Eltérő modernizációs perspektívák a közel-keleti muszlim államokban (Different modernization perspectives in the middle eastern muslim countries)

A tanulmány célja, hogy körüljárja a tágabb Közel-Keleten tapasztalható modernizációs válság hátterét, lehetséges belső okait és következményeit. A szerző rá kíván mutatni az egyes közel-keleti államok modernizációs lehetőségei közötti különbségekre. Az elemzés – interdiszciplináris megközelítést alkalmazva – a modernizáció gazdasági vetülete mellett a politikai és társadalmi kérdésekkel is foglalkozik. A tanulmány nem tér ki a közel-keleti államok makrogazdasági mutatóira, hiszen erről számos munka megjelent magyar nyelven is. / === / The goal of the paper is to analyze the background, potential causes and consequences of the modernization crisis on the boarder Middle East. The author points out the differences between the possibilities these countries have for modernization. The analyses uses an interdisciplinary approach and examines the economic, political and social aspects of modernization.

Kontraszelekció és erkölcsi kockázat a politikában. Vázlat az információs aszimmetria közgazdaságtani fogalmainak politikatudományi alkalmazhatóságáról (Negative selection and moral risk in politics. An outline of the usefulness to political science of the economic concept of information asymmetry)

Az írás a kontraszelekció és az erkölcsi kockázat információ-gazdaságtani fogalmának politikatudományi alkalmazhatósága mellett érvel. Azt kívánja bemutatni, hogy a politikai piac szereplői közti információs aszimmetria mechanizmusainak éppúgy lehetnek súlyos negatív hatásai a demokratikus politikai rendszer működésére nézve, mint ahogy a gazdasági szereplők közti információs aszimmetria - Nobel-díjas közgazdászok érvei szerint - alááshatja a piaci verseny hatékonyságát. Az írás új megvilágításba helyezi a - már Platón óta ismert - politikai kontraszelekció jelenségét, továbbá részletesen foglalkozik az erkölcsi kockázat és a megbízó-megbízott relációk megjelenésével a politikában. Érinti tovább azoknak a mechanizmusoknak - a jelzésnek és a szűrésnek - a megjelenését a politikában, melyeket a közgazdászok az információs aszimmetria csökkentésére ajánlanak. / === / The paper argues in favour of employing in political science the economic concept of information asymmetry, seeking to show that the mechanisms of information asymmetry among the players on the political market may have negative effects on the operation of a democratic political system as information asymmetry among economic actors – according to arguments of Nobel prize-winning economists – has on the efficiency of market competition. The paper sheds new light on the phenomenon of negative political selection (known since Plato's time), and goes on to deal in detail with the appearance of moral risk and client/agent relations in politics. The author touches also on the appearance in politics of mechanisms – signals and filters – that economists suggest for reducing information asymmetry.

A mérsékelt iszlamista mozgalmak szerepe az "arab tavaszt" követő politikai átmenetben (The Role of Moderate Islamist Movements in the Political Transition Following the Arab Spring)

Up to January 2011 authoritarian political regimes in the Middle East had widely been considered stable due to the armed forces, the underdeveloped political institutions, the economic embeddedness of the regimes, the neo-patrimonial structure of the Arab societies and, eventually the characteristics of Islam. Middle Eastern political systems are often considered to belong to a special sub-group of non-democratic regimes called “liberalized autocracies”. The 2011 events show that there is a new, as yet non-defined political structure emerging. Although there are different interpretations of the developments, there is a consensus on the determinant role of the Islamist organizations in the development of the new political structure. The results of the Egyptian and Tunisian parliamentary elections show that the secular political parties could not attract the public, while in Tunisia the long forbidden Hizb an-Nahda could form a government. In Egypt Hizb al-Hurriya established by the Muslim Brotherhood in 2011 won almost half of the parliamentary mandates, and to a great surprise, the Salafi Hizb an-Nour also received 24.3% of the votes. On the basis of the above developments the thesis of the Islamist re-organization of the Middle East, i.e. of a new wave of Islamism was elaborated, according to which the main political winners of the revolts in the Arab countries are the Islamist organizations, which could step in and fill in the political vacuum. While some speak of an Islamist autumn or Islamist winter as the result of the Arab Spring, others prefer the term Islamic revolutions.

International environmental and development policy cooperation and the transition process of the Central and Eastern European countries

The political and economic changes in countries of the Central and Eastern European region during the recent two decades had significant implications on their participation in international environmental policy-making. These changes were motivated by the changing international political priorities and economic interests, realization of their part in the "common but differentiated responsibility" for the global environmental processes and the relatively modest capacities for international development cooperation. The situation of these countries was acknowledged by the international community by granting specific provisions to these "economies in transition" in international environmental policy mechanisms. In spite of the rapidly diverging external relations of the various groups of these countries, to some extent and in different forms the transition phase is still prevailing and has its effect on the ongoing international environmental negotiations. The paper describes the background of these changes, demonstrates the specific provisions for these countries that made possible their participation in the common efforts to tackle the emerging global and regional environmental problems by acceding to the relevant international mechanisms.

