A földrajzi távolság, a kulturális hasonlóság és a szabadkereskedelem hatása a borkereskedelemre = Effects on the global wine trade of geographical distance, cultural and linguistic similarity, and free trade

A globalizálódó világgazdaságban a vezető bortermelő országok egyre jelentősebb borkereskedelmet bonyolítanak le egymás között. Míg Európában a fogyasztók egyre kevesebb bort vásárolnak, addig Amerikában és Ázsiában a bor iránti kereslet folyamatosan bővül: a borkereskedelem földrajzi átrendeződése zajlik. A kulturális hasonlóság és a földrajzi távolság kereskedelemre gyakorolt hatását gyakran a kereskedelemelméletek gravitációs modelljével elemzik. E tanulmány azt vizsgálja, hogy a fő borexportáló országok közötti földrajzi távolság, kulturális hasonlóság és szabadkereskedelem milyen hatással van a nemzetközi borkereskedelemre, annak költségeire. A regressziós becslés eredményei alátámasztják, hogy a borkereskedelem költségei alacsonyabbak, ha a kereskedelmi partnerek kulturálisan hasonlók, földrajzilag közel helyezkednek el egymáshoz, vagy van tengeri kikötőjük, tagjai a WTO-nak, illetve ha kötöttek egymással regionális kereskedelmi megállapodást. Ezenkívül megállapítható, hogy az angolszász, a latin-amerikai és az európai kulturális klaszterek elsősorban egymással kereskednek. A kutatás számos kulturális változó alkalmazásával és több ökonometriai modell, illetve becslési eljárás nagymintás tesztelésével gazdagítja a szakirodalmat. ____ In a globalizing world, major wine-producing countries export considerable quantities to the global wine market and turn over a notable trade, but in what happens European wine regions differ markedly from the New World. Here major wine producers suffered a remarkable fall in domestic wine consumption in recent decades, while New World wine producers increased their production potential and generated new foreign demand. The changes have been joined by geographical relocation of wine consumption and exports. The gravity equation can be derived from demand-side or supply-side theory-consistent estimation methods that suggest relationships between the size of the economies, geographical distances, cultural similarities, and size of their trade. The paper analyses the effects of cultural and geographical proximity, free trade, and linguistic similarity on bilateral trade in the main wine-producing countries, using a cross-section gravity model for 2012. The results suggest that larger countries export more wine, while transport costs rise in line with geographical distance and are higher for landlocked trading partners. Wine export costs are lower if trading partners are culturally similar, share a dominant religion, or are both WTO members with regional trade agreements. Anglo-Saxon, Germanic, Latin American and Latin European countries mainly trade wines within their groups. The paper looks to extend the number of trading partners, investigate the effect of language clusters, and confirm that the results are robust by different econometric methodologies.

Investigating the effect of geographical distances and cultural proximity on the Hungarian wine trade

Wine is a very special product from an economic, cultural, and sociological point of view. Wine culture and wine trade play an important role in Hungary. The effect of cultural and geographical proximity on international trade has already been proven in the international trade literature. The size of bilateral trade flows between any two countries can be approximated by the gravity theory of trade. The gravity model provides empirical evidence of the relationship between the size of the economies, the distances between them, and their trade. This paper seeks to analyse the effect of cultural and geographical proximity on Hungary’s bilateral wine trade between 2000 and 2012, employing the gravity equation. The analysis is based on data from the World Bank WITS, WDI, as well as CEPII, and WTO databases. I apply OLS, Random Effects, Poisson, Pseudo-Poisson-Maximum-Likelihood and Heckman two stage estimators to calculate the gravity regression. The results show that in the case of Hungary, cultural similarity and trade liberalisation have a positive impact, while geographical distance, landlockedness, and contiguity have a negative impact on Hungarian wine exports.

Inventory investment and GDP characteristics in OECD countries

There are very few research studies on macroeconomic inventory behaviour of various countries. It is clear that macro inventories are the results of a large number of individual microdecisions. However, we believe that it is worth analysing how inventories develop in the individual countries and why we can see different tendencies. This paper is the newest piece in a series of studies on the above subject. We use the OECD database to analyse inventory trends between 1987 and 2004 in nine of the most developed economies of the world. Annual inventory investment data are used and their connections with other components of GDP expenditure (governmental and private consumption, investment in fixed assets and foreign trade balance as well as the annual growth rate of GDP) are examined by multi-variable statistical analysis. Conclusions include the steadily decreasing tendency of inventory fluctuations, the varying periods of higher and lower rates of inventory investments and the differences of main influencing factors by country.

Trading between perceived risks and benefits related to biosimilar biological treatment in Crohn’s disease; discrete choice experiment among gastroenterologists

Objective: The objective of the study is to explore preferences of gastroenterologists for biosimilar drugs in Crohn’s Disease and reveal trade-offs between the perceived risks and benefits related to biosimilar drugs. Method: Discrete choice experiment was carried out involving 51 Hungarian gastroenterologists in May, 2014. The following attributes were used to describe hypothetical choice sets: 1) type of the treatment (biosimilar/originator) 2) severity of disease 3) availability of continuous medicine supply 4) frequency of the efficacy check-ups. Multinomial logit model was used to differentiate between three attitude types: 1) always opting for the originator 2) willing to consider biosimilar for biological-naïve patients only 3) willing to consider biosimilar treatment for both types of patients. Conditional logit model was used to estimate the probabilities of choosing a given profile. Results: Men, senior consultants, working in IBD center and treating more patients are more likely to willing to consider biosimilar for biological-naïve patients only. Treatment type (originator/biosimilar) was the most important determinant of choice for patients already treated with biologicals, and the availability of continuous medicine supply in the case biological-naïve patients. The probabilities of choosing the biosimilar with all the benefits offered over the originator under current reimbursement conditions are 89% vs 11% for new patients, and 44% vs 56% for patients already treated with biological. Conclusions: Gastroenterologists were willing to trade between perceived risks and benefits of biosimilars. The continuous medical supply would be one of the major benefits of biosimilars. However, benefits offered in the scenarios do not compensate for the change from the originator to the biosimilar treatment of patients already treated with biologicals.