Entrepreneurial Inclination and Entrepreneurship in Hungary and in Europe

The lecture has two parts. The first part – based upon Eurobarometer data - briefly investigates the proportion and social characteristics of potential entrepreneurs in European comparative perspective. It proves that the Hungarian data are close to the European average. The second part – based on Hungarian panel data (1992-2007) - examines the predictive force of entrepreneurial inclination upon future entrepreneurial career and well-being. The results reveal that potential and actual entrepreneurship have strong social similarities and lasting connections despite the great volatility of both. Entrepreneurial inclination and more concrete plans have influenced the entrepreneurial career chances with nearly identical force, without cancelling each other’s effect. Entrepreneurial motivation has also to do with subjective well-being. The “push” factors of initial dissatisfaction with work and material conditions have lost their significance while the connection between entrepreneurial inclination and satisfaction with future perspectives persists in the longer run. The matrix of original motivation and further career provides a typology of four economic actors: that of “conscious” employees, “blocked”, “forced” and „conscious” entrepreneurs.

The role of longevity risk in Hungary

In this paper, I analyze the role of longevity risk in Hungary in the public pension system and the life annuity segment of the life insurance market, which are two primary financial sectors of relevance to this special type of actuarial risk, using state-of-the- art econometric methodology. To this end, I present an overview and the mathematical background of several important current mortality forecasting techniques from the Lee–Carter model up to unifying paradigm of the Age–Period–Cohort family of models. After presenting the findings of a case study on the public pension system based on the paper of Bajk ́o, Maknics, T ́oth and V ́ekas, I conclude that longevity risk jeopardizes the sustainability of the Hungarian public pension system in the long run. In another case study, I present an analysis of the role of longevity risk in the pre- mium of private pension annuities, a relevant topic due to recent changes in a law on Hungarian voluntary pension funds, following an earlier analysis of M ́ajer and Kov ́acs. Based on the criterion on out-of-sample forecasting accuracy, I find that the Cairns–Blake– Dowd mortality forecasting model aimed specifically at modeling old-age mortality outperforms the Lee–Carter model applied by M ́ajer and Kov ́acs . Based on numerical results, I finally conclude that the role of longevity risk in the Hungarian life annuity mar- ket has increased significantly in the past decade and is likely to further increase in the future.

Inventory investment and sectoral characteristics in some OECD countries

This paper discusses the effects of sectoral structure on the long run macroeconomic inventory behaviour of national economies. Data on 15 OECD countries are included in the analysis, which is based on correlation and cluster analysis methodologies. The study is part of a long-term research project exploring factors influencing the inventory behaviour of national economies. First, we introduce some basic characteristics of macroeconomic inventory formation in the 15 OECD countries. We argue that our previous results on the existence of specific characteristic features of macroeconomic inventory investment are justified, hence it makes sense to study the factors influencing these features. We then examine the contribution of various sectors to the production of in the countries involved and the relationship between sectoral structure and inventory intensity (annual inventory change/Gross Value Added). We find that the high share of agriculture and manufacturing increases inventory intensity, that the increasing share of services has a negative effect and that the role of construction and trade is not obvious. The relatively low stability of the statistical results warns us to be cautious with our judgements. Further, case-by-case analysis would be required to obtain more solid results.

And the first shall be the last

This study analyzes the puzzle of Hungarian economic drifting in a long run perspective. The underlying puzzle for the investigation is why bad policies are invariably popular and good policies unpopular, thus why political and economic rationality never overlap. The first part of the article summarizes in eight points the basic features of the postwar period. Then six lessons are offered, which might be useful for other countries in transition or for students of comparative economics and politics, lessons that can be generalized on the basis of the individual country experience.

