Inventory investment and sectoral characteristics in some OECD countries

This paper discusses the effects of sectoral structure on the long run macroeconomic inventory behaviour of national economies. Data on 15 OECD countries are included in the analysis, which is based on correlation and cluster analysis methodologies. The study is part of a long-term research project exploring factors influencing the inventory behaviour of national economies. First, we introduce some basic characteristics of macroeconomic inventory formation in the 15 OECD countries. We argue that our previous results on the existence of specific characteristic features of macroeconomic inventory investment are justified, hence it makes sense to study the factors influencing these features. We then examine the contribution of various sectors to the production of in the countries involved and the relationship between sectoral structure and inventory intensity (annual inventory change/Gross Value Added). We find that the high share of agriculture and manufacturing increases inventory intensity, that the increasing share of services has a negative effect and that the role of construction and trade is not obvious. The relatively low stability of the statistical results warns us to be cautious with our judgements. Further, case-by-case analysis would be required to obtain more solid results.

What is the Future of Strategic Management?

The history of planning and creating strategies has a past of over half a century. Throughout this lifetime period we have witnessed both the evolution of theory and practice. The MBA study books in the last-third of the 20th century have with predilection exhibited this very process as a complex of monetary centered budget planning, forecast-based planning, strategic planning and strategic management. There might be a controversy existing about the naming, characteristics and timing of these different sections but there is an accordance that the changes that we have taken place in the last decade as a whole without a doubt can be derived from these very changes in the business environment or in some outstanding cases (like 9/11) they can be acknowledged as the ability of corporate foreseeing and the ability to adapt to the vision of the future. The main purposes of the research is to provide a summarized picture about the changing process of this procedure during last decades as far as the planning and creating strategies are concerned and also their milestones and periods. Try to explore and systemize the very aspects of these changes. The happenings of the first decade of the new millennium are outstandingly interesting if we consider their real effect on the theory and practice of strategic management. Let us remember the euphoria around the year 2000, the predictions of „new technologies”, „new economy”, „new organization” and „new leadership”. We have implied before on the destruction of the twin towers of the World Trade Center which meant a new era, a new quality of international terrorism and its consequences (Afghanistan, Iraq). But the „product” of this decade is the strategic aim that companies focus on, which is the social responsibility regarding the unavoidance of the effects of climate change on the long run. During the research the big question has risen concerning how did the science of strategic management do as far as the predictions of the global monetary and economic crisis are concerned? And also its solutions this very science has to offer in order to handle and get over the crisis. Does it conclude from the answers given to the questions that a change in paradigms are necessary, a new quality is needed or may be we have come to a new crossroad of the development process that will take over strategic management? (...)

The economic approach of advertising and the problem of allocating advertising budgets during a recession

The importance of advertising has changed in many aspects in the last decade, and mainly during the last years of the economic crisis. Economics traditionally did not find advertising a valuable factor until empirical studies demonstrated that advertisement affects consumer perception by means of indicating the quality of the underlying product. Consequently, products that are advertised more frequently, are more likely to be associated with a higher quality. Nevertheless, advertising is a strong tool in competition, which statement is confirmed by the recognition that increasing consumer knowledge contributes to the diffusion of innovation and to the reduction of research and development (R&D) costs. This contribution can be achieved nowadays by consumer interactivity, where companies deliberately rely on the involvement of their consumers. Recently, when companies were confronted to the global economic crisis, brand managers realized that allocating advertising budgets in a recession (considering the actual state of the economic conditions) is a highly important decision factor beside competition, consumer behaviour, trends or industrial conditions. Companies have to realize that their communication budgets are planned substantially in a different way in times of crisis than during an upsurge. Moreover, should a company make the best of maintaining their advertising budgets in recession times, it will indicate more trust towards their consumers and show a more favorable image towards their investors. This study assembles different approaches from the economics of advertising to draw conclusions for the subsequent analyses of advertising in times of a crisis. The main objective with the literature review is to show, that pro-cyclical actions (reducing advertising budgets in times of crisis and overspending during upsurge) of companies can lead to problems of profitability, consumer trust and competitiveness in the long run.

Az autóipar szerkezeti átrendeződése – Vállalati stratégiák és a válság hatásai (Structural change in the automotive industry – corporate strategies and the impact of the crisis)

Az írás a globális értékláncok élén álló autóipari cégek világgazdasági válságra adott reakcióit foglalja össze. Megállapítja, hogy a válságnak messze nincs vége: az iparág globális átrendeződése folytatódik. A globális értékláncokba sikeresen betagozódott közép-európai autóipari klaszter ezeknek a folyamatoknak mindmáig nyertese volt. Számolni kell azonban azzal, hogy továbbra is sok a technológiai és a piaci bizonytalanság: az új szereplők belépése, új üzleti modellek elterjedése hosszabb távon felboríthatja a jelenlegi status quo-t, és veszélyeztetheti a hagyományos autóipari befektetőiket munkabér-alapú versenyképességgel megtartani próbáló közép- és kelet-európai országok pozícióit. Az autóipari működő tőkét fogadó közép-kelet-európai országok számára hosszabb távon veszélyt jelenthet az autóipari üzleti modellek átalakulása, a gyártás teljes kiszervezése komplex gyártási szolgáltatást vállaló cégekhez, mivel ez esetben az értéklánc vezető vállalatai bezárhatják a régióban működő gyártóbázisaikat. Az értékláncok élén álló globális cégek „menekülés a minőségbe” stratégiája helyi szinten is követhető, követendő, a működő tőkét fogadó országok versenyképessége kizárólag a helyi leányvállalatok állandó „feljebb lépésével” tartható fenn. ______ This paper summarizes lead firms’ reactions to crisis in global automotive value chains. The paper advances five theses. Author argues that crisis is not over yet, the global restructuring of the industry continues. Actors in the CEE automotive cluster have successfully become integrated into global value chains and have thereby been the winners of past restructuring processes. Nevertheless, technological and market uncertainties prevail: entry of new economic actors and the diffusion of new business models may, in the long run, disrupt the current status quo and jeopardise the world economic position of CEE countries that have been relying solely on their labour cost advantages to sustain direct investment inflows in their automotive industries. In the long run the automotive industries of Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies may become threatened by the transformation of the prevailing automotive business model, the outsourcing of manufacturing and related support activities to complex manufacturing services providers, which could lead to the closure of lead firms’ manufacturing facilities in CEE. Lead firms’ increased focus on high quality high value adding activities strategy can and should be followed by local subsidiaries through a continuous strive for upgrading.