Exchange Rate Policy and Economic Growth after the Financial Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe

In a paper on the effects of the global financial crisis in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), the author reacts to a paper of Åslund (2011) published in the same issue of Eurasian Geography and Economics on the influence of exchange rate policies on the region’s recovery. The author argues that post-crisis corrections in current account deficits in CEE countries do not in themselves signal a return to steady economic growth. Disagreeing with Åslund over the role of loose monetary policy in fostering the region’s economic problems, he outlines a number of competitiveness problems that remain to be addressed in the 10 new EU member states of CEE, along with improvements in framework conditions supporting future macroeconomic growth.

A jelzálogpiaci válság és a Közép-Kelet-Európában aktív nagybankok részvényárfolyama (The impact of the subprime crisis on the banks being active in Central and Eastern Europe)

Tanulmányunkban azt vizsgáljuk, hogy a jelzálogpiaci válsághoz köthető hírek milyen hatással vannak a Közép-Kelet-Európában aktív nagybankokra. A vizsgálathoz tíz Közép-Kelet-Európában aktív, tőzsdei nagybankot választottunk ki, amelyek közül hat nyugat-európai, míg négy közép-kelet-európai székhelyű bank volt. A tíz pénzintézettel kapcsolatosan 128 hírt gyűjtöttünk össze a 2007. június 1. és 2009. december 31. közötti időszakból. A híreket öt kategóriába csoportosítottuk, és az egyes kategóriáknak a részvényárfolyamokra gyakorolt, rövid távú hatását külön vizsgáltuk. Számításaink alapján a jelzálogpiaci válság során a befektetők pozitívan fogadták az állami feltőkésítéssel kapcsolatos bejelentéseket és a kielégítő védelmet nyújtó, átfogó kormányzati bankmentő csomagokat. A veszteségekkel, a leminősítéssel és az ECB intézkedéseivel kapcsolatos hírek esetén rövid távon nem tudtunk szignifikáns hatást kimutatni. A kutatás során a hírek számosságában igen, de a hírek által kiváltott hatás nagyságrendjében nem észleltünk jelentős különbséget a nyugat-európai és a középkelet- európai bankok között. ______ The research measures the impact of the subprime crisis on the shareholders of the banks being active in Central and Eastern Europe. The analysis focuses on the ten largest banks of the region measured by the asset size. The authors address the question whether the crisis affected more signifi cantly the large banks headquartered in Western Europe or the banks domiciled in Central and Eastern Europe. With the aim of capturing the short-term impact of various news on the shareholders of the banks, the popular event-study methodology with a one-day event window is employed. Within the period of 1 June 2007 and 31 December 2009, altogether 128 news were collected and grouped into fi ve categories (downgrades, loss, capital strengthening, governmental rescue packages, interventions of the ECB). Among others, the authors found empirical evidence that the shareholders appreciated the interventions of the governments: their capital injections resulted in signifi cant positive abnormal returns. Governmental rescue packages also resulted in signifi cant abnormal returns in the share price, however, the sign of the returns was unambiguous. No empirical evidence was found that in the short run the news in connection with loss announcements, downgrades and ECB interventions resulted in signifi cant abnormal returns. We concluded that although Western European banks and banks domiciled in Central and Eastern Europe differed in the number of news announced, the crisis affected the banks in both regions in a similar manner.

“An Ebbing Tide Lowers all Boats” How the great recession of 2008 has affected men and women in Central and Eastern Europe

In this paper we explore the impact of the economic recession of 2008 on gender inequality in the labor force in Central and Eastern European countries. We argue that job and occupational segregation protected women’s employment more than men's in the CEE region as well, but unlike in more developed capitalist economies, women’s level of labor force participation declined and their rates of poverty increased during the crisis years. We also explore gender differences in opinions on the impact of the recession on people’s job satisfaction. For our analysis we use published data from EUROSTAT and our own calculations from EU SILC and ESS 2010.

Measuring Benefits of Technology Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment in Central and Eastern Europe

In this paper, we construct a composite indicator to estimate the potential of four Central and Eastern European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) to benefit from productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) in the manufacturing sector. Such transfers of technology are one of the main benefits of FDI for the host country, and should also be one of the main determinants of FDI incentives offered to investing multinationals by governments, but they are difficult to assess ex ante. For our composite index, we use six components to proxy the main channels and determinants of these spillovers. We have tried several weighting and aggregation methods, and we consider our results robust. According to the analysis of our results, between 2003 and 2007 all four countries were able to increase their potential to benefit from such spillovers, although there are large differences between them. The Czech Republic clearly has the most potential to benefit from productivity spillovers, while Poland has the least. The relative positions of Hungary and Slovakia depend to some extent on the exact weighting and aggregation method of the individual components of the index, but the differences are not large. These conclusions have important implications both for the investment strategies of multinationals and government FDI policies.

Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment in Central and Eastern Europe. An index for measuring a country’s potential to benefit from technology spillovers

In the paper, we construct a composite indicator to estimate the potential of four Central and Eastern European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) to benefit from productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) in the manufacturing sector. Such transfers of technology are one of the main benefits of FDI for the host country, and should also be one of the main determinants of FDI incentives offered to investing multinationals by governments, but they are difficult to assess ex ante. For our composite index, we use six components to proxy the main channels and determinants of these spillovers. We have tried several weighting and aggregation methods, and we consider our results robust. According to the analysis of our results, between 2003 and 2007 all four countries were able to increase their potential to benefit from such spillovers, although there are large differences between them. The Czech Republic clearly has the most potential to benefit from productivity spillovers, while Poland has the least. The relative positions of Hungary and Slovakia depend to some extent on the exact weighting and aggregation method of the individual components of the index, but the differences are not large. These conclusions have important implication both the investment strategies of multinationals and government FDI policies.

Social change in Central and Eastern Europe: General trends and national patterns

The paper addresses five issue areas. First it describes the plurality of trajectories in central and eastern European transformations, offering a broad typology. Then it addresses the drift between acceptance of democracy and the market, owing to growing inequalities. Third, problems of poverty and exclusion are addressed. Fourth, it is addressed if any known model of redistribution emerged in the post-transition economies. Fifth, consequences of the populist turn in European policies are being analyzed. Influences of the EU practices will be dealt with and some preliminary conclusions drawn. These suggest a strong intertwining between social and economic performance that limit theoretically conceivable – neoliberal, social democratic, postmodern or conservative - policy choices.

Innovation Management in Central and Eastern Europe: Technology Perspectives and EU Policy Implications

The purpose of this study is to investigate empirically the role of innovation activity in Central and Eastern Europea (CEE). We also identified those internal and external factors, which might cause improvements in innovation performance of CEE companies. Our main focus was on technology-based innovations within the healthcare industry. We applied qualitative research methods. Our findings demonstrate that CEE companies within the healthcare industry have significant contribution to European Union’s innovation performance. We found that key success factors of these organizations are based on four elements: knowledge management, access to financial resources, managing formal and informal networks, as well as achieving synergies between technological and non-technological innovations.

Knowledge and innovation as value drivers in professional services firms: an empirical research in Central and Eastern Europe

The purpose of this study was to investigate empirically the role of knowledge and innovation within Central and Eastern Europe’s changing economy. We applied qualitative research methods, and focused only on professional services firms within the region. The connection between knowledge and innovation as well as knowledge and competitiveness was analyzed by top managers and senior industry experts. Our findings revealed that knowledge might be a real value driver for professional services firms. These companies can significantly contribute to the development of modern economies through the dissemination of their internal best practices in knowledge management. We found three factors that might influence the effectiveness of knowledge management. These three factors are the involvement of international knowledge networks, the investments in human capital, and focus on critical resources. These issues proved to be essential to maximize the potential of knowledge and to leverage this into increased business performance.

Supply chain position and servitization efforts of companies in Eastern and Western Europe

Our paper investigates the supply chain position of manufacturing companies in Europe, and the relation of this position to the extent and kind of services these companies provide. Our research builds on analyzing differences between Western and Eastern European companies. For the empirical research the database from the fifth round of the International Manufacturing Strategy Survey is used which covers 445 manufacturing companies from 13 European countries. Based on the connection between supply chain position and the extent and type of services offered dominant business models are identified both in Eastern and Western Europe.

Gender, Work and Employment in Ten Candidate Countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Final Report. Country: Hungary

The Hungarian media shows very contradictory pictures of women today: Successful career women enjoying material well-being is one picture, while the careful mother not working outside the home, keeping together the family is another one. Between these two contradictory poles there are almost no other female actors in the media. Life produces something different. In spite of the fact that there was a big loss of jobs in 1990s, and women’s activity rate decreased while the unemployment rate increased compared to before the 1990s, woman with duel roles are still accepted and common. The first female task is looking after the family and the second one is working outside the home and earning money. In many cases there is a third role: studying in distant or evening courses. In the next chapters we go deeper into this topic. We analyse the different aspects of female labour market positions, and show some relevant characteristics of governmental parental benefits and childcare support, and examine how the new pension system effects women. We also have a quick look at trade unions and show their lack of activity around gender issues. In the labour market analysis of the position of women we use labour force surveys, institution-based labour statistics, and unemployment registers. The Appendix 1 contains short descriptions of these data sources.

