The factors affecting the international judgement of the Forint and Zloty in the light of the financial crisis of year 2008

The financial crisis of 2007-2009 has shaken both money and capital markets. Its consequences have not even left European markets untouched and divided spirits in the financial world. In some countries efforts by the monetary policy to protect the national currency throughout the crisis seemed to be ineffective. In the present paper we are investigating the effect of the most important macroeconomic and economic policy factors on the exchange rate of the forint and zloty in the last decade. For an analysis of exchange rates we are relying on some preceding research results based on equilibrium exchange rate theories.

A számviteli érdekhordozói elméletek evolúciója és a szabályozás – klasszikus tézisek és új irányok a pénzügyi beszámolásban (Evolution of the financial accounting stakeholder theories and the regulation – classic theses and new ways in the financial report)

A modernkori számvitel egyik alapvető kérdése, hogy a pénzügyi beszámolás címzettjét – az érdekhordozókat – miként lehet azonosítani. Ez a törekvés már a klasszikus, azóta meghaladottá vált elméletekben is központi szerepet töltött be és modern, posztmodern elméletekben kulcsfontosságúvá vált. A tapasztalatok alapján az azonosított érdekhordozók köre módosult, bővült. Ennek a fejlődésnek a vizsgálata során a számvitel számos olyan ismérvét sikerült azonosítani, amely segítségével a vonatkozó szabályok tökéletesíthetők. Emellett az evolúció vizsgálata segítségével közvetlenül is megfigyelhetővé vált az, hogy a számvitelt extern módon szabályozó hatalom szükségessége milyen feltételek teljesítése mellett igazolható. A vizsgálat során azonosíthatóvá váltak olyan helyzetek, amikor a számviteli szabályozó és „kívülről irányított” pénzügyi beszámolás szuboptimális helyzethez vezet. A cikk az érdekhordozói elméletek fejlődését a klasszikus felfogásoktól indulva mutatja be. Feltárja, hogy a modern – jelenleg elfogadott – koalíciós vállalatfelfogás miben hozott újat, elsősorban miként hívta életre az extern szabályozót. _____ One of the key problems of the modern financial accounting is how to define the stakeholders. This problem was already a key issue in the already outdated classical stakeholder theories. Research and experience noted that the group of stakeholders has widened and has been modified. Through this evolution researchers identified many characteristics of financial reporting through which the regulation could have been improved. This advance pointed out which are the situations when the existence of an extern accounting regulator may be justified, since under given circumstances this existence led to suboptimal scenario. This paper deals with the stakeholder theories, starting with the classical ones. The article points out how did the currently accepted theory changed the assertions of the previous one and how was the external regulator created as an inevitable consequence. The paper also highlights the main issues raised by the post-modern theories; those, which try to fit the current questions into the current stakeholder models. The article also produces a Hungarian evidence for the previously mentioned suboptimal scenario, where the not tax-driven regulation proves to be suboptimal.

Effects of the current financial and economic crisis on the rural landscape as well as the agri-food sector in Europe and Central Asia

This paper reviews the expected effects of the current financial crisis and subsequent recession on the rural landscape, in particular the agri-food sector in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) on the basis of the structure of the rural economy and of different organisations and institutions. Empirical evidence suggests that the crisis has hit the ECA region the hardest. Agriculture contributes about 9% to gross domestic product (GDP) for the ECA region as a whole with 16% of the population being employed in the agricultural sector. As far as the impact of the financial crisis on the agri-food sector is concerned, there are a few interconnected issues: (1) reduction in income elastic food demand and commodity price decline, (2) loss of employment and earnings of rural people working in urban centres, implying also costly labour reallocation, (3) rising rural poverty originating mainly from lack of opportunities in the non-farm sector and a sizable decline of international remittances, (4) tightening of agricultural credit markets, and the (5) collapse of sectoral government support programs and social safety-net measures in many countries. The paper reveals how the crisis hit farming and broader agri-business differently in general and in the ECA sub-regions.

A válság mint negatív információ és bizonytalansági tényező. A válság hatása az egy részvényre jutó nyereség-előrejelzésekre (The financial crisis as negative information and a factor of uncertainty. Analysing the EPS forecasting error in Hungary and Austria)

