The factors affecting the international judgement of the Forint and Zloty in the light of the financial crisis of year 2008

The financial crisis of 2007-2009 has shaken both money and capital markets. Its consequences have not even left European markets untouched and divided spirits in the financial world. In some countries efforts by the monetary policy to protect the national currency throughout the crisis seemed to be ineffective. In the present paper we are investigating the effect of the most important macroeconomic and economic policy factors on the exchange rate of the forint and zloty in the last decade. For an analysis of exchange rates we are relying on some preceding research results based on equilibrium exchange rate theories.

Grounded theory, a kvalitatív kutatás klasszikus mérföldköve (Grounded theory, the classic milestone of qualitative research)

A grounded theory olyan kutatási módszer, ahol az elmélet az empirikus adatokból fejlődik ki és abban gyökerezik (Glaser - Strauss, 1967). Annak ellenére, hogy a módszer nemzetközileg rendkívül népszerű, a grounded theory nem igazán vert gyökeret a hazai menedzsment- és marketingkutatás talajában. A cikk célja a grounded theory kulcsfontosságú mozzanatainak bemutatása és a módszer népszerűsítése. / === / Grounded theory is a research method in which theory emerges from the data and is grounded in it (Glaser - Strauss, 1967). Despite the international popularity of the method, the grounded theory unfortunately hasn't taken roots in the Hungarian management and marketing research fields. The purpose of this article is to highlight some features and key points of the method and to popularize it among researchers.

The effect of climate change on the potential distribution of the European Phlebotomus species and the parasite Leishmania infantum in 2011-2070. A climate envelope modeling approach

Aims: In the Mediterranean areas of Europe, leishmanisasis is one of the most emerging vector-borne diseases. Members of genus Phlebotomus are the primary vectors of the genus Leishmania. To track the human health effect of climate change it is a very important interdisciplinary question to study whether the climatic requirements and geographical distribution of the vectors of human pathogen organisms correlate with each other. Our study intended to explore the potential effects of ongoing climate change, in particular through a potential upward altitudinal and latitudinal shift of the distribution of the parasite Leishmania infantum, its vectors Phlebotomus ariasi, P. neglectus, P. perfiliewi, P. perniciosus, and P. tobbi, and some other sandfly species: P. papatasi, P. sergenti, and P. similis. Methods: By using a climate envelope modelling (CEM) method we modelled the current and future (2011-2070) potential distribution of 8 European sandfly species and L. infantum based on the current distribution using the REMO regional climate model. Results: We found that by the end of the 2060’s most parts of Western Europe can be colonized by sandfly species, mostly by P. ariasi and P. pernicosus. P. ariasi showed the greatest potential northward expansion. For all the studied vectors of L. infantum the entire Mediterranean Basin and South-Eastern Europe seemed to be suitable. L. infantum can affect the Eastern Mediterranean, without notable northward expansion. Our model resulted 1 to 2 months prolongation of the potentially active period of P. neglectus P. papatasi and P. perniciosus for the 2060’s in Southern Hungary. Conclusion: Our findings confirm the concerns that leishmanisais can become a real hazard for the major part of the European population to the end of the 21th century and the Carpathian Basin is a particularly vulnerable area.

The importance of institutions in expansionary fiscal consolidations. A critical assessment of non-Keynesian effects

The short-term effects of fiscal consolidation have attracted an increasing attention from both the academia and policy makers in the recent years. Authors in the literature on non- Keynesian effects usually put the emphasis on the need for the devaluation of the national currency, the accommodating reaction of the monetary authority and the favourable international economic conditions as the necessary accompanying tools of fiscal consolidation, in order to realise short-term expansionary effects. Some also add the necessity of large-scale adjustment; while others support the view that a high and increasing debt ratio or increasing government spending, by triggering an unavoidable adjustment, is the key to experiencing short-term expansionary effects. The composition of adjustment also became a crucial explanation for non-Keynesian effects. However, as the following critical assessment of the literature on expansionary fiscal consolidations will reveal, institutional conditions, such as the importance of the depth of financial intermediation and the influencing role of labour market structure, can prove to be crucial in the occurrence of the desired expansionary short-term effects.

Natura 2000 erdők közgazdasági környezetének elemzése (Assessment of the economic environment of Natura 2000 forests)

Ebben a tanulmányban a Natura 2000 erdők közgazdasági kérdéseit jártuk körül az ökoszisztéma-szolgáltatások koncepciójának segítségével, nemzetközi és hazai szakirodalomra építve. Emellett a természetközeli erdőgazdálkodás fogalomkörét, s azon belül a folyamatos erdőborítást szolgáló erdőgazdálkodást vettük alapul. A következőkben néhány összegző megállapítást teszünk, és kijelölünk további kutatási irányokat. _____ This study has been prepared within the LIFEinFORESTS – Improved communication, cooperation and capacity building for preserving biodiversity in Natura 2000 forests (B2 action, LIFE13 INF/HU/001163) – project in the framework of LIFE+ Information and Communication under the contract signed with the Duna-Ipoly National Park Directorate. The main aim of the study is to summarize the international and Hungarian economic and environmental economic literature related to the Natura 2000 forests, and serve as a background study for the communication with and training of forest owners and users operating at Natura 2000 sites. The concept of ecosystem services (ESs) is used as an overall framework for the study. In our opinion it is able to show all the benefits provided by forests and can also help to reveal that the benefits of nature-oriented, continuous cover forest management (CCF) can exceed the benefits of traditional rotation forest management (RFM). The definition and the classification of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA, 2003, 2005) is used throughout the study, so provisioning, cultural, regulating and supporting services are distinguished.