7 resultados para Resins of ionic exchange
em Corvinus Research Archive - The institutional repository for the Corvinus University of Budapest
Resumo:
rsunkban azt vizsgljuk, hogy a hossz lejrat hatrids rfolyamok stacionaritst felttelez hibakorrekcis modellek, amelyeknek korbbi szmtsok szerint - a vilg devizapiaci forgalmnak mintegy 75 szzalkt kitev fejlett ipari orszgokra alkalmazva - kitn a mintn kvli elrejelz erejk, hogyan kpesek hrom keletkzp- eurpai orszg devizarfolyamt elrejelezni. A hrom vizsglat al vont deviza (cseh, magyar, lengyel) esetben az eredmnyek relcinknt nagyon eltrnek, s sszessgben kedveztlenebbek, mint a fejlett ipari orszgokra kapott eredmnyek, amit a nem teljesen rugalmas rfolyamrezsim, a rendelkezsre ll adatsor rvidsge, az eurzna-csatlakozshoz kapcsold bizonytalansgok, a devizakockzati s a hatrids kamatprmium ltezse, tovbb a Balassa-Samuelson-hats egyttes befolysaknt tudunk rtelmezni. JEL kd: E43, F31, F47. /===/ This paper studies whether models that assume long-maturity forward exchange rates are stationary (which proved in earlier studies to provide superior forecasting ability when applied to exchange rates of major currencies) are capable of forecasting the Euro exchange rates of three Central-East European currencies (the Czech koruna, Hungarian forint and Polish zloty). The results for the three currencies differ from each other and are generally much worse than those obtained earlier for major currencies. These unfavourable results are attributed to the consequences of managed exchange-rate systems, to the short time series available, to uncertainties related to future Euro-zone entry, to the existence of a foreign exchange and term premium, and to the BalassaSamuelson effect.
Resumo:
The currency war, as it has become known, has three aspects: 1) the inflexible pegs of undervalued currencies; 2) recent attempts by floating exchange-rate countries to resist currency appreciation; 3) quantitative easing. Europe should primarily be concerned about the first issue, which relates to the renewed debate about the international monetary system. The attempts of floating exchange-rate countries to resist currency appreciation are generally justified while China retains a peg. Quantitative easing cannot be deemed a beggar-thy-neighbour policy as long as the Feds policy is geared towards price stability. Current US inflationary expectations are at historically low levels. Central banks should come to an agreement about the definition of price stability at a time of deflationary pressures. The euros exchange rate has not been greatly impacted by the recent currency war; the euro continues to be overvalued, but less than before.
Resumo:
A cikk a hazai elltsi lncok alapegysgnek, az zleti kapcsolatoknak a begyazottsgt vizsglja. A vllalatok kztti zleti kapcsolatok sokfle jellemzje kzl kiemelt jelentsg azok stabilitsa, ami kzvetlenl fgg a kapcsolatok begyazottsgnak foktl. Az zleti kapcsolat begyazottsgra hatst gyakorol az egyttmkd felek kztti ktelkek hrom tpusa (Hkansson Snehota [szerk.], 1995): a megrendel-beszllt kztti (i) tevkenysg, (ii) szocilis s (iii) erforrs-ktelkek erssge, intenzitsa. A szerzk kutatsnak hipotzise szerint e ktelkek erssgt, s ezen keresztl a kapcsolat begyazottsgnak mrtkt befolysolja az, hogy milyen a felek kztti csere trgyt kpez termk- s szolgltatscsomag komplexitsa. Tanulmnyuk a Budapesti Corvinus Egyetem Versenykpessg Kutat Kzpontjnak Kis- s kzpvllalatok beszllti pozcii cm kutatsi programja (20072008) keretben kszlt krdves felmrs kiemelt eredmnyeit mutatja be. Az elemzs magban foglalja az zleti kapcsolatok szmra relevns klnbz ktelktpusok jellemzinek bemutatst, a csere trgyt meghatroz vevi elvrscsomagok, illetve azok lekpezdseknt kialakul tipikus termk- s szolgltatscsomagok ismertetst, vgl annak bemutatst, hogy azok mikppen hatnak az zleti kapcsolatok begyazottsgra. ________________ The focal question of this research is how heavy Hungarian business relationships are, and what specific characteristics this relationships have. Business relationship heaviness is one of the most important relationship features because substantially influences the stability of the relationship itself. The authors argue that the level of buyer-supplier relationship heaviness is determined by activity ties, social bonds and resource links (Hkansson Snehota ed., 1995) and influenced by the complexity of the exchange object relevant for a specific relationship. The paper presents the results of an online survey carried out among Hungarian companies at the Competitive Research Centre of the Corvinus University of Budapest. The authors analysis examines the effect of the exchanged product and service package on relational ties and relationship heaviness.
