Designed for Patience. The Significance of International Factors in the Ukrainian and Belarusian Transitions

This paper focuses on Belarus in order to find explanation as to why could Lukashenko remain the authoritarian leader of Belarus, while in Ukraine the position of the political elite had proved less stable and collapsed in 2004. We seek to determine whether the internal factors (macroeconomic conditions, standard of living, the oppressive nature of the political system) play a significant role in the operation of the domino effect. This article emphasises the determining role of immanent internal factors, thus the political stability in Belarus can be explained by the role of the suppressing political regime, the hindrance of democratic rights and the relatively good living conditions that followed the transformational recession. Whilst in Ukraine, the markedly different circumstances brought forth the success of the Orange Revolution.

The Socioeconomic Background of the Divergence of Belarusian and Ukrainian Political Systems

The aim of this paper is to analyze the political, social and economic background of the divergence of Belarusian and Ukrainian transitions. We focus on Belarus in order to find explanation for questions such as why could Lukashenko remain the authoritarian leader of Belarus, while in Ukraine the position of the political elite had proved less stable and collapsed in 2004. On the theoretical framework of elite-sociology, we seek to determine whether the internal factors (as macroeconomic conditions, standard of living, the oppressive nature of the political system and the structure of the political elite) play a significant role in the operation of the domino effect. This article emphasises the determining role of immanent internal factors, thus the political stability in Belarus can be explained by the role of the suppressing political regime, the hindrance of democratic rights and the relatively good living conditions that followed the transformational recession. Whilst in Ukraine, the markedly different circumstances brought forth the success of the Orange Revolution.

Világpolitikai tendenciák 2011-ben = Global political trends in 2011

Az Amerikai Egyesült Államok – mint a világ gazdaságilag és katonailag legerősebb hatalma – hamarosan leküzdi a jelenlegi válságot és továbbra is vezető hatalom marad. Európában a főbb tennivalókat továbbra is a demográfiai helyzet, a migráció kezelése és az összeurópai intézmények kialakítása jelenti. A szovjet utódállamok etnikai feszültségekkel és demográfiai hanyatlással, továbbá az orosz befolyás erősödésével számolhatnak. A háborús térségekben a feszültség nem fog csökkenni – Irak, Afganisztán Irán, Észak-Afrika és a Közel-Kelet továbbra is a figyelem középpontjában lesz. Kína gazdasági növekedése következtében a világ második legnagyobb hatalmává léphet elő. Összességében megállapítható, hogy a világ az elmúlt években nem lett biztonságosabb és ez a tendencia folytatódik 2011-ben is. / === / The economic and political processes experienced in the world are followed by great attention not only by experts, but also by public opinion. The most important conclusions of the study are as follows: the United States – as the economically and politically strongest power in the world – will soon overcome the present crisis and preserve its leading power status. The main task in Europe will remain handling the demographic decline and migration, as well as to establish appropriate pan-European institutions. The post-Soviet successor states are facing ethnical tensions and demographic decline. In addition , they cannot resist the strengthening Russian influence. The tension in the war-zones is not expected to significantly ease, Iraq, Afghanistan, North Africa and the Middle East will remain high on the world's agenda. China – thanks to its economic growth – is going to become the second greatest power of the world. In the study we can read in detail about the development tendencies of the regions and states. To sum up, the world has not become safer at all in the past years and this tendency will continue also in 2011.

