Informatika, telekommunikáció és gazdasági stabilitás (Information technology, telecommunications and economic stability)

Fizikai példákon és matematikai modelleken bemutatjuk, hogy a rendszerek működésének hatékonyságnövekedése instabilitást eredményezhet. Megvizsgáljuk, hogy az informatika és a telekommunikáció fejlődése okozhat-e rendszerszintű instabilitást, illetve milyen gazdasági eszközök vannak a stabilitás fenntartására. / === / Using examples from physics and mathematical modeling, the paper shows that increasing efficiency in systems can lead to instability. The question thus arises whether the development of information and telecommunication technology can lead to instability in the economic system. The policy tools used to maintain stability are also discussed.

Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Phytogeographical Units. A Case Study of the Moesz Line

Regional climate models (RCMs) provide reliable climatic predictions for the next 90 years with high horizontal and temporal resolution. In the 21st century northward latitudinal and upward altitudinal shift of the distribution of plant species and phytogeographical units is expected. It is discussed how the modeling of phytogeographical unit can be reduced to modeling plant distributions. Predicted shift of the Moesz line is studied as case study (with three different modeling approaches) using 36 parameters of REMO regional climate data-set, ArcGIS geographic information software, and periods of 1961-1990 (reference period), 2011-2040, and 2041-2070. The disadvantages of this relatively simple climate envelope modeling (CEM) approach are then discussed and several ways of model improvement are suggested. Some statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) methods (logistic regression, cluster analysis and other clustering methods, decision tree, evolutionary algorithm, artificial neural network) are able to provide development of the model. Among them artificial neural networks (ANN) seems to be the most suitable algorithm for this purpose, which provides a black box method for distribution modeling.

Methods of modeling the future shift of the so called Moesz-line

It is important to the landscape architects to become acquainted with the results of the regional climate models so they can adapt to the warmer and more arid future climate. Modelling the potential distribution area of certain plants, which was the theme of our former research, can be a convenient method to visualize the effects of the climate change. A similar but slightly better method is modelling the Moesz-line, which gives information on distribution and usability of numerous plants simultaneously. Our aim is to display the results on maps and compare the different modelling methods (Line modelling, Distribution modelling, Isotherm modelling). The results are spectacular and meet our expectations: according to two of the three tested methods the Moesz-line will shift from South Slovakia to Central Poland in the next 60 years.