Theory and practice in the field of foresight

Purpose – The paper aims to explore the gap between theory and practice in foresight and to give some suggestions on how to reduce it. Design/methodology/approach – Analysis of practical foresight activities and suggestions are based on a literature review, the author's own research and practice in the field of foresight and futures studies, and her participation in the work of a European project (COST A22). Findings – Two different types of practical foresight activities have developed. One of them, the practice of foresight of critical futures studies (FCFS) is an application of a theory of futures studies. The other, termed here as praxis foresight (PF), has no theoretical basis and responds directly to practical needs. At present a gap can be perceived between theory and practice. PF distinguishes itself from the practice and theory of FCFS and narrows the construction space of futures. Neither FCFS nor PF deals with content issues of the outer world. Reducing the gap depends on renewal of joint discourses and research about experience of different practical foresight activities and manageability of complex dynamics in foresight. Production and feedback of self-reflective and reflective foresight knowledge could improve theory and practice. Originality/value – Contemporary practical foresight activities are analysed and suggestions to reduce the gap are developed in the context of the linkage between theory and practice. This paper is thought provoking for futurists, foresight managers and university researchers.

"Gene-fouled or gene-improved?" – Media framing of GM crops and food in Hungary

This paper presents results from a research which analyzed the reporting on genetically modified crops and food in the Hungarian tabloids and political papers with the highest circulation from 1 May 2007 to 31 October 2009. Both quantitative and qualitative media analysis was conducted. It was found that in contrast to some Western countries the issue had low salience in the investigated period; it featured especially marginally in the tabloids. Two distinct valenced frames could be differentiated: a dominant ANTI-GM (Threat) frame – which was particularly frequent compared to what has been found for some other countries, and a minority PRO-GM (Advancement and Benefits) frame. Despite a range of similarities with what had been reported by previous research from some other countries, argumentation on the GMO topic in the Hungarian press had several distinct characteristics, one of which was the relative prominence of economic arguments against the technology.

Improved stochastic optimization of railway timetables

We present a general model to find the best allocation of a limited amount of supplements (extra minutes added to a timetable in order to reduce delays) on a set of interfering railway lines. By the best allocation, we mean the solution under which the weighted sum of expected delays is minimal. Our aim is to finely adjust an already existing and well-functioning timetable. We model this inherently stochastic optimization problem by using two-stage recourse models from stochastic programming, building upon earlier research from the literature. We present an improved formulation, allowing for an efficient solution using a standard algorithm for recourse models. We show that our model may be solved using any of the following theoretical frameworks: linear programming, stochastic programming and convex non-linear programming, and present a comparison of these approaches based on a real-life case study. Finally, we introduce stochastic dependency into the model, and present a statistical technique to estimate the model parameters from empirical data.