Várható világpolitikai tendenciák 2012-ben = Global political trends 2012

A 2012-es év várhatóan nem hoz radikális változást a világgazdaságban és a világpolitikában, meglepetésekkel azonban számolni kell. A gazdasági válság hatását nemcsak Európában, hanem azon kívül is érzékeljük, a válság rányomja bélyegét az érintett államok belpolitikájára és nemzetközi kapcsolataira. Az Egyesült Államok meghatározó tényező marad 2012-ben, még akkor is, ha ezt néhányan vitatják. A BRIC államok kimagasló mutatóik ellenére sem vonhatják ki magukat a válság hatása alól. 2012-ben az Egyesült Államok új védelmi stratégiát adott ki, amelyben egyértelműen kimutathatók a háborúk következményei. Az Al Kaida terrorszervezet ugyan jelentősen meggyengült, de a dzsihádizmussal továbbra is számolni kell, főként a válságkörzetekben. ______________ The year 2012 will probably not bring radical changes in the global economy and world policy. However, one should count on surprises. The results of the economic crisis are felt not only in Europe but outside Europe as well and it will have an effect on the domestic politics and on the international connections of the respective countries. The United States will remain a determinant factor in 2012 as well, although even if some dispute this observation. The BRIC states, in spite of theirs outstanding economic achievements, cannot avoid the detrimental effects of the crisis. As for security policy, the USA delivered a new defence strategy in 2012 that summarises the consequences of the wars. Although Al-Qaida lost its strength remarkably, one has to count on jihadism mainly in crisis areas.

A hatalmi viszonyok a világgazdaság és a katonai szektor a XXI. században = Power relations in the world economy and the military sector in 21st century

A bipoláris világrendszer megszűnése a XX. század utolsó évtizedében új helyzetet teremtett a globális politikai és gazdasági viszonyokban, ugyanakkor nem mellékesen a hadiiparban is. A szerző, szem előtt tartva a hatalmi viszonyok jövőbeli elkerülhetetlen átrendeződését, elsősorban a katonai szektor előtt álló, a XXI. századra előrevetíthető kihívásokat, lehetőségeket, a szektor jövőbeli pályáját tekinti át. A hadiiparral kapcsolatban indokolt a hidegháború utáni világ fegyverkezési helyzetének, fegyveres erőinek számbavétele csakúgy, mint a releváns elméleti keretek ismertetése, továbbá a fontos globális szereplők biztonságpolitikájának vizsgálata. A katonai szektor jelenének és jövőjének alapos elemzése nem nélkülözheti a katonai kiadások jelenlegi – a világgazdasági válság által befolyásolt – és a következő évtizedekben várható alakulásának vizsgálatát. Végül, de nem utolsó sorban a szerző áttekinti a XXI. századi haditechnikai forradalom már most látható és a jövőben valószínűsíthető vívmányait, a fontosabb haditechnikai tendenciákat, illetve elemzi a nemzetközi fegyverpiac helyzetét. __________________ The end of the Cold War led to a new situation in global political and economic affairs, as well as in the military sector. The author, taking into consideration the inevitable future power shifts, provides an overview of the challenges, possibilities and future paths of the military sector. Relevant issues include assessing the arms and armed forces of the post-Cold War era, as well as the analysis of theoretical frameworks and the security policies of the important global actors. Understanding the present and the future of the military sector is not possible without the thorough analysis of military expenditures and their likely future trends. The author also overviews the outcomes of the 21st century revolution in military technology and analyses the global arms market.

A mérsékelt iszlamista mozgalmak szerepe az "arab tavaszt" követő politikai átmenetben (The Role of Moderate Islamist Movements in the Political Transition Following the Arab Spring)

Up to January 2011 authoritarian political regimes in the Middle East had widely been considered stable due to the armed forces, the underdeveloped political institutions, the economic embeddedness of the regimes, the neo-patrimonial structure of the Arab societies and, eventually the characteristics of Islam. Middle Eastern political systems are often considered to belong to a special sub-group of non-democratic regimes called “liberalized autocracies”. The 2011 events show that there is a new, as yet non-defined political structure emerging. Although there are different interpretations of the developments, there is a consensus on the determinant role of the Islamist organizations in the development of the new political structure. The results of the Egyptian and Tunisian parliamentary elections show that the secular political parties could not attract the public, while in Tunisia the long forbidden Hizb an-Nahda could form a government. In Egypt Hizb al-Hurriya established by the Muslim Brotherhood in 2011 won almost half of the parliamentary mandates, and to a great surprise, the Salafi Hizb an-Nour also received 24.3% of the votes. On the basis of the above developments the thesis of the Islamist re-organization of the Middle East, i.e. of a new wave of Islamism was elaborated, according to which the main political winners of the revolts in the Arab countries are the Islamist organizations, which could step in and fill in the political vacuum. While some speak of an Islamist autumn or Islamist winter as the result of the Arab Spring, others prefer the term Islamic revolutions.

