Economics of the new member states: A post-crisis perspective

This essay addresses four major issues confronting the Central and Eastern European new members of the European Union in the decade to come. First: what to think of the financial meltdown of 2008-2009. Second, what have they learned from the tremors, having shaken the previous star performers of the EU? Third we ask if we can expect a return to ‘normalcy' as forecast by most models of financial rating agencies and international financial institutions? Fourth the question is raised what did the new members benefit from their EU membership? Some conclusions on the future of EU reforms and policies close the overview.

Az MTA KRTK KTI munkaerő-piaci előrejelző rendszere = The Institute of Economics labour-market forecasting system

Ebben a cikkben bemutatjuk az MTA KRTK KTI munkaerő-piaci előrejelző rendszerének nagy léptékű szerkezetét, a szerkezet kialakítása során követett főbb elveket. Ismertetjük a hazai gyakorlatban egyedülállóan összetett és széles körű adatrendszert, amelyen a becslést és az előrejelzést elvégeztük. Röviden kitérünk az ágazati GDP előrejelzésére, a modell keresleti és kínálati oldalának működésére, valamint a kereslