Seasonal dynamic pattern analysis in service of climate change research. A methodical case-study - monitoring and simulation based on an aquatic insect community

Our aim was to approach an important and well-investigable phenomenon – connected to a relatively simple but real field situation – in such a way, that the results of field observations could be directly comparable with the predictions of a simulation model-system which uses a simple mathematical apparatus and to simultaneously gain such a hypothesis-system, which creates the theoretical opportunity for a later experimental series of studies. As a phenomenon of the study, we chose the seasonal coenological changes of aquatic and semiaquatic Heteroptera community. Based on the observed data, we developed such an ecological model-system, which is suitable for generating realistic patterns highly resembling to the observed temporal patterns, and by the help of which predictions can be given to alternative situations of climatic circumstances not experienced before (e.g. climate changes), and furthermore; which can simulate experimental circumstances. The stable coenological state-plane, which was constructed based on the principle of indirect ordination is suitable for unified handling of data series of monitoring and simulation, and also fits for their comparison. On the state-plane, such deviations of empirical and model-generated data can be observed and analysed, which could otherwise remain hidden.

Zoocoenological state of microhabitats and its seasonal dynamics in an aquatic macroinvertebrate assembly (Hydrobiological case studies on lake Balaton, No. 1.)

In the years 2002, 2003 and 2004 we collected samples of macroinvertebrates on a total of 36 occasions in Badacsony bay, in areas of open water (in the years 2003 and 2004 reed-grassy) as well as populated by reed (Phragmites australis) and cattail (Typha angustifolia). Samples were taken using a stiff hand net. The sampling site includes three microhabitats differentiated only by the aquatic plants inhabiting these areas. Our data was gathered from processing 208 individual samples. The quantity of macroinvertebrates is represented by biovolume value based on volume estimates. We can identify taxa in abundant numbers found in all water types and ooze; as well as groups associated with individual microhabitats with various aquatic plants. We can observe a notable difference between the years in the volume of invertebrate macrofauna caused by the drop of water level, and the multiplication of submerged macrophytes. There are smaller differences between the samples taken in reeds and cattail stands. In the second half of 2003 – which was a year of drought – the Najas marina appeared in open waters and allowed to support larger quantities of macroinvertebrates. In 2004 with higher water levels, the Potamogeton perfoliatus occurring in the same area has had an even more significant effect. This type of reed-grass may support the most macroinvertebrates during the summer. From the aspect of diversity relations we may suspect different characteristics. The reeds sampling site proved to be the richest, while the cattail microhabitat is close behind, open water (with submerged macrophytes) is the least diverse microhabitat.