Aszimmetriák az Európai Unión belül (Assimetries within the European Union)

A centrum-periféria kapcsolatok elemzése az Európai Unióra is kiterjeszthető. Az integrációs folyamatban jól elemezhetőek a bourdeiu-i tőkeformák, ezek egymásra történő átváltása, a gazdasági és politikai aszimmetriák kölcsönhatása. E kölcsönös kapcsolatokban továbbra is a gazdasági viszonyok meghatározottsága érvényesül. A világgazdasági válság felszínre hozta a történelmi aszimmetriákat, amelyeket a korábbi neoliberális politikák tovább mélyítettek. Az Unión belüli periferális térségekre a válság különbözőképpen hatott. E hatások semlegesítésére többnyire a megszorító gazdaságpolitikákat alkalmazzák. Továbbra is hiányzik azonban egy, a minőségi s nem mennyiségi szempontokat hangsúlyozó fejlesztési politika. Egy ilyen megközelítés a strukturális, intézményi vonatkozásokat erősítené, s ezzel járulna hozzá a periféria termelési, forgalmi, elosztási képességeinek fokozásához. _____ Analysis of centre-periphery relations can be extended to the European Union as well. The capital forms by Bourdieu, their inter-changeability, mutual effects of economic and political asymmetries could be analysed well in the integration process. In these mutual relations economic relations still play the dominant role. The global economic crisis has brought to the surface historical asymmetries, further aggravated by earlier neo-liberal economic policies. Peripheral regions within the Union have been affected in different ways. In order to neutralise these effects austerity measure have been implemented. However, a development policy, emphasising quality and not only quantitative aspects, is still missing. Such an approach would strengthen structural and institutional elements, further enhancing production, trade, and distribution capabilities of the periphery.

International environmental and development policy cooperation and the transition process of the Central and Eastern European countries

The political and economic changes in countries of the Central and Eastern European region during the recent two decades had significant implications on their participation in international environmental policy-making. These changes were motivated by the changing international political priorities and economic interests, realization of their part in the "common but differentiated responsibility" for the global environmental processes and the relatively modest capacities for international development cooperation. The situation of these countries was acknowledged by the international community by granting specific provisions to these "economies in transition" in international environmental policy mechanisms. In spite of the rapidly diverging external relations of the various groups of these countries, to some extent and in different forms the transition phase is still prevailing and has its effect on the ongoing international environmental negotiations. The paper describes the background of these changes, demonstrates the specific provisions for these countries that made possible their participation in the common efforts to tackle the emerging global and regional environmental problems by acceding to the relevant international mechanisms.

The threat of "currency wars": A European perspective

The ‘currency war’, as it has become known, has three aspects: 1) the inflexible pegs of undervalued currencies; 2) recent attempts by floating exchange-rate countries to resist currency appreciation; 3) quantitative easing. Europe should primarily be concerned about the first issue, which relates to the renewed debate about the international monetary system. The attempts of floating exchange-rate countries to resist currency appreciation are generally justified while China retains a peg. Quantitative easing cannot be deemed a ‘beggar-thy-neighbour’ policy as long as the Fed’s policy is geared towards price stability. Current US inflationary expectations are at historically low levels. Central banks should come to an agreement about the definition of price stability at a time of deflationary pressures. The euro’s exchange rate has not been greatly impacted by the recent currency war; the euro continues to be overvalued, but less than before.