Resumo:
Tanulmnyunk clja a versenykpessg kzssgi begyazottsgnak elemzshez alkalmas elemzsi keretek bemutatsa s a versenykpessg fogalmnak elemzse a fogalom intzmnyi, normatv tartalma szempontjbl. Clunk a kzssgi versenykpessg fogalmnak s az ezt elemezni kpes megkzelts kidolgozsa. A feladat ketts: 1. A versenykpessg rtelmezse a dntsek kzssgi keretei szempontjbl 2. A kzssgi keretek versenykpessgre gyakorolt hatsnak elemzse Ennek rdekben a tanulmny els fejezetben az egyni dntst meghatroz tnyezket s az egyni dntsek jvbeli interakcik krnyezetre gyakorolt hatst elemz keretet vzoljuk fel. Megkzeltsnk szerint az egyni dntst ngy tnyez hatrozza meg. a kzssgi krnyezet, a termszeti krnyezet, s szemlyes jellemzk s az interakcis partnerek. Az ez alapjn szlet dntsek formljk a jvbeli dntsi krnyezetet. A dntsek hatsnak elemzshez a krnyezetre gyakorolt hatsok rtkelst orientl fogalomra van szksg. Elemzsnk esetben ez a fogalom az rtkteremts, amit a kvetkezkpp hatrozunk meg: az rtkteremt tevkenysgek sorn valaki arra trekszik, hogy sajt szemlyes cljait a msokkal val klcsnsen elnys egyttmkdsek lehetsgeinek bvtsvel, hozamainak nvelsvel szolglja. A msodik fejezetben az egyni dntsek kzssgi kereteit s az egyni dntsek kzssgre gyakorolt hatst elemezzk rszletesen. A formlis s informlis intzmnyek vilgt, a kzssgi magatartsokat szablyoz normk s konvencik rendszert a kvetkez t a valsgban gyakran kevered - alapelemre bontjuk rtkrend, konvenci, kzssgi szably, hivatalos elrs, egynek kztti megllapods. Ezek kzl a magnszereplk egyttmkdsnek az rintett szereplk ltal mdosthat intzmnyi elemeinek (konvenci, megllapods) alkalmazkodsa a leggyorsabb, a kzssg egszt irnyt formlis intzmnyek a status quo irnti elfogultsguk miatt lomhbbak, mg a kzssg lett informlisan befolysol normk a legstabilabb intzmnyi elemek. A kzssgek vltozsa ltalban lass, legtbbszr nem szndkolt hatsok kvetkezmnye. Mindezek mellett a kzssgi intzmnyek tudatos alaktsban komoly szerepe van (1) a konvencikat megjt intzmnyi innovtoroknak, (2) a szerzdses formulkon mdost vllalkozknak s (3) a hivatalos elrsok formlsba bekapcsold politikai szereplknek politikai vllalkozknt, tisztviselknt, vagy kzleti rsztvevknt. A harmadik fejezetben a versenykpessg fogalmt elemezzk, s ez alapjn hatrozzuk meg a kzssgi versenykpessg fogalmt. Megvizsgljuk, milyen feltevsekkel l a fogalom a kzssgi krnyezettel kapcsolatban, illetve milyen normatv elemei vannak a defincinak. A vizsglathoz a versenykpessg fogalmnak egy lecsupasztott vltozatt hasznltuk. E szerint a versenykpessg valaki kpessge rtkteremt mdon bekapcsoldni a gazdasgi munkamegosztsba gy, hogy tevkenysge relatv hozama nem cskken. Az elemzs alapjn a versenykpessg a kzssgi krnyezet kvetkez ht elemre pl: 1. A kzssg tagjainak s a tagsg tartalmnak meghatrozottsga; 2. a potencilis egyttmkd felek kzs mltja, jvje, konvenci- s normarendszere; 3. A gazdasgi egyttmkds intzmnyeinek (csere, vllalkozs, tulajdon, szerzds) mkdkpessge; 4. Az rtkteremts normatv koncepcija s az arra pl rszleteiben meghatrozott, s rszleteiben is kzssgi legitimcival br szablyrendszer; 5. Az innovcit tmogat s a kellen rugalmas rtkrend s kzssgi szablyok. 6. A gazdasgi munkamegoszts ignyeihez rszleteiben s vltozsval is igazod konvencik, hivatalos elrsok s szerzdsek; 7. A kzssgi krnyezet tudatos alaktsval foglalkoz szereplk (kzssgi innovtorok, vllalkozk s politikai szereplk) motivcija s lehetsge a hozamok relatv szintjnek tartst tmogat intzmnyi krnyezet karbantartsban. A versenykpessg fogalmnak intzmnyi elemzse rmutat, hogy a fogalom gazdag rtktartalommal s hatrozott kzssgi intzmnyrendszer-kppel rendelkezik. A kzssgi versenykpessg ez alapjn a versenykpessg fogalmba kdolt kzssgi krnyezetknt hatrozhat meg. A kutats kvetkez lpse a kzssgi versenykpessg meghatrozsa, az azt befolysol mechanizmusok feltrsa s