Eltérő modernizációs perspektívák a közel-keleti muszlim államokban (Different modernization perspectives in the middle eastern muslim countries)

A tanulmány célja, hogy körüljárja a tágabb Közel-Keleten tapasztalható modernizációs válság hátterét, lehetséges belső okait és következményeit. A szerző rá kíván mutatni az egyes közel-keleti államok modernizációs lehetőségei közötti különbségekre. Az elemzés – interdiszciplináris megközelítést alkalmazva – a modernizáció gazdasági vetülete mellett a politikai és társadalmi kérdésekkel is foglalkozik. A tanulmány nem tér ki a közel-keleti államok makrogazdasági mutatóira, hiszen erről számos munka megjelent magyar nyelven is. / === / The goal of the paper is to analyze the background, potential causes and consequences of the modernization crisis on the boarder Middle East. The author points out the differences between the possibilities these countries have for modernization. The analyses uses an interdisciplinary approach and examines the economic, political and social aspects of modernization.

A mérsékelt iszlamista mozgalmak szerepe az "arab tavaszt" követő politikai átmenetben (The Role of Moderate Islamist Movements in the Political Transition Following the Arab Spring)

Up to January 2011 authoritarian political regimes in the Middle East had widely been considered stable due to the armed forces, the underdeveloped political institutions, the economic embeddedness of the regimes, the neo-patrimonial structure of the Arab societies and, eventually the characteristics of Islam. Middle Eastern political systems are often considered to belong to a special sub-group of non-democratic regimes called “liberalized autocracies”. The 2011 events show that there is a new, as yet non-defined political structure emerging. Although there are different interpretations of the developments, there is a consensus on the determinant role of the Islamist organizations in the development of the new political structure. The results of the Egyptian and Tunisian parliamentary elections show that the secular political parties could not attract the public, while in Tunisia the long forbidden Hizb an-Nahda could form a government. In Egypt Hizb al-Hurriya established by the Muslim Brotherhood in 2011 won almost half of the parliamentary mandates, and to a great surprise, the Salafi Hizb an-Nour also received 24.3% of the votes. On the basis of the above developments the thesis of the Islamist re-organization of the Middle East, i.e. of a new wave of Islamism was elaborated, according to which the main political winners of the revolts in the Arab countries are the Islamist organizations, which could step in and fill in the political vacuum. While some speak of an Islamist autumn or Islamist winter as the result of the Arab Spring, others prefer the term Islamic revolutions.

Islamist movements at crossroads: the choice between ideology and context-driven approach to politics. Case study on the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan

The aim of the paper is to analyse the ongoing transformation process within the Islamist movements using the example of the moderate Islamic Action Front party in Jordan. The dilemma of participation in the 2010 general elections raised tensions between the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan and its political wing, the Islamic Action Front, and between doves and hawks of the same organizations. Internal debate on the future has started recently among different groups within the Islamist movement in Jordan. The research is based on the author‘s recent field experience in Jordan (April–July 2010, Andrew W. Mellon Fellowship at the American Centre of Oriental Research, Amman, Jordan). The author also conducted research in Syria, Lebanon, Palestine and Egypt, where several interviews were carried out with leading and lower level Islamist politicians. The dynamic changes within Islamic Action Front Party in Jordan and its relation with the regime has been used as reference point. The main question of the research was aa how the changing political and regional context shapes decisions of the Islamist with special attention to the acceptance of democratic values and human rights, political participation, and the meanings of Islamic values in the 21st century, possible cooperation with secular parties/movements/the regime.