Adatbányászati alkalmazások lehetőségei egy multinacionális vállalat magyarországi leányvállalatának információs rendszerében (Opportunities of datamining applications in the information system of a multinational company’s Hungarian subsidiary)

A tanulmány Magyarország egyik legnagyobb foglalkoztatójának megrendelésére készült abból a célból, hogy milyen megoldásokkal lehetne a vállalati működést hatékonyabbá tenni. Ennek keretében a szerzők megvizsgálták, hol tart ma a HR adatbányászati kutatás a világban. Milyen eszközök állnak rendelkezésre ahhoz, hogy a munkavállalói elmenetelt előre jelezzék, illetve figyeljék, valamint milyen lehetőség van a hálózati kutatások felhasználására a biztonság területén. Szerencsés, hogy a vállalkozói kérdések és erőforrások találkozhattak a kutatói szféra aktuális kutatási területeivel. A tanulmány szerzői úgy gondolják, hogy a cikkben megfogalmazott állítások, következtetések, eredmények a jövőben hasznosíthatók lesznek a vállalat és más cégek számára is. _____ The authors were pleased to take part in this research project initiated by one of Hungary’s largest employer. The goal of the project was to work out BI solutions to improve upon their business process. In the framework of the project first the authors made a survey on the current trends in the world of HR datamining. They reviewed the available tools for the prediction of employee promotion and investigated the question on how to utilize results achieved in social network analysis in the field of enterprise security. When real business problems and resources meet the mainstream research of the scientific community it is always a fortunate and it is rather fruitful. The authors are certain that the results published in this document will be beneficial for Foxconn in the near future. Of course, they are not done. There are continually new research perspectives opening up and huge amount of information is accumulating in the enterprises just waiting for getting discovered and analysed. Also the environment in which an enterprise operates is dynamically changing and thus the company faces new challenges and new type of business problems arise. The authors are in the hope that their research experience will help decision makers also in the future to solve real world business problems.

The issue of macroeconomic closure revisited and extended

Léon Walras (1874) already had realized that his neo-classical general equilibrium model could not accommodate autonomous investment. Sen analysed the same issue in a simple, one-sector macroeconomic model of a closed economy. He showed that fixing investment in the model, built strictly on neo-classical assumptions, would make the system overdetermined, thus, one should loosen some neo-classical condition of competitive equilibrium. He analysed three not neo-classical “closure options”, which could make the model well determined in the case of fixed investment. Others later extended his list and it showed that the closure dilemma arises in the more complex computable general equilibrium (CGE) models as well, as does the choice of adjustment mechanism assumed to bring about equilibrium at the macro level. By means of numerical models, it was also illustrated that the adopted closure rule can significantly affect the results of policy simulations based on a CGE model. Despite these warnings, the issue of macro closure is often neglected in policy simulations. It is, therefore, worth revisiting the issue and demonstrating by further examples its importance, as well as pointing out that the closure problem in the CGE models extends well beyond the problem of how to incorporate autonomous investment into a CGE model. Several closure rules are discussed in this paper and their diverse outcomes are illustrated by numerical models calibrated on statistical data. First, the analyses is done in a one-sector model, similar to Sen’s, but extended into a model of an open economy. Next, the same analyses are repeated using a fully-fledged multisectoral CGE model, calibrated on the same statistical data. Comparing the results obtained by the two models it is shown that although, using the same closure option, they generate quite similar results in terms of the direction and – to a somewhat lesser extent – of the magnitude of change in the main macro variables, the predictions of the multi-sectoral CGE model are clearly more realistic and balanced.