Aid Allocation of the Emerging Central and Eastern European Donors

The paper examines the main characteristics of the (re)emerging foreign aid policies of the Visegrád countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia), concentrating on the allocation of their aid resources. We adopt an econometric approach, similar to the ones used in the literature for analyzing the aid allocation of the OECD DAC donors. Using this approach, we examine the various factors that influence aid allocation of the Visegrád countries, using data for the years between 2001 and 2008. Our most important conclusion is that the amount of aid a partner county gets from the four emerging donors is not influenced by the level of poverty or the previous performance (measured by the level of economic growth or the quality of institutions) of the recipients. The main determining factor seems to be geographic proximity, as countries in the Western-Balkans and the Post-Soviet region receive much more aid from the Visegrád countries than other recipients. Historical ties (pre-1989 development relations) and international obligations in the case of Afghanistan and Iraq are also found to be significant explanatory factors. This allocation is in line with the foreign political and economic interests of these new donors. While there are clear similarities between the four donors, the paper also identifies some individual country characteristics.

Transition and Foreign Aid Policies in the Visegrád Countries: A Path Dependant Approach

The paper argues that the current emerging international development policies of the Visegrád (V4) countries are heavily influenced by the certain aspects of the communist past and the transition process. Due to these influences, the V4 countries have difficulties in adapting the foreign aid practices of Western donors and this leads to the emergence of a unique Central and Eastern European development cooperation model. As an analytical background, the paper builds on the path dependency theory of transition. A certain degree of path dependence is clearly visible in V4 foreign aid policies, and the paper analyzes some aspects of this phenomenon: how these new emerging foreign aid donors select their partner countries, how much they spend on aid, how they formulate their aid delivery policies and institutions and what role the non state actors play. The main conclusions of the paper are that the legacies of the communist past have a clear influence and the V4 countries still have a long way to go in adapting their aid policies to international requirements.

State Fragility and International Development Cooperation

Over the past few years addressing state fragility in the third world has become an important priority in international development cooperation. However, it seems that the international donor community has so far not been able to develop adequate instruments for dealing with the problems posed by state failure. We see two reasons for this: (i) there is growing recognition within the donor community that the lack of absorptive capacity, or bad economic policies in the partner country can actually make aid counterproductive, even harmful; and (ii) it is very difficult to manage effective development cooperation with weak governments. Channelling aid through NGOs, or giving limited aid in the form of capacity-building is clearly not sufficient to solve the problems fragile states face.

A felemelkedés mátrixa. Brazília a Lula-érában (Brazil during Lula era)

Az elmúlt évtizedben a nemzetközi kapcsolatok és a nemzetközi politikai gazdaságtan szakirodalmában is intenzív figyelem övezte az ún. feltörekvő gazdaságokat, közöttük Brazíliát. Luiz Inácio „Lula” da Silva két elnöki ciklusában (2003–2011) a feltörekvő piacok globális pozíciónyerése, a brazil külpolitika aktivizálódása és a brazil gazdaság kiemelkedő teljesítménye új koordinátarendszerbe helyezte a dél-amerikai óriást. A tanulmány a Lula-éra politikai és gazdasági teljesítményét foglalja össze: állami, regionális és globális szinten vizsgálja a dinamikus brazil fejlődés elmúlt évtizedét. / === / Since the millennium the literature on international relations and international political economy has been focusing on so-called emerging countries. This trend has brought unexpected and rarely experienced attention to the Latin American region, especially to Brazil. During Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva's presidencies (2003–2011) the global high position of emerging markets, the activity of Brazilian foreign policy and the outstanding achievements of the Brazilian economy placed the South American giant into a new frame of reference. The study sums up the political and economic performance of the Lula era: examines the past decade of dynamic Brazilian development at national, regional and global level.

International ethics and globalization

In the inherently anarchic international system the validity of moral principles is weakening. To overcome anarchy global governance is needed. It means efficient international institutions, but also pressures from the global civil society and the self-regulation of business. Multinational firms have the duty of cooperating in governance systems. They also have the duty of reconciling in their activity the two, equally legitimate claims of universalism and cultural relativism; i.e., applying universal moral principles and respecting local moral norms. Finally, multinationals must be guided by the principle of enhanced responsibility. However, although globalizing efforts are important in overcoming international anarchy and coordinating the protection of global commons, strong arguments support the notion that economic globalization does not promote sustainable development. Some form of localization of the economy is certainly needed. The challenge is to find a way towards more global governance with less economic globalization.