Designed for Patience. The Significance of International Factors in the Ukrainian and Belarusian Transitions

This paper focuses on Belarus in order to find explanation as to why could Lukashenko remain the authoritarian leader of Belarus, while in Ukraine the position of the political elite had proved less stable and collapsed in 2004. We seek to determine whether the internal factors (macroeconomic conditions, standard of living, the oppressive nature of the political system) play a significant role in the operation of the domino effect. This article emphasises the determining role of immanent internal factors, thus the political stability in Belarus can be explained by the role of the suppressing political regime, the hindrance of democratic rights and the relatively good living conditions that followed the transformational recession. Whilst in Ukraine, the markedly different circumstances brought forth the success of the Orange Revolution.

Aid Allocation of the Emerging Central and Eastern European Donors

The paper examines the main characteristics of the (re)emerging foreign aid policies of the Visegrád countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia), concentrating on the allocation of their aid resources. We adopt an econometric approach, similar to the ones used in the literature for analyzing the aid allocation of the OECD DAC donors. Using this approach, we examine the various factors that influence aid allocation of the Visegrád countries, using data for the years between 2001 and 2008. Our most important conclusion is that the amount of aid a partner county gets from the four emerging donors is not influenced by the level of poverty or the previous performance (measured by the level of economic growth or the quality of institutions) of the recipients. The main determining factor seems to be geographic proximity, as countries in the Western-Balkans and the Post-Soviet region receive much more aid from the Visegrád countries than other recipients. Historical ties (pre-1989 development relations) and international obligations in the case of Afghanistan and Iraq are also found to be significant explanatory factors. This allocation is in line with the foreign political and economic interests of these new donors. While there are clear similarities between the four donors, the paper also identifies some individual country characteristics.

Világpolitikai tendenciák 2011-ben = Global political trends in 2011

Az Amerikai Egyesült Államok – mint a világ gazdaságilag és katonailag legerősebb hatalma – hamarosan leküzdi a jelenlegi válságot és továbbra is vezető hatalom marad. Európában a főbb tennivalókat továbbra is a demográfiai helyzet, a migráció kezelése és az összeurópai intézmények kialakítása jelenti. A szovjet utódállamok etnikai feszültségekkel és demográfiai hanyatlással, továbbá az orosz befolyás erősödésével számolhatnak. A háborús térségekben a feszültség nem fog csökkenni – Irak, Afganisztán Irán, Észak-Afrika és a Közel-Kelet továbbra is a figyelem középpontjában lesz. Kína gazdasági növekedése következtében a világ második legnagyobb hatalmává léphet elő. Összességében megállapítható, hogy a világ az elmúlt években nem lett biztonságosabb és ez a tendencia folytatódik 2011-ben is. / === / The economic and political processes experienced in the world are followed by great attention not only by experts, but also by public opinion. The most important conclusions of the study are as follows: the United States – as the economically and politically strongest power in the world – will soon overcome the present crisis and preserve its leading power status. The main task in Europe will remain handling the demographic decline and migration, as well as to establish appropriate pan-European institutions. The post-Soviet successor states are facing ethnical tensions and demographic decline. In addition , they cannot resist the strengthening Russian influence. The tension in the war-zones is not expected to significantly ease, Iraq, Afghanistan, North Africa and the Middle East will remain high on the world's agenda. China – thanks to its economic growth – is going to become the second greatest power of the world. In the study we can read in detail about the development tendencies of the regions and states. To sum up, the world has not become safer at all in the past years and this tendency will continue also in 2011.

Aid Allocation of the Emerging Central and Eastern European Donors

The paper examines the main characteristics of the (re)emerging foreign aid policies of the Visegrád countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia), concentrating on the allocation of their aid resources. We adopt an econometric approach, similar to the ones used in the literature for analyzing the aid allocation of the OECD DAC donors. Using this approach, we examine the various factors that influence aid allocation of the Visegrád countries, using data for the years between 2001 and 2008. Our most important conclusion is that the amount of aid a partner county gets from the four emerging donors is not influenced by the level of poverty or the previous performance (measured by the level of economic growth or the quality of institutions) of the recipients. The main determining factor seems to be geographic proximity, as countries in the Western-Balkans and the Post-Soviet region receive much more aid from the Visegrád countries than other recipients. Historical ties (pre-1989 development relations) and international obligations in the case of Afghanistan and Iraq are also found to be significant explanatory factors. This allocation is in line with the foreign political and economic interests of these new donors. While there are clear similarities between the four donors, the paper also identifies some individual country characteristics.

