A population dynamical model of Operophtera brumata, L. extended by climatic factors

Setting out from the database of Operophtera brumata, L. in between 1973 and 2000 due to the Light Trap Network in Hungary, we introduce a simple theta-logistic population dynamical model based on endogenous and exogenous factors, only. We create an indicator set from which we can choose some elements with which we can improve the fitting results the most effectively. Than we extend the basic simple model with additive climatic factors. The parameter optimization is based on the minimized root mean square error. The best model is chosen according to the Akaike Information Criterion. Finally we run the calibrated extended model with daily outputs of the regional climate model RegCM3.1, regarding 1961-1990 as reference period and 2021-2050 with 2071-2100 as future predictions. The results of the three time intervals are fitted with Beta distributions and compared statistically. The expected changes are discussed.

The effect of climate change on the potential distribution of the European Phlebotomus species and the parasite Leishmania infantum in 2011-2070. A climate envelope modeling approach

Aims: In the Mediterranean areas of Europe, leishmanisasis is one of the most emerging vector-borne diseases. Members of genus Phlebotomus are the primary vectors of the genus Leishmania. To track the human health effect of climate change it is a very important interdisciplinary question to study whether the climatic requirements and geographical distribution of the vectors of human pathogen organisms correlate with each other. Our study intended to explore the potential effects of ongoing climate change, in particular through a potential upward altitudinal and latitudinal shift of the distribution of the parasite Leishmania infantum, its vectors Phlebotomus ariasi, P. neglectus, P. perfiliewi, P. perniciosus, and P. tobbi, and some other sandfly species: P. papatasi, P. sergenti, and P. similis. Methods: By using a climate envelope modelling (CEM) method we modelled the current and future (2011-2070) potential distribution of 8 European sandfly species and L. infantum based on the current distribution using the REMO regional climate model. Results: We found that by the end of the 2060’s most parts of Western Europe can be colonized by sandfly species, mostly by P. ariasi and P. pernicosus. P. ariasi showed the greatest potential northward expansion. For all the studied vectors of L. infantum the entire Mediterranean Basin and South-Eastern Europe seemed to be suitable. L. infantum can affect the Eastern Mediterranean, without notable northward expansion. Our model resulted 1 to 2 months prolongation of the potentially active period of P. neglectus P. papatasi and P. perniciosus for the 2060’s in Southern Hungary. Conclusion: Our findings confirm the concerns that leishmanisais can become a real hazard for the major part of the European population to the end of the 21th century and the Carpathian Basin is a particularly vulnerable area.

Európai lepkeszúnyog fajok potenciális elterjedése a 21. században

Leishmaniasis is a typical vectorial disease transmitted by Psycodidae vectors (Lutzomyans, Phlebotomus species). The worldwide observed 1,5-2 million new cases and 60,000 death caused by Leishmania parasites per year make leishmaniasis is one of the most important vectorial disease in the tropicals and warm temperate areas of the World. In the human environment dogs and cats are the most important hosts of the different leishmania agents. The different leishmania species cause symptomatically cutan or visceral disease forms, but many other type of the disease has recognised. Phlebotomus species are sensitive to climatic patterns, they require hight relative air humidity, mild winters and long and warm vegetation period, but the environmental requirements of the species naturally is not the same. Due to climate change in the near future the climate of Western and Central Europe could allow the colonisation of these highly populated areas with also the vectors and the parasites. Our aim was to analyse the environmental patterns of the current distribution area of 8 important sand flies (P. ariasi, P. perniciosus, P. perfiliewi, P. papatasi, P. tobbi, P. neglectus, P. similis and P. sergenti) using the 1960-1990 period’s climate as reference. Using climate envelope modeling we determined these climatic characters and using the REMO climate projection we created the recent and the near-future (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) potential distribution area of the sand flies. The current known area of many Phlebotomus species restricted either to the western or to the eastern Mediterranean Basin. We found that their climatic requirements are could not explain their segregation, it is maybe the consequence of their evolutionary history (geographical barriers and paleoclimatic history). By the end of the 2060’s most parts of Western Europe can be colonized by sand flies, mostly by P. ariasi and P. pernicosus. P. ariasi showed the greatest potential northward expansion. Our model resulted 1 to 2 months prolongation of the potentially active period of P. neglectus P. papatasi and P. perniciosus for the 2070’s in Southern Hungary. As the climate becomes drier and warmer, sand flies will occupy more and more parts of Hungary. Our findings confirm the concerns that leishmanisais can become a real hazard for the major part of the European population to the end of the 21th century and the Carpathian Basin is a particularly vulnerable area.