Chaos Theory and Socio-Economic Renewal in Hungary

We utilised methods of chaos theory that were originally used in a 1990’s study to analyse the behaviour of various Hungarian socio-economic macro indicators, both historically and their expected behaviour in the future. In this study, we present the method adapted to PC and the behaviour of the selected macro indicators. We characterize the pathways our society and economy has experienced and where they are heading to into the future by the means of these indicators. Comparing the present results of analysis with the results twenty years ago (when today’s present was the future) we came to the conclusion that most of the indicators became less chaotic, thus the socio-economic courses were getting more stable over the past two decades. We conclude that the opportunity to change them is slowly diminishing, it will be more and more difficult to renew the Hungarian socio-economic indicators, and to turn the processes to more desirable courses. Recommendations for change interventions are then provided.

Theory and practice in the field of foresight

Purpose – The paper aims to explore the gap between theory and practice in foresight and to give some suggestions on how to reduce it. Design/methodology/approach – Analysis of practical foresight activities and suggestions are based on a literature review, the author's own research and practice in the field of foresight and futures studies, and her participation in the work of a European project (COST A22). Findings – Two different types of practical foresight activities have developed. One of them, the practice of foresight of critical futures studies (FCFS) is an application of a theory of futures studies. The other, termed here as praxis foresight (PF), has no theoretical basis and responds directly to practical needs. At present a gap can be perceived between theory and practice. PF distinguishes itself from the practice and theory of FCFS and narrows the construction space of futures. Neither FCFS nor PF deals with content issues of the outer world. Reducing the gap depends on renewal of joint discourses and research about experience of different practical foresight activities and manageability of complex dynamics in foresight. Production and feedback of self-reflective and reflective foresight knowledge could improve theory and practice. Originality/value – Contemporary practical foresight activities are analysed and suggestions to reduce the gap are developed in the context of the linkage between theory and practice. This paper is thought provoking for futurists, foresight managers and university researchers.