The Polluter Profits Principle: A Note on the Grandfathering of CO2 Emissions Rights in Lax-Cap Trading Regimes

Grandfathering is currently the main principle for the initial allocation of tradable CO2 emission rights under the European cap-and-trade scheme. Furthermore, political feasibility often requires non-restrictive emission caps. Grandfathering under lax cap is unjust, biased and brings polluters unintended windfall profits. Still, in any post-Kyoto international CO2 regime, lax caps may be critical in coaxing binding emission targets out of more countries, especially those in the less-developed world. This paper argues that there is a certain quantity of emission rights between the initial and the optimal emissions, the grandfathering of which brings polluters zero windfall profits or zero windfall losses. Our theoretical concept of zero-windfall grandfathering can be used to demonstrate the windfall profits that have emerged at company level during the first EU trading period. It might thus encourage governments to embrace auctioning, and to combine it with grandfathering as a legitimate tool in the initial allocation of emission rights in later trading regimes.

Az agrárkereskedelem változása Magyarország és az Európai Unió között a csatlakozás után (The post-accession change in agricultural trading between Hungary and the EU)

2004-ben Magyarország kilenc közép-kelet-európai országgal együtt csatlakozott az Európai Unióhoz, ami számos változást idézett elő az agrárkereskedelem terén. A cikk célja, hogy a legfrissebb adatok és a szakirodalmi fejlemények tükrében bemutassa, hogyan alakult Magyarországon a mezőgazdasági alapanyagok és a feldolgozott termékek kereskedelme az Európai Unióval. A megnyilvánuló komparatív előnyök módszerét alkalmazva a cikk számos következtetésre jutott. Először is világossá vált, hogy a csatlakozás növelte az agrárkereskedelem intenzitását, ám negatív hatással volt a kereskedelem egyenlegére. Kimutatható továbbá, hogy Magyarország az alacsony hozzáadott értékű alapanyagexportra és a magas hozzáadott értékű feldolgozott termékek importjára koncentrált a csatlakozás után, noha ezek komparatív előnyei nagymértékben megváltoztak egy hatékony alkalmazkodási folyamat következtében. A változások tényét támasztják alá a különböző rövid és hosszú távú stabilitásvizsgálatok is, amelyek az agrártermékek megnövekedett versenyére utalnak az EU-15 piacán. Agrárpolitikai szempontból az elemzések alátámasztják a strukturális reformok szükségességét. / === / Numerous changes in agricultural trading from the EU accession of Hungary and nine other Central-East European countries in 2004. The article sets out to present, in the light of the latest figures and written contributions, how Hungary’s EU trade in agricultural raw and semi-processed products developed thereafter. It uses the method of manifest comparative advantages to reach its conclusions. First, it became clear that accession increased the intensity of agricultural trading, although it had a detrimental effect on the trade balance. It also appeared that post-accession Hungary was concentrating on exports of basic materials of low added value and imports of processed articles with high added value, although these comparative advantages were much altered by an effective process of adaptation. The fact of the changes is supported by various short and long-term stability examinations, which point to increased competition for agricultural products on EU15 markets. From the policy point of view, the analyses support the need for structural reforms.

Analyzing interrelated stochastic trend and seasonality on the example of energy trading data

The correct modelling of long- and short-term seasonality is a very interesting issue. The choice between the deterministic and stochastic modelling of trend and seasonality and their implications are as relevant as the case of deterministic and stochastic trends itself. The study considers the special case when the stochastic trend and seasonality do not evolve independently and the usual differencing filters do not apply. The results are applied to the day-ahead (spot) trading data of some main European energy exchanges (power and natural gas).

Analyzing interrelated stochastic trend and seasonality on the example of energy trading data

The correct modelling of long- and short-term seasonality is a very interesting issue. The choice between the deterministic and stochastic modelling of trend and seasonality and their implications are as relevant as the case of deterministic and stochastic trends itself. The study considers the special case when the stochastic trend and seasonality do not evolve independently and the usual differencing filters do not apply. The results are applied to the day-ahead (spot) trading data of some main European energy exchanges (power and natural gas).

Trading between perceived risks and benefits related to biosimilar biological treatment in Crohn’s disease; discrete choice experiment among gastroenterologists

Objective: The objective of the study is to explore preferences of gastroenterologists for biosimilar drugs in Crohn’s Disease and reveal trade-offs between the perceived risks and benefits related to biosimilar drugs. Method: Discrete choice experiment was carried out involving 51 Hungarian gastroenterologists in May, 2014. The following attributes were used to describe hypothetical choice sets: 1) type of the treatment (biosimilar/originator) 2) severity of disease 3) availability of continuous medicine supply 4) frequency of the efficacy check-ups. Multinomial logit model was used to differentiate between three attitude types: 1) always opting for the originator 2) willing to consider biosimilar for biological-naïve patients only 3) willing to consider biosimilar treatment for both types of patients. Conditional logit model was used to estimate the probabilities of choosing a given profile. Results: Men, senior consultants, working in IBD center and treating more patients are more likely to willing to consider biosimilar for biological-naïve patients only. Treatment type (originator/biosimilar) was the most important determinant of choice for patients already treated with biologicals, and the availability of continuous medicine supply in the case biological-naïve patients. The probabilities of choosing the biosimilar with all the benefits offered over the originator under current reimbursement conditions are 89% vs 11% for new patients, and 44% vs 56% for patients already treated with biological. Conclusions: Gastroenterologists were willing to trade between perceived risks and benefits of biosimilars. The continuous medical supply would be one of the major benefits of biosimilars. However, benefits offered in the scenarios do not compensate for the change from the originator to the biosimilar treatment of patients already treated with biologicals.