Analyzing interrelated stochastic trend and seasonality on the example of energy trading data

The correct modelling of long- and short-term seasonality is a very interesting issue. The choice between the deterministic and stochastic modelling of trend and seasonality and their implications are as relevant as the case of deterministic and stochastic trends itself. The study considers the special case when the stochastic trend and seasonality do not evolve independently and the usual differencing filters do not apply. The results are applied to the day-ahead (spot) trading data of some main European energy exchanges (power and natural gas).

Analyzing interrelated stochastic trend and seasonality on the example of energy trading data

The correct modelling of long- and short-term seasonality is a very interesting issue. The choice between the deterministic and stochastic modelling of trend and seasonality and their implications are as relevant as the case of deterministic and stochastic trends itself. The study considers the special case when the stochastic trend and seasonality do not evolve independently and the usual differencing filters do not apply. The results are applied to the day-ahead (spot) trading data of some main European energy exchanges (power and natural gas).

Chaos Theory and Socio-Economic Renewal in Hungary

We utilised methods of chaos theory that were originally used in a 1990’s study to analyse the behaviour of various Hungarian socio-economic macro indicators, both historically and their expected behaviour in the future. In this study, we present the method adapted to PC and the behaviour of the selected macro indicators. We characterize the pathways our society and economy has experienced and where they are heading to into the future by the means of these indicators. Comparing the present results of analysis with the results twenty years ago (when today’s present was the future) we came to the conclusion that most of the indicators became less chaotic, thus the socio-economic courses were getting more stable over the past two decades. We conclude that the opportunity to change them is slowly diminishing, it will be more and more difficult to renew the Hungarian socio-economic indicators, and to turn the processes to more desirable courses. Recommendations for change interventions are then provided.

SME Policy and Competitiveness in Hungary

Small and medium-sized (SMEs) enterprises in Hungary account for 99.9% of all enterprises and for more than two thirds of employment. Since transformation started in 1989 they have been the only net makers of employment. In spite of such remarkable importance, results have been modest compared to the amount of Hungarian and foreign, mostly EU resources poured into the sector. Less than a sixth of SMEs are fast-growing and only a tiny minority of SMEs make use of bank credit. According to various indicators and in spite of bright spots, the SMEs context is problematic and SMEs features are often unfavourable and hardly competitive. In recent years the goal of upgrading SMEs and strengthening their contribution to the economy has acquired central position among policy goals and activity. Although progress has been made, the results are weak and in some cases drawbacks have happened. The paper starts from analysing the SMEs situation, reviews the main features of the recently implemented policy strategies, assesses whether these strategies are appropriate to address the situation, including the effects of the domestic and international crises, and considers whether the targets pursued are realistic and important, and the instruments considered in line with the targets