Aid Allocation of the Emerging Central and Eastern European Donors

The paper examines the main characteristics of the (re)emerging foreign aid policies of the Visegrád countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia), concentrating on the allocation of their aid resources. We adopt an econometric approach, similar to the ones used in the literature for analyzing the aid allocation of the OECD DAC donors. Using this approach, we examine the various factors that influence aid allocation of the Visegrád countries, using data for the years between 2001 and 2008. Our most important conclusion is that the amount of aid a partner county gets from the four emerging donors is not influenced by the level of poverty or the previous performance (measured by the level of economic growth or the quality of institutions) of the recipients. The main determining factor seems to be geographic proximity, as countries in the Western-Balkans and the Post-Soviet region receive much more aid from the Visegrád countries than other recipients. Historical ties (pre-1989 development relations) and international obligations in the case of Afghanistan and Iraq are also found to be significant explanatory factors. This allocation is in line with the foreign political and economic interests of these new donors. While there are clear similarities between the four donors, the paper also identifies some individual country characteristics.

Aid Allocation of the Emerging Central and Eastern European Donors

The paper examines the main characteristics of the (re)emerging foreign aid policies of the Visegrád countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia), concentrating on the allocation of their aid resources. We adopt an econometric approach, similar to the ones used in the literature for analyzing the aid allocation of the OECD DAC donors. Using this approach, we examine the various factors that influence aid allocation of the Visegrád countries, using data for the years between 2001 and 2008. Our most important conclusion is that the amount of aid a partner county gets from the four emerging donors is not influenced by the level of poverty or the previous performance (measured by the level of economic growth or the quality of institutions) of the recipients. The main determining factor seems to be geographic proximity, as countries in the Western-Balkans and the Post-Soviet region receive much more aid from the Visegrád countries than other recipients. Historical ties (pre-1989 development relations) and international obligations in the case of Afghanistan and Iraq are also found to be significant explanatory factors. This allocation is in line with the foreign political and economic interests of these new donors. While there are clear similarities between the four donors, the paper also identifies some individual country characteristics.

In Search of Sovereignty: Central and Eastern Europe, 1956-1989

International theory is replete with contested concepts, none more than state sovereignty. Although embodied in the UN Charter, it came under continuous strain during the early Cold War, culminating in the crucial year of 1956. Subsequent Soviet ideologists sought to justify the invasion of Czechoslovakia as „limited sovereignty”, dubbed by US analysts the "Brezhnev Doctrine". A few Western scholars thought this ended with the "non-invasion" of Poland in 1980-1981, but Russian archives reveal that it was not annulled until spring 1989.

A szovjetológiától az új intézményi közgazdaságtanig - töprengések két évtized távlatából = From Sovietology to the new institutional economics - meditations from a distance of two decades

A következőkben arra teszünk kísérletet, hogy összegezzük a közép- és a kelet-európai rendszerváltozások és az ezt tanulmányozók fordulatos történetét az elmúlt két évtizedben. Bemutatjuk, hogy a közgazdaságtan egy kevéssé fejlett ága miképp szembesült a tudományág egésze szempontjából is talán legnehezebb értelmezési és alkalmazási kérdéseket fölvető történelmi folyamattal. Megpróbáljuk feloldani azt a rejtvényt, hogy a főáramú megközelítés megismerése és alkalmazása miért nem hozott átütő eredményt sem a térség gazdaságainak, sem magának a tudományszaknak. Megvizsgáljuk a fokozatosság és a reformok kritikus tömege viszonyát. Végül kísérletet teszünk arra, hogy e sajátos szakterület elemzéséből adódó, tartósnak bizonyuló tételeket beépítsük a fenntartható fejlődés szélesebben értelmezett, immár főáramú megközelítéseibe. ___________ The article attempts to give an account of the changes of system in Central and Eastern Europe and of those who studied them in the last two decades. It shows how a less devel-oped branch of economics faced a historical process that posed possibly the most difficult questions of interpretation and application for the whole discipline. An attempt is made to discover why recognition and application of the mainstream approach failed to bring resounding success for the economies of the region or for economics itself. The author examines the relation between continuity and the critical weight of reforms. Finally, an attempt is made to advance durable propositions based on analysis of this specific field through now mainstream approaches in terms of sustainable development.

Centre-periphery tensions regarding Central and Eastern Europe

Security issues have played an important role in widening the European Union with eight Central and Eastern European economies. The time since have proved these concerns to be correct. The present North-South tension within the Euro-zone highlights even more the West-East tensions inherent in the international relations since the Eastern enlargement. Various divisions – political and economic alike – have already been felt throughout the whole period of 2004-20122 (Balázs, J.1985, 1993, 1995, 1996). The worldwide economic crisis of 2008, however, has revealed even more the hidden tensions in these relations. The political events after the 2010 election in Hungary, those in Romania in 2012, the continuous anti-EU declarations of the Czech president present ample evidence to the fact: the enlargement has been based more on political wishes and will than on firm economic reasoning. The outcome is constant struggle between the parties to keep face and save the state of the European Union. Ongoing political and economic struggles around Greece, Portugal and Spain are other forms of fundamental problems within the European Union. It is worthwhile, hence to study the almost forgotten centre – periphery relations in this respect.