A szerző a 2008-ban kezdődött gazdasági világválság hatását vizsgálja az egy részvényre jutó nyereség előrejelzésének hibájára. Számos publikáció bizonyította, hogy az elemzők a tényértékeknél szisztematikusan kedvezőbb tervértéket adnak meg az egy részvényre jutó előrejelzéseikben. Más vizsgálatok azt igazolták, hogy az egy részvényre jutó előrejelzési hiba bizonytalan környezetben növekszik, míg arra is számos bizonyítékot lehet találni, hogy a negatív hírek hatását az elemzők alulsúlyozzák. A gazdasági világválság miatt az elemzőknek számtalan negatív hírt kellett figyelembe venniük az előrejelzések készítésekor, továbbá a válság az egész gazdaságban jelentősen növelte a bizonytalanságot. A szerző azt vizsgálja, hogy miként hatott a gazdasági világválság az egy részvényre jutó nyereség- előrejelzés hibájára, megkülönböztetve azt az időszakot, amíg a válság negatív hír volt, attól, amikor már hatásaként jelentősen megnőtt a bizonytalanság. _____ The author investigated the impact of the financial crisis that started in 2008 on the forecasting error for earnings per share. There is plentiful evidence from the 1980s that analysts give systematically more favourable values in their earnings per share (EPS) forecasts than reality, i.e. they are generally optimistic. Other investigations have supported the idea that the EPS forecasting error is greater under uncertain environmental circumstances, while other researchers prove that the analysts under-react to the negative information in their forecasts. The financial crisis brought a myriad of negative information for analysts to consider in such forecasts, while also increasing the level of uncertainty for the entire economy. The article investigates the impact of the financial crisis on the EPS forecasting error, distinguishing the period when the crisis gave merely negative information, from the one when its effect of uncertainty was significantly increased over the entire economy.

Economics of the new member states: A post-crisis perspective

This essay addresses four major issues confronting the Central and Eastern European new members of the European Union in the decade to come. First: what to think of the financial meltdown of 2008-2009. Second, what have they learned from the tremors, having shaken the previous star performers of the EU? Third we ask if we can expect a return to ‘normalcy' as forecast by most models of financial rating agencies and international financial institutions? Fourth the question is raised what did the new members benefit from their EU membership? Some conclusions on the future of EU reforms and policies close the overview.

Out of credit: Evaluating the impact of the EU structural funds on Hungarian small business growth and access to finance

Totaling EUR 29 billion, Hungary is in the midst of implementing its largest economic development program in its young democratic history. At the center of the European Union led development program is an effort to revitalize and reequip Hungary’s languishing small and medium sized enterprises (SME), long the country's heart of employment. This paper examines the efficiency and impact of two Structural Fund's instruments to enhance SME development – ECOP 2.1.1 and JEREMIE. A survey of 1275 SME and interviews with dozens of top policy-makers paint a flawed development program in dire need of reform. Despite this, empirical analysis suggests JEREMIE funds may have dampened the effects of the financial crisis and are crucial for the continued liquidity of SME, who have been particularly hit hard by the world financial crisis.

The impact of the recession on health care expenditure — How does the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia compare to other OECD countries?

In the past few years, several papers have been published in the international literature on the impact of the economic crisis on health and health care. However, there is limited knowledge on this topic regarding the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. The main aims of this study are to examine the effect of the financial crisis on health care spending in four CEE countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) in comparison with the OECD countries. In this paper we also revised the literature for economic crisis related impact on health and health care system in these countries. OECD data released in 2012 were used to examine the differences in growth rates before and after the financial crisis. We examined the ratio of the average yearly growth rates of health expenditure expressed in USD (PPP) between 2008–2010 and 2000–2008. The classification of the OECD countries regarding “development” and “relative growth” resulted in four clusters. A large diversity of “relative growth” was observed across the countries in austerity conditions, however the changes significantly correlate with the average drop of GDP from 2008 to 2010. To conclude, it is difficult to capture visible evidence regarding the impact of the recession on the health and health care systems in the CEE countries due to the absence of the necessary data. For the same reason, governments in this region might have a limited capability to minimize the possible negative effects of the recession on health and health care systems.

The impact of the recession on health care expenditure — How does the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia compare to other OECD countries?

In the past few years, several papers have been published in the international literature on the impact of the economic crisis on health and health care. However, there is limited knowledge on this topic regarding the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. The main aims of this study are to examine the effect of the financial crisis on health care spending in four CEE countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) in comparison with the OECD countries. In this paper we also revised the literature for economic crisis related impact on health and health care system in these countries. OECD data released in 2012 were used to examine the differences in growth rates before and after the financial crisis. We examined the ratio of the average yearly growth rates of health expenditure expressed in USD (PPP) between 2008–2010 and 2000–2008. The classification of the OECD countries regarding “development” and “relative growth” resulted in four clusters. A large diversity of “relative growth” was observed across the countries in austerity conditions, however the changes significantly correlate with the average drop of GDP from 2008 to 2010. To conclude, it is difficult to capture visible evidence regarding the impact of the recession on the health and health care systems in the CEE countries due to the absence of the necessary data. For the same reason, governments in this region might have a limited capability to minimize the possible negative effects of the recession on health and health care systems.