Seasonal dynamic pattern analysis in service of climate change research. A methodical case-study - monitoring and simulation based on an aquatic insect community

Our aim was to approach an important and well-investigable phenomenon – connected to a relatively simple but real field situation – in such a way, that the results of field observations could be directly comparable with the predictions of a simulation model-system which uses a simple mathematical apparatus and to simultaneously gain such a hypothesis-system, which creates the theoretical opportunity for a later experimental series of studies. As a phenomenon of the study, we chose the seasonal coenological changes of aquatic and semiaquatic Heteroptera community. Based on the observed data, we developed such an ecological model-system, which is suitable for generating realistic patterns highly resembling to the observed temporal patterns, and by the help of which predictions can be given to alternative situations of climatic circumstances not experienced before (e.g. climate changes), and furthermore; which can simulate experimental circumstances. The stable coenological state-plane, which was constructed based on the principle of indirect ordination is suitable for unified handling of data series of monitoring and simulation, and also fits for their comparison. On the state-plane, such deviations of empirical and model-generated data can be observed and analysed, which could otherwise remain hidden.

Introduction to data analysis

With the latest development in computer science, multivariate data analysis methods became increasingly popular among economists. Pattern recognition in complex economic data and empirical model construction can be more straightforward with proper application of modern softwares. However, despite the appealing simplicity of some popular software packages, the interpretation of data analysis results requires strong theoretical knowledge. This book aims at combining the development of both theoretical and applicationrelated data analysis knowledge. The text is designed for advanced level studies and assumes acquaintance with elementary statistical terms. After a brief introduction to selected mathematical concepts, the highlighting of selected model features is followed by a practice-oriented introduction to the interpretation of SPSS1 outputs for the described data analysis methods. Learning of data analysis is usually time-consuming and requires efforts, but with tenacity the learning process can bring about a significant improvement of individual data analysis skills.