Monetáris politikai tendenciák I. Eszköztárak (Tendencies in monetary policy I. - Asset prices)

A közgazdaságtan, szűkebben a monetáris politika előtt két elméleti és gyakorlati kihívást látok: a globális egyensúlytalanságoknak nevezett jelenséget és az eszközár problematikát. Előbbi a világgazdaságban koncentráltan fölhalmozódó adósságokat és követelésállományokat jelenti, utóbbi a banki és nem banki pénzügyi piacok folyamatainak lehetséges pénzügypolitikai vonatkozásaira utal. Mondandómat két cikkben fogalmazom meg. Ez az írás először a monetáris stabilitás és instabilitás kérdéskörét mutatja be történeti keretben, ami tekinthető mindkét aktuális témakör földolgozásához szükséges elméleti fölvezetőnek is. Ezt követi a monetáris politika és az eszközárak kapcsolatának vizsgálata. A következő cikk foglalkozik a globális egyensúlytalanságokkal. Azért választottam e sorrendet, mert a két téma szorosan összefügg, az itt leírt magyarázatok segíthetik a későbbiek megértését. Az írásban többször megfogalmazok saját véleményt, a hangsúly mégis a szakirodalom bemutatásán van. / === / Global imbalances and asset price booms and busts are the two main practical and theoretical challenges in economics, especially in monetary policy. The first of them concerns the accumulative tendencies of debts and claims in the world economy, the second challenge deals with the processes of bank and non bank money markets. These topics are dealt with in two articles. The first one presents the issue of monetary stability and instability from a historical perspective. With that the connections between monetary policy and asset prices will be studied. The next article will deal with global imbalances. The topics are closely related and this order helps better understanding. The articles are mainly based on the current literature although I insert my own views as well.

Monetáris hatásosság közösségi szinten (The community level efficiency of monetary policy)

A monetáris integráció központi szereplője a Közösség jegybankja. A közös valuta értékállóságának közvetlenül fő meghatározója a jegybank. Mozgásterét azonban több tényező alakítja. E tanulmány az intézményi és stratégiai, a tagállami (decentralizált fiskális) és a pénzpiaci környezet függvényében vizsgálja az Európai Központi Bank (ECB) lehetőségeit és monetáris politikájának hatásosságát. / === / The efficiency of the European Economic and Monetary Union is a big dilemma of European applied economics. The first part introduces the monetary policy made by ECB. Rates and objectives are the framework of efficiency analysis. The second part details the common pool resource problem in the community of EMU countries, and describes the prisoner's dilemma of indebting in a currency community. The EMU practice shows free riding behavior of many member states what generally causes higher default risks. The increasing indebtedness shows dysfunction too, as the ECB must adjust the interest rate to the higher default risk which means cost premiums for fiscally disciplined countries as well. The third part analyses the efficiency of the ECB through the standards of monetary transmission. The updated criteria can explain any success or failure of the ECB in a not perfectly homogeneous community. The measures of transmission used in the study are the way of financing (banks vs. market), terms of financing, structure of the banking sector, private sector indebtedness, structure of savings and wealth, price elasticity, interest rate elasticity, wage elasticity. They show that the single monetary policy can create tension in the community not only because of the fiscal differences but also due to money market discrepancies.

A fogyasztói etnocentrizmus új koncepcionális modelljének kialakítása és verifikálása = Forming and verification of a new conceptual model of the customer ethnocentrism

A szerzők cikke az etnocentrikus érzelmek hatását mutatja be a hazai és a külföldi termékek megítélésére. Empirikus kutatásaikra és regressziós modelljeikre támaszkodva felvázolják azt a hatásmechanizmust, amely a szakirodalomba a fogyasztói etnocentrizmus néven vonult be. Megállapítják, hogy másképp hatnak a patrióta és a nacionalista érzelmek a hazai és a külföldi termékek iránti attitűdökre. Míg a hazai termékeknél egy karakterisztikus, többdimenziós kép tárul elénk, addig a cseh, kanadai és német termékek megítéléséből általánosított, külföldi termékek esetében csak a termékkel való azonosulást tudták kiemelni. A megkérdezettek demográfiai jellemzői közül egyedül a férfiak mutattak statisztikailag azonos irányú és erősségű kapcsolatot a hazai és a külföldi termékek megítélésénél. _______________________ The authors’ article presents effects of the ethnocentric emotion of the appreciation of the domestic and foreign goods. Based on their empirical and regressive models they feature that effectmechanism, which is named consumer ethnocentrism in the special literature. They set that the patriot and the nationalist emotions acting differently on attitudes of the domestic and the foreign goods.

A new epistemic model

Meier (2012) gave a "mathematical logic foundation" of the purely measurable universal type space (Heifetz and Samet, 1998). The mathematical logic foundation, however, discloses an inconsistency in the type space literature: a finitary language is used for the belief hierarchies and an infinitary language is used for the beliefs. In this paper we propose an epistemic model to fix the inconsistency above. We show that in this new model the universal knowledgebelief space exists, is complete and encompasses all belief hierarchies. Moreover, by examples we demonstrate that in this model the players can agree to disagree Aumann (1976)'s result does not hold, and Aumann and Brandenburger (1995)'s conditions are not sufficient for Nash equilibrium. However, we show that if we substitute selfevidence (Osborne and Rubinstein, 1994) for common knowledge, then we get at that both Aumann (1976)'s and Aumann and Brandenburger (1995)'s results hold.

A New Approach Model in Post Graduate Training of Local Government Officers

In 2013-15 there was a new type of post graduate training elaborated and piloted in Hungary at the Institute of Executive Training and Continuing Education (VTKI) within the National University of Public Service (NKE). Although the pilot financed by the State Administration Reform Operative Program (ÁROP) had not lacked the previously established attempts to include interactivity in the training, it was the first to observe and apply the actual principles of the European Union 2020 expressed in the threefold criteria of economic growth: smartness, sustainability and inclusiveness. All of them are represented by a pillar of the program like e-learning, class training and field training with the inclusion of local society. According to the objectives of the program there were at least 10 thousand attendees from the civil service sphere set as project indicators, so it has been a large scale training program that took place in 2014 in Hungary. The following article shows the innovations included in this new approach model of post graduate training civil servants.

Exchange Rate Policy and Economic Growth after the Financial Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe

In a paper on the effects of the global financial crisis in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), the author reacts to a paper of Åslund (2011) published in the same issue of Eurasian Geography and Economics on the influence of exchange rate policies on the region’s recovery. The author argues that post-crisis corrections in current account deficits in CEE countries do not in themselves signal a return to steady economic growth. Disagreeing with Åslund over the role of loose monetary policy in fostering the region’s economic problems, he outlines a number of competitiveness problems that remain to be addressed in the 10 new EU member states of CEE, along with improvements in framework conditions supporting future macroeconomic growth.

Alternative Monetary Strategies before EMU Membership in Central Europe

As more and more transition coutries join the eurozone it is becoming reasonable to investigate what monetary policy might be most successful for countries prior to the introduction of the euro. One possible alternative is inflation targeting, which has found application in numerous economies in the last two decades, including the Visegrád Countries. In this paper I am introducing some important aspects and an empirical examination of the monetary policy of the Visegrád Countries. I am providing an overview of previous empirical findings and trying to make some comparisons of new EU and recommendations for pre-accession countries, such as Croatia.