Az abduktív menedzsmenttől a tudáskormányzásig = From abductive management to knowledge governance

Hogyan juthat az ember helyes döntésekig egy adott területre (mikroverzumra) vonatkozó mély, belsővé tett tudás birtokában anélkül, hogy következtetne? Az abduktivitás fogalmának körüljárása után öt hüvelykujjszabályt fogalmaz meg a szerző az abdukció működéséről, majd összekapcsolja azt a vezetői munkával, tudáskormányzási kontextusban. Ebből kiindulva a globális munkatérelmélet (Global Workspace Theory) alkalmazásával a vezetők vagy az organizmusként felfogott szervezetek abduktív kapacitásának fejlesztési lehetőségeit vizsgálja. Befejezésül egy hatlépéses, a szervezeti szintű abduktivitásra rákérdező speciális tudásaudit-módszertan rövid kifejtésére vállalkozik, két esettanulmány vázlatos bemutatásával. _____ How to make right decisions without any inferences, thanks to interiorized, deep knowledge on the given field (micro verse)? After defining the concept of abductivity, the author presents five thumbnail-like rules about the nature of abductivity, combining it with leadership aspects and knowledge governance approach. He introduces a method supporting the development of abductive capability of a leader or an organization as a whole, using the Global Works pace Theory. Finally, the author tries to briefly formulate six steps of an organization-level knowledge governance audit framework, illustrating its relevance with two short case studies.

Anatomy and lessons of the global financial crisis. Is US consumption financed by Chinese savings?

Savings and investments in the American money market by emerging countries, primarily China, financed the excessive consumption of the United States in the early 2000s, which indirectly led to a global financial crisis. The crisis started from the real estate mortgage market. Such balance disrupting processes began on the American financial market which contradicted all previously known equilibrium theories of every school of economics. Economics has yet to come up with models or empirical theories for this new disequilibrium. This is why the outbreak of the crisis could not be prevented or at least predicted. The question is, to what extent can existing market theories, calculation methods and the latest financial products be held responsible for the new situation. This paper studies the influence of the efficient market and modern portfolio theory, as well as Li’s copula function on the American investment market. Naturally, the issues of moral risks and greed, credit ratings and shareholder control, limited liability and market regulations are aspects, which cannot be ignored. In summary, the author outlines the potential alternative measures that could be applied to prevent a new crisis, defines the new directions of economic research and draws the conclusion for the Hungarian economic policy.

Climate change in game theory context

The aim of this paper is to survey the game theory modelling of the behaviour of global players in mitigation and adaptation related to climate change. Three main fields are applied for the specific aspects of temperature rise: behaviour games, CPR problem and negotiation games. The game theory instruments are useful in analyzing strategies in uncertain circumstances, such as the occurrence and impacts of climate change. To analyze the international players’ relations, actions, attitude toward carbon emission, negotiation power and motives, several games are applied for the climate change in this paper. The solution is surveyed, too, for externality problem.

Climate change in game theory

The study provides an overview of the application possibilities of game theory to climate change. The characteristics of games are adapted to the topics of climate and carbon. The importance of uncertainty, probability, marginal value of adaptation, common pool resources, etc. are tailored to the context of international relations and the challenge of global warming.

Carbon pricing: theory and practice

Carbon pricing policy is a fundamental humanly devised theoretical and practical cornerstone in the fight against climate change. It involves short term and long term policies, theoretical and practical considerations. A quantitative global stabilisation target range for the stock of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is needed, because it is an important and useful foundation in the shaping of a comprehensive climate pricing policy. A global stabilisation target range is obviously a long term policy to control climate change and events ensuing excessive increase in temperature. Setting long term objectives in the fight against climate change are substantial in avoiding catastrophic consequences therefore short term policies, which aim advances in emission reductions, have to be consistent with the pre-defined long term stabilisation goals. Short term policy reaction means using price-driven instruments like taxes and tradable quotas. These instruments allow broad flexibility in the parameters of emission reduction, and provide opportunities and incentives wherewith the cost of mitigation and abatement can be kept down. Taxes and tradable quotas give the flexibility in how, where and when emission reduction can be accomplished thereby reaching agreements between states and companies may result an appropriate and environment-conscious emission scheme, that can fit into the long term objectives.

A földrajzi távolság, a kulturális hasonlóság és a szabadkereskedelem hatása a borkereskedelemre = Effects on the global wine trade of geographical distance, cultural and linguistic similarity, and free trade

A globalizálódó világgazdaságban a vezető bortermelő országok egyre jelentősebb borkereskedelmet bonyolítanak le egymás között. Míg Európában a fogyasztók egyre kevesebb bort vásárolnak, addig Amerikában és Ázsiában a bor iránti kereslet folyamatosan bővül: a borkereskedelem földrajzi átrendeződése zajlik. A kulturális hasonlóság és a földrajzi távolság kereskedelemre gyakorolt hatását gyakran a kereskedelemelméletek gravitációs modelljével elemzik. E tanulmány azt vizsgálja, hogy a fő borexportáló országok közötti földrajzi távolság, kulturális hasonlóság és szabadkereskedelem milyen hatással van a nemzetközi borkereskedelemre, annak költségeire. A regressziós becslés eredményei alátámasztják, hogy a borkereskedelem költségei alacsonyabbak, ha a kereskedelmi partnerek kulturálisan hasonlók, földrajzilag közel helyezkednek el egymáshoz, vagy van tengeri kikötőjük, tagjai a WTO-nak, illetve ha kötöttek egymással regionális kereskedelmi megállapodást. Ezenkívül megállapítható, hogy az angolszász, a latin-amerikai és az európai kulturális klaszterek elsősorban egymással kereskednek. A kutatás számos kulturális változó alkalmazásával és több ökonometriai modell, illetve becslési eljárás nagymintás tesztelésével gazdagítja a szakirodalmat. ____ In a globalizing world, major wine-producing countries export considerable quantities to the global wine market and turn over a notable trade, but in what happens European wine regions differ markedly from the New World. Here major wine producers suffered a remarkable fall in domestic wine consumption in recent decades, while New World wine producers increased their production potential and generated new foreign demand. The changes have been joined by geographical relocation of wine consumption and exports. The gravity equation can be derived from demand-side or supply-side theory-consistent estimation methods that suggest relationships between the size of the economies, geographical distances, cultural similarities, and size of their trade. The paper analyses the effects of cultural and geographical proximity, free trade, and linguistic similarity on bilateral trade in the main wine-producing countries, using a cross-section gravity model for 2012. The results suggest that larger countries export more wine, while transport costs rise in line with geographical distance and are higher for landlocked trading partners. Wine export costs are lower if trading partners are culturally similar, share a dominant religion, or are both WTO members with regional trade agreements. Anglo-Saxon, Germanic, Latin American and Latin European countries mainly trade wines within their groups. The paper looks to extend the number of trading partners, investigate the effect of language clusters, and confirm that the results are robust by different econometric methodologies.