Robert J. Barro és a költségvetési túlköltekezés (Robert J. Barro and fiscal overspending)

Robert J. Barro, a Harvard Egyetem professzora főként a gazdaságpolitika makroökonómiai modellezése területén elért eredményei alapján ismert a közgazdászok körében. Tevékenysége kiterjed mind az elméleti, mind pedig az empirikus kutatások területére. Jelen tanulmány Barro azon kutatásainak feltételezéseit és eredményeit összegzi, amelyek a ricardói ekvivalenciaelvből kiindulva a költségvetési politika elméletét magyarázó újszerű eredmények kibontakozását segítették elő. A 80-as években az Egyesült Államok magas költségvetési hiánya számos közgazdászt ösztönzött hasonló témájú elmélet kidolgozására. Mivel hazánkban szinte mindennapos vita forrása a költségvetési hiány túlzott mértéke, ami veszélyezteti a monetáris közösségben való részvételünket, különösen érdekes és időszerű annak áttekintése, hogy hogyan gondolkodik egy modern közgazdász a költségvetési hiány okairól és következményeiről. ________________ The question of budgetary discipline emerges in relation to the criteria of the Economic and Monetary Union in almost all European special journals today. There is much less attention paid to budgetary overspending, the adjustment of which caused a serious puzzle for the government and the economists of the United States in the 80's. The Lucasian world of new classical economics has questioned the effectiveness of government intervention, it confuted above all the efficiency of fiscal policy. The macroeconomic models of Barro (1979, 1986) introduced in the present study - building upon the theoretical approach of economic policy on similar foundations - examine the effect of budgetary spending principally from a long-run perspective. His empirical analysis, overarching almost seventy years (1916–1982), is based upon the time series of variables affecting the budgetary deficit of the United States, distinguishing the effect of the usual government expenses from the over average items within. On the basis of his investigation on the United States and the United Kingdom he, furthermore, did not reject the economic invigorating role of government spending, he opposed Lucas' conclusions and got a modest step closer to the Keynesian standpoint in this sense. Barro, however, irrefutably argues on classical grounds, he recalls and reevaluates the Ricardian equivalence principle, summarizes the critiques raised against it and unintentionally praises the Classical economists. According to Barro we cannot ignore the one-time theorem of Ricardo if we are endeavoring to model government spending - we have to count with it if not definitely as a positive, but at least as a normative economic relationship.

Hirschman meets Williamson: Relationship-specific investment and loyalty

In Albert Hirschman’s theory, loyalty plays a key role in the equilibrium between exit and voice. This article extends economic (rational choice) analysis to the emergence of loyalty, which Hirschman considers an exogenous factor. This is accomplished by linking Williamson’s theory of specific investment to Hirschman’s model. Three cases are distinguished: (1) loyalty is due to specific investment; (2) loyalty is due to (intermediate) factors influenced by specific investment; and, (3) loyalty is independent of specific investment. A simple model formalizes the first case. A paradoxical dynamic of loyalty is identified: a lower degree of specificity may lead to a weakening of loyalty in the short run but astrengthening of loyalty in the long run. An application to the process of European integration is sketched.

Az ügyfélszerzési mód hatásának vizsgálata a vevőelégedettségre és a lojalitásra a szervezeti piacon (Analyzing the impact of the customer acquisition mode to the customer satisfaction and loyalty on the corporate market – assessing the effect of recommendation with applying structural equation modelling)

A kutatás célja a marketingeszközök hosszú távú hatásának pontosabb megértése szervezetközi viszonylatban a vevőértékelési modellek egyik nehezen számszerűsíthető tényezője, az ajánlás hatásának vizsgálata által. A hatások elemzésére a strukturális egyenlőségek módszerét (Structural Equation Modelling) alkalmazta a szerző. Rámutatott, hogy az ajánlással szerzett ügyfelek elégedettebbek, lojálisabbak és gyakrabban ajánlják a vállalatot a más módon szerzett ügyfeleknél. Az összefüggések feltárása és bizonyítása különösen az ajánlás kumulatív hatása miatt jelentős. Az eredmények gyakorlati alkalmazásával lehetőség nyílik az ügyfélkör differenciáltabb, értékalapú szegmentációjára, amely pontosabb célcsoport-meghatározást lesz lehetővé, és hosszú távon hozzájárul a vállalat optimális ügyfélportfóliójának kialakításához. ______ The research is aimed at more precise understanding of longterm effects of marketing tools in business to business relations by analysing the impacts of recommendation potential, one of the hardly measurable factors of customer value concept. Structural Equation Modelling is applied for conducting effect analysis. The results show that customers acquired with recommendation are more satisfied, more loyal, and make more recommendation that other customer. These results are more interesting if we take the cumulative effect of recommendation in account. They provide bases for a more differentiated segmentation of customers, which results in a more accurate identification of target groups. In the long-run, the application of the customer-value concept considerably contributes to creating an optimal customer portfolio for companies.