Centre-periphery tensions regarding Central and Eastern Europe

Security issues have played an important role in widening the European Union with eight Central and Eastern European economies. The time since have proved these concerns to be correct. The present North-South tension within the Euro-zone highlights even more the West-East tensions inherent in the international relations since the Eastern enlargement. Various divisions – political and economic alike – have already been felt throughout the whole period of 2004-20122 (Balázs, J.1985, 1993, 1995, 1996). The worldwide economic crisis of 2008, however, has revealed even more the hidden tensions in these relations. The political events after the 2010 election in Hungary, those in Romania in 2012, the continuous anti-EU declarations of the Czech president present ample evidence to the fact: the enlargement has been based more on political wishes and will than on firm economic reasoning. The outcome is constant struggle between the parties to keep face and save the state of the European Union. Ongoing political and economic struggles around Greece, Portugal and Spain are other forms of fundamental problems within the European Union. It is worthwhile, hence to study the almost forgotten centre – periphery relations in this respect.

Reluctant Donors? The Europeanization of International Development Policies in the New Members

The EU played an instrumental role re-starting the international development policies in Central and Eastern European member states, but questions remain about how far this policy area has been Europeanized since accession. Focusing on the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, the paper investigates why the new donors have been reluctant to adopt the EU’s development acquis more fully. The paper traces the process of the EU’s development policy rulemaking and subsequent national rule implementation to understand the socialization opportunities these processes offer. The conclusions reveal thrre reasons why socialization has been weak: (1) perceptions among the new member states on the development acquis’ procedural legitimacy; (2) low domestic resonance with the development acquis; and (3) inconsistencies in the activities of norm entrepreneurs. The paper contributes to our understanding of development policy in the EU, in particular how decision making takes place within the Council and its Working Groups post enlargement.

Links between migration and the presence of foreign combatants in armed conflict

This article explores the connections between migration and foreign combat, offering an improved definition of „foreign fighters,” and a general concept of foreign combatants’ behaviour as an anomalous form of migration. In contrast with the popular discourse and terrorism-related concerns about present-day Western European foreign fighters in Iraq and Syria (and their return to Europe) and Middle Eastern migrant refugees (and their arrival in Europe), the intention of this article is to offer a conceptually thorough consideration of the causal connections between movements of migration and the presence of foreign combatants in armed conflict, informed by a wide sample of cases. Such an assessment has to take place with a view to all forms of migration (including forced migration), all forms of foreign combat (not only foreign combat on the side of non-state actors as David Malet's oft-cited but overly restrictive definition would imply), and regions of the world beyond the Middle East and Islamic countries. Along these guiding lines, the article points out many comparatively rarely considered cases of foreign combat as well as the underestimated obstacles in the way of fighting abroad. Taking account of the latter allows refutation of a key implication of „new war theory” (its focus on „greed” as a motive of combatants), in light of the continued importance of cultural factors and ideological motives for participation in foreign combat.

The Multilateralisation of Soviet Bloc Security: The Hungarian Revolution from an Eastern European Perspective

The Hungarian Revolution is often analysed in a national context or from the angle of Hungarian-Soviet relations. From this perspective, the Eastern European satellites seem mere puppets and the Soviet bloc a monolith. Archival evidence nevertheless shows that the Kremlin actually attempted to build a new kind of international relations after Stalin’s death in 1953, in which the Eastern European leaders would gain more scope for manoeuvre. This attempt at liberalisation even facilitated the uprisings in Hungary in 1956. Avoiding a teleological approach to the Hungarian Revolution, this article argues that the Soviet invasion was neither inevitable, nor wholly unilateral. Khrushchev even sought to legitimise the invasion in bilateral and multilateral consultations. There was a mutual interest in sacrificing Hungary’s sovereignty to safeguard the communist monopoly on power. This multilateralisation of Soviet bloc security is an important explanatory factor in an analysis of the Revolution and its repercussions in Eastern Europe.

In Search of Sovereignty: Central and Eastern Europe, 1956-1989

International theory is replete with contested concepts, none more than state sovereignty. Although embodied in the UN Charter, it came under continuous strain during the early Cold War, culminating in the crucial year of 1956. Subsequent Soviet ideologists sought to justify the invasion of Czechoslovakia as „limited sovereignty”, dubbed by US analysts the "Brezhnev Doctrine". A few Western scholars thought this ended with the "non-invasion" of Poland in 1980-1981, but Russian archives reveal that it was not annulled until spring 1989.

Spheres of Influence: A Few Reflections on the Concept

In the frame of the Ukrainian crisis the question of spheres of influence has returned to political discourse. This may be an awkward subject, but what if we only deny the existence of such power constellations as spheres of influence? Do spheres of influence exist, or are they relics of history, and mere rhetoric? And if they exist, where can we find them? The hypothesis in this article is that instead of being a tangible reality, spheres of influence are obscure and contested political constructions, which nevertheless can have an impact on political behaviour. To demonstrate this, the article will first introduce a few examples of the current use of the concept. Secondly, a few remarks follow concerning the different IR schools of thought, and conceptual history as a method. Next, the article turns to discussing a few dictionaries and the empirical material for the present inquiry, which consists of recent textbooks, i.e. the current political science curriculum in one particular university, at the University of Tampere, Finland. More empirical cases deal with the division of Africa, the post-WWII situation, and the Hungarian revolution of 1956.