javtst tmogat elemzsi eszkzk, gyakorlati segdletek kidolgozsa. Ezen feladatok elksztse rdekben a tanulmny mellkletben kt trtnelmi esettanulmnyt mutatunk be, rviden ttekintjk a tma szempontjbl relevns irodalom fbb eredmnyeit s bemutatunk egy praktikus alkalmazsra sznt normatv elemzsi eszkzt, mellyel az elemezhet, hogy az llami lpsek mennyire btortjk az rtkteremt vllalkozst. _________ This paper (1) introduces an analytical framework to study the impact of the community on competitiveness and (2) analyses the institutional and normative content in the concept of competitiveness. The goal is to elaborate an approach that supports the definition and analysis of the competiveness of community. This task has two main parts: 1. interpretation of competiveness from social choice perspective 2. assessing the impact of social settings on the competiveness of a community The first chapter of the study draws up an analytical framework to study the social factors of individual decisions and their impact on the environment of future interactions. We focus on four main factors that shape setting of future interactions: social environment, natural environment, personal characteristics and partners in interactions. We use the concept of value creation to assess the impact of individual decisions on these factors. The second chapter discusses the social factors of individual decisions and the impact of individual decisions on the community. Institutions are conceptualized as value systems, conventions, community rules, official rules and contracts in the study. The conventions and contracts can accommodate to the changes of environment more smoothly, formal institutions are less flexible due to their bias toward status quo. Informal rules and value systems resists change more frequently. The formation of social environment is usually slow and based on unintended effects. Altogether (1) innovators who revise social conventions, (2) entrepreneurs who reshape contracts and (4) political entrepreneurs who formulate formal rules have influential roles on the institutional setting. The third chapter discusses the social assumptions included into the definition of competitiveness and we give a definition for the competiveness of communities. A simplified definition of competitiveness is used for this analysis: competiveness is someones ability and motivation to participate in the economic division of labor in a way that is based on value creation and maintains the relative return of activities. Our analysis reveals that competitiveness assumes the following features of the community: 1. Defined membership of community: who are the members and what does membership mean. 2. Common past, future, convention and norm system of the potential participants of interactions 3. Functionality of institutions that facilitate division of labor (exchange, entrepreneurship, property, contract) 4. Existing normative concept on value creation and social accepted rules that govern interactions 5. Value system and rules that promote innovation 6. Conventions, official norms and contracts that fits to economic division of labor in a detailed and dynamic way 7. Motivation and potential of actors who shape social environment consciously to maintain institutions in order to sustain the relative return of economic activities This analysis shows that the concept of competitiveness assumes well established values and detailed expectations on institutional settings. Followingly, competiveness of community can be defined with these criteria of social environment. Two historical case studies and the draft of a policy oriented toolkit demonstrate the applicability of the introduced approach in the appendix. The core findings of the literature are also reviewed there.