What is the Future of Strategic Management?

The history of planning and creating strategies has a past of over half a century. Throughout this lifetime period we have witnessed both the evolution of theory and practice. The MBA study books in the last-third of the 20th century have with predilection exhibited this very process as a complex of monetary centered budget planning, forecast-based planning, strategic planning and strategic management. There might be a controversy existing about the naming, characteristics and timing of these different sections but there is an accordance that the changes that we have taken place in the last decade as a whole without a doubt can be derived from these very changes in the business environment or in some outstanding cases (like 9/11) they can be acknowledged as the ability of corporate foreseeing and the ability to adapt to the vision of the future. The main purposes of the research is to provide a summarized picture about the changing process of this procedure during last decades as far as the planning and creating strategies are concerned and also their milestones and periods. Try to explore and systemize the very aspects of these changes. The happenings of the first decade of the new millennium are outstandingly interesting if we consider their real effect on the theory and practice of strategic management. Let us remember the euphoria around the year 2000, the predictions of „new technologies”, „new economy”, „new organization” and „new leadership”. We have implied before on the destruction of the twin towers of the World Trade Center which meant a new era, a new quality of international terrorism and its consequences (Afghanistan, Iraq). But the „product” of this decade is the strategic aim that companies focus on, which is the social responsibility regarding the unavoidance of the effects of climate change on the long run. During the research the big question has risen concerning how did the science of strategic management do as far as the predictions of the global monetary and economic crisis are concerned? And also its solutions this very science has to offer in order to handle and get over the crisis. Does it conclude from the answers given to the questions that a change in paradigms are necessary, a new quality is needed or may be we have come to a new crossroad of the development process that will take over strategic management? (...)

Értékteremtés e-kereskedelemmel – kitörési lehetőség a recesszió sújtotta magyar kiskereskedelemben? (Value creation of e-commerce – Chance to break out for the recession-hit Hungarian retail sector?)

Kimutatható-e az e-kereskedelem hatása a vállalati teljesítményre a recesszióval küzdő magyar kiskereskedelmi piacon? A hagyományos bolti értékesítés vagy on-line kereskedelem vezet hazánkban jobb pénzügyi teljesítményhez? Ezekre a kérdésekre a magyar IKT (infokommunikációs technológiai) kiskereskedők 187 elemű mintáján igyekeznek a szerzők választ keresni, az adatgyűjtést újszerű módon részben automatizált webpókokra bízva, következtetéseiket pedig elsősorban klaszterelemzési technikákra építve. Megállapítják, hogy bár a legjobb bolti kereskedők többnyire valamivel nagyobb és stabilabb profitrátákkal jellemezhetők a válság éveiben is, a piac megtartása és növelése terén már egyértelműen az e-kereskedők jeleskedtek. Eredményeik szerint az e-kereskedelem hozzásegítheti a kiskereskedőket a munkaerő-hatékonyság növeléséhez is, ám ha gyors rendelkezésre állással vagy alacsony árakkal csábítják vevőiket, akkor a profittöbblet egy részét felőrölheti a magasabb készlettartási igény vagy az árverseny. _____ The study examines whether e-commerce has a significant impact on corporate performance on the Hungarian retail market struggling with the effects of economic downturn. Is it brick-and-mortal retail or e-commerce that leads to a better financial performance? Using the innovative data gathering tools of automotive web crawlers the authors seek answers to these questions on a sample of 187 Hungarian ICT retailers. Based on cluster analysis they conclude that while the best traditional retailers have somewhat higher and more stable profitability ratios even during the years of recession, e-tailers are more successful in retaining and increasing their market share. E-commerce is also associated with higher human resource productivity, but the possible profit surplus originating from this advantage could be jeopardized in the long run as new electronic traders typically attract their customers by shorter service time or lower prices.

