into the philosophy of science by Thomas Kuhn for the way a research trend views the subject examined, denotes a case where researchers pursue similar questions by similar methods with similar concepts. The author introduced the expression system paradigm" in a 1999 article centred on the systems operating in society. This paper takes those theoretical ideas further, based on experience in the post-socialist transformation. The first part compares the socialist and capitalist systems and their main features, establishing that all former socialist countries but North Korea and Cuba have embraced the capitalist system. The second adds a typology of the varieties of capitalism by politico-governmental form, marking three types: democracy, autocracy and dictatorship. Huntington writes of a third wave of democratization, which this study concludes has ceased. Democracy reigns in only 10 per cent of the 47 post-socialist countries, autocracy or dictatorship in the others. The third part applies this conceptual and analytical framework to Hungary, where capitalism prevails, with autocracy as its politico-governmental form. It shows strongly similar features to other capitalist countries and other autocracies. This is compatible with recognizing that some features of less than fundamental importance are specific to Hungary and differ from those elsewhere.

On the peculiar relevance of a fundamental dilemma of minimum-wage regulation in post-socialism – apropos of an international investigation

To the extent minimum-wage regulation is effective in fighting against excessive earnings handicaps of those at the lower end-tail of earnings distribution, it may have the side-effect of worsening their employment prospects. A demand-and-supply interpretation of data on the relative employment rate and earnings position of the least educated in the EU27 suggests that the resulting dilemma might be particularly relevant for minimum-wage policies in post-socialist countries.

"It's so little money you could make as much at home" - options for work in an impoverished rural region of high unemployment.

Hungary has a higher unemployment rate than the member states of the European Union and even most former socialist countries. This rate for 15-64 year-olds has been around 56% since 1999, as against 66% in the European Union (OECD Employment Database). There is also a high degree of regional unevenness within the country. The situation is worst in North Hungary, an area of multiple economic and social deprivations. Several pieces of research have analysed the causes of long-term unemployment and have highlighted the main social, geographical and institutional factors behind it. People of low educational attainment who live in small villages and members of the Roma minority are particularly likely to have been without jobs for a long time.

An analysis of the labor market situation of vocational students based on national and international data

The article focuses on the labour market situation and opportunities of the Hungarian vocational students. After briefly placing the topic in an international context, the study introduces the findings of the Hungarian empirical researches. Due to the differences between the various national education systems, it is not easy to make international comparisons; therefore I chose former socialist countries with characteristics similar to those of Hungary. When comparing the relevant data, it became clear that obtaining a diploma provides more advantages in Hungary. Hungarian researches suggest that vocational schools mostly attract students with poor competence test scores at the end of primary school. Also a significant proportion of these students are disadvantaged. Vocational students are the most likely to drop out of the system and their return to the school later is sporadic at best. Although a completed VET improves their employment conditions and prospects, many of the graduates will leave their profession or do unskilled labour. Their labour income varies greatly depending on their type of trade and experience gained.

Minsk and Budapest, the two capital cities. Selected studies of post-socialist urban geography and ecological problems of urban areas

The official cooperation between the Hungarian and the Belarusian geography began to be outlined in a sunny afternoon of June 2010 in the Minsk building of the Geographic Faculty of the Belarusian State University, four years ago. Then we reviewed the potential frames of cooperation with Professor Ekaterina Antipova. It was supported by the academican Károly Kocsis, member of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, director of the Geographical Research Institute, and we could also win the support of the dean Ivan Pirozhnik and the academician Vladimir Loginov from the Belarusian State University and the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, respectively. This informal cooperation became official in the autumn of 2010 in the frame of the Academic Mobility Agreement Project between the Hungarian and the Belarusian academies of sciences. Since then several publications have appeared about Hungary and Belarus in the geographic journals of both countries, however, this is the first, long awaited, significant common publication. Besides the project-based co-operations like e. g. the EastMig (www.eastmig.mtafki.hu) and the ReSEP-CEE (www.mtafki.hu/ReSEP_CEE_Be.html) supported by the Visegrad Fund, a vivid student exchange program was also launched from the autumn of 2010 between the Geographic Research Institute of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, and the Geographic Faculty of the Belarusian State University with the scholarship program of the Visegrad Fund. Later the Department of Economic Geography of the Corvinus University of Budapest, headed by István Tózsa became also an active partner of the cooperation. The publishing expenses of this book are also fully financed by the Department of Economic Geography.