Islamist movements at crossroads: the choice between ideology and context-driven approach to politics. Case study on the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan

The aim of the paper is to analyse the ongoing transformation process within the Islamist movements using the example of the moderate Islamic Action Front party in Jordan. The dilemma of participation in the 2010 general elections raised tensions between the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan and its political wing, the Islamic Action Front, and between doves and hawks of the same organizations. Internal debate on the future has started recently among different groups within the Islamist movement in Jordan. The research is based on the author‘s recent field experience in Jordan (April–July 2010, Andrew W. Mellon Fellowship at the American Centre of Oriental Research, Amman, Jordan). The author also conducted research in Syria, Lebanon, Palestine and Egypt, where several interviews were carried out with leading and lower level Islamist politicians. The dynamic changes within Islamic Action Front Party in Jordan and its relation with the regime has been used as reference point. The main question of the research was aa how the changing political and regional context shapes decisions of the Islamist with special attention to the acceptance of democratic values and human rights, political participation, and the meanings of Islamic values in the 21st century, possible cooperation with secular parties/movements/the regime.

A túl- és az alulképzés bérhozama 25 európai országban (Returns for over-education and under-education for 25 European countries)

A tanulmányban 25 ország, kétezres évek közepi állapotot tükröző, reprezentatív keresztmetszeti mintáin egyrészt a Duncan-Hoffman-féle modellre támaszkodva megvizsgáljuk, hogy adatbázisunk milyen mértékben tükrözi az illeszkedés bérhozamával foglalkozó irodalom legfontosabb empirikus következtetéseit, másrészt - a Hartog- Oosterbeek-szerzőpáros által javasolt statisztikai próbák segítségével - azt elemezzük, hogy a becslések eredményei alapján mit mondhatunk Mincer emberitőke-, valamint Thurow állásversenymodelljének érvényességéről. Heckman szelekciós torzítást kiküszöbölő becslőfüggvényén alapuló eredményeink jórészt megerősítik az irodalomban vázolt legfontosabb empirikus sajátosságokat, ugyanakkor a statisztikai próbák az országok többségére nézve cáfolják mind az emberi tőke, mind az állásverseny modelljének empirikus érvényességét. / === / Using the Duncan–Hoffman model, the paper estimates returns for educational mismatch using comparable micro data for 25 European countries. The aim is to gauge the extent to which the main empirical regularities shown in other papers on the subject are confirmed by this data base. Based on tests proposed by Hartog and Oosterbeek, the author also considers whether the observed empirical patterns accord with the Mincerian basic human-capital model and Thurow's job-competition model. Heckman's sample-selection estimator shows the returns to be fairly consistent with those found in the literature; the job-competition model and the Mincerian human-capital model can be rejected for most countries.