Parametrikus nyugdíjreformok és életciklus-munkakínálat (Parametric pension reforms and life-cycle labour supply)

A társadalombiztosítási nyugdíjrendszer finanszírozása pusztán a demográfiai folyamatok következtében is jelentős terhet ró majd a költségvetésére, amin a különböző parametrikus és paradigmatikus nyugdíjreformok enyhíthetnek. A reformok azonban hosszú távon olyan viselkedési, munkakínálati reakciókat válthatnak ki, amelyek alapvetően változtatják meg a költségvetési hatásokat. Az 1999 és 2009 között Magyarországon megfigyelhető átlagos munka- és nyugdíjkorprofilok bemutatása után arra tettünk kísérletet, hogy mikroökonómiai alapon határozzuk meg néhány alapvető parametrikus nyugdíjreformnak a férfiak életciklus-munkakínálatára gyakorolt hatását. A modell paramétereit a magyar gazdaság 1999 és 2009 közötti jellemzőinek megfelelően kalibráltuk. Eredményeink szerint a helyettesítési ráta csökkentése, a nyugdíjkorhatár emelése és a svájci indexálás árindexálásra cserélése összességében számottevően növeli az egyes képzettségi csoportok munkakínálatát, s a fiatalabb korosztályok javára csoportosítja át az életciklus-munkakínálatot, míg a nyugdíj kiszámításához figyelembe vett évek számának megváltoztatása nem hoz jelentős aggregált hatást, és nem jár a munkakínálat korcsoportok közötti átcsoportosításával. ____ Financing the social-security pension system will weigh heavily on the government budget in developed countries, merely through the projected demographic processes. The burden could be eased by various parametric and paradigmatic pension reforms, but in the long run such reforms may trigger behavioural, labour-supply responses, which may alter the budgetary effects fundamentally. Having described the average work and pension profiles in Hungary between 1999 and 2009, the authors use a microeconomic approach in an attempt to assess the effect of certain parametric pension reforms on the life-cycle labour supply of males. The parameters for the model were calibrated for the characteristics of the Hungarian economy. The results show that decreasing the replacement rate, increasing the retirement age and replacing Swiss indexation of pensions by price indexation cause a considerable increase in the labour supply of all education-level groups, whereas changing the number of years considered in computing pensions does not have a significant aggregate effect. While introducing price indexation increases the labour supply of all cohorts by the same amount, the other reforms reallocate the life-cycle labour supply, mainly towards younger age-groups.

Államadósság, optimális politika, finanszírozás (State Debt, Optimal Policy, and Financing)

A fejlett ipari országoknak is az államadósság csökkentése vagy akár szinten tartása okozza az egyik legfontosabb gazdaságpolitikai dilemmát. Az euróövezet tagállamai esetében is ez a kritérium tűnik a legkevésbé teljesíthetőnek, de Japán és az Egyesült Államok is leküzdhetetlennek tűnő államadóssággal birkózik. A tanulmány rövid áttekintést ad néhány meghatározó közgazdasági megközelítésről, amelyek az államadósság szintjének hosszú távú alakulása mögött meghúzódó tényezőket, gazdaságpolitikai lépéseket magyarázzák. Végül az elméletek alapján tanulságokat fogalmaz meg a magyar államadósság kezelését illetően az 1990–2010 közötti folyamatok ismeretében. _____ The macroeconomic developments of the last decade have confirmed that one of the most important dilemmas that even developed economies have to face is the reduction or even sustaining of the state debt. In case of the eurozone member states this criterion is the most difficult to be accomplished, furthermore the United States and Japan are among the global powers that have to cope with state debts which seems to be insurmountable. The aim of this paper is to provide a brief overview of some decisive economic approaches (Barro [1979], Lucas and Stokey [1983], Marcet and Scott [2007], Martin [2009] etc.) that explain the factors behind the formation of long-run state debt level and economic policy measures accompanying state debt management. The paper also attempts to draw some lessons for the Hungarian state debt management in view of the 1990-2010 processes.

Can intellectual property rights impact directly on productivity: a case study in manufacturing industries

According to the institutional economics thesis the role of IPRs is one of the relevant determinants of economic growth in long run. Measures of IPRs have been limited and empirical studies have not been able to evaluate their impacts on productivity growth. The major conclusion that the author can be drawn from his estimations is that the extent to which patent rights and trademarks, ceteris paribus, positively correlated with output per capita depends on the intensity of technology.