Resumo:
A tanulmnyban a Pnzgyminisztrium gazdasgpolitikai fosztlya s az MTA Kzgazdasgtudomnyi Intzete ltal kifejlesztett kzpmret negyedves makrogazdasgi modell segtsgvel elemezzk a magyar gazdasg legfontosabb mechanizmusait. A modellezs sorn kvetett alapelvek s a modell blokkjainak bemutatsa utn egy forgatknyv-elemzs keretben vizsgljuk a makrogazdasgi s kltsgvetsi folyamatokat befolysol fbb faktorok hatsait. A - tgan rtelmezett - "bizonytalansgi tnyezket" hrom csoportba soroljuk: megklnbztetjk a kls krnyezet (pldul rfolyam) vltozst, a gazdasgi szereplk viselkedsben rejl bizonytalansgokat (pldul a brigazods sebessgnek vagy a fogyasztssimts mrtknek bizonytalansgt), valamint a gazdasgpolitikai lpseket (pldul llami brek emelst). Megmutatjuk, hogy e kockzatok makrokvetkezmnyei nem fggetlenek egymstl, pldul egy rfolyamvltozs hatst befolysolja a brigazods sebessge. ______ This paper analyses the most important mechanisms of the Hungarian economy using a medium-sized quarterly macroeconomic model developed jointly by the Economic Policy Department of the Ministry of Finance and the Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. After introducing the fundamental principles of modelling and the building blocks of the model investigated, within a scenario analysis, the authors present the effects of the main factors behind the macroeconomic and budgetary processes. The sources of uncertainty - defined in a broad sense - are categorized in three groups: change in the external environment (e.g. the exchange rate), uncertainties in the behav-iour of economic agents (e.g. in speed of wage adjustment or extent of consumption smoothing), and economic policy decisions (e.g. the increase in public sector wages). The macroeconomic consequences of these uncertainties are shown not to be independent of each other. For instance, the effects of an exchange rate shock are influenced by the speed of wage adjustment.
Resumo:
The global crisis of 2008 caused both liquidity shortage and increasing insolvency in the banking system. The study focuses on credit default contagion in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region, which originated in bank runs generated by non-performing loans granted to non-financial clients. In terms of methodology, the paper relies on one hand on review of the literature, and on the other hand on a data survey with comparative and regression analysis. To uncover credit default contagion, the research focuses on the combined impact of foreign exchange rates and foreign private indebtedness.
Resumo:
The global crisis of 2008 caused both liquidity shortage and increasing insolvency in the banking system. The study focuses on credit default contagion in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region, which originated in bank runs generated by non-performing loans granted to non-financial clients. In terms of methodology, the paper relies on one hand on review of the literature, and on the other hand on a data survey with comparative and regression analysis. To uncover credit default contagion, the research focuses on the combined impact of foreign exchange rates and foreign private indebtedness.