Introduction of soft budget constraint as an analyzing tool into public management. The case of the Hungarian public administration reform

Public management reforms are usually underpinned by arguments that they will make the public administration system more effective and efficient. In practice, however, it is very hard to determine whether a given reform will improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the public administration system in the long run. Here, I shall examine how the concept of the soft budget constraint (SBC) introduced by János Kornai (Kornai 1979, 1986; Kornai, Maskin & Roland 2003) can be applied to this problem. In the following, I shall describe the Hungarian public administration reforms implemented by the Orbán government from 2010 onward and analyze its reforms, focusing on which measures harden and which ones soften the budget constraint of the actors of the Hungarian public administration system. In the literature of economics, there is some evidence-based knowledge on how to harden/soften the budget constraint, which improves/reduces the effectiveness and hence the efficiency of the given system. By using the concept of SBC, I also hope to shed some light on the rationale behind the Hungarian government’s introduction of such a contradictory reform package. Previously, the concept of SBC was utilized narrowly in public management studies, mostly in the field of fiscal federalism. My goal is to apply the concept to a broader area of public management studies. My conclusion is that the concept of SBC can significantly contribute to public management studies by deepening our knowledge on the reasons behind the success and failure of public administration reforms.

A marketingeszközök és –tevékenységek részvényesi értékre gyakorolt hatása (The effect of marketing assets and activities on shareholder value)

A vállalati marketing pénzügyi teljesítményre, különösen részvényesi értékre gyakorolt hatásának kimutatása mind fontosabbá válik a marketingráfordítások nagyságának növekedésével, valamint annak felismerésével, hogy a részvényesek számára vevői érték nélkül nem lehet hosszú távon értéket biztosítani, azonban kedvező piaci eredményekkel sem feltétlenül valósul meg a pénzügyi teljesítmény növekedése. A szerzők tanulmányukban a marketingeszközök és -tevékenységek részvényesi értékre gyakorolt hatását vizsgálják, rámutatnak arra, hogy milyen módon befolyásolhatják a részvényeseket megillető szabad pénzáramot, a tulajdonosi megtérülést, a stratégiai tervezési időhorizontot és a végértéket. A marketing néhány lehetséges negatív hatását is kiemelik. Ezt követően felvázolják a marketingjellegű beruházások reálopciós karakterisztikáit, valamint játékelméleti összefüggéseit dinamikusan változó környezetben. ________ Proving the effect of corporate marketing on financial performance, especially on shareholder value, becomes more and more important as marketing expenditures increase. Furthermore by the recognition that for shareholders without customer value it is not possible to provide value in the long run, however, neither good market results can assure the growth of financial performance. In this paper the authors examine the effect of marketing assets and activities on shareholder value, they point out how these can influence free cash flow to equity, shareholder return, strategic planning time period and terminal value. They emphasize also some possible negative effects of marketing. The authors outline the real optional characteristics of marketing investments and their game theoretical relations in dynamic environment.

A méltányosság – egy kísérlet a fogalom tisztázására (The fairness: an attempt to clarify the term)

A méltányosság egyaránt szerepet játszik a társadalmi, szervezeti és szervezetközi kapcsolatokban. A szakirodalom szerint a mindkét fél által méltányosnak tekintett kapcsolatok növelik a részt vevő szervezetek aggregált eredményességét, hosszú távon a kölcsönös és közös versenyelőny kialakítását szolgálják. De mit jelent a méltányosság? A szerző ismerteti a méltányosság és a hozzá szorosan kötődő fogalmak általános meghatározását, majd megvizsgálja Arisztotelész nézeteit az igazságosságról és a méltányosságról. Érint néhány filozófiai koncepciót, melyek a társadalmi igazságosságot egymástól eltérő módon interpretálják, majd részletezi a közgazdaságtan, a kísérleti közgazdaságtan, valamint a szervezeti pszichológia legjelentősebb igazságossági és méltányossági koncepcióit. A tanulmány átfogó képet nyújt a méltányosság definícióiról az áttekintett szakirodalom és a további vállalatközi méltányosságkutatáshoz kötődő relevancia alapján. _______ Fairness plays a role in social,organizational and interorganizational relations. Relationships which are considered to be fair by both parties increase the aggregate effectiveness of the participating organizations and develop mutual and reciprocal competitive advantage in the long-run. But what does fairness mean? The author describes the general definition of fairness and its closely related notions, which is followed by a review of Aristotle’s understanding of justice and equity. Some of the philosophical concepts with different social justice interpretation are examined. The author details the most important concepts of justice, equity and fairness of economics, experimental economics, and organizational psychology. The study provides a comprehensive picture of fairness and equity definitions based on the literature overview and the relevance of further research related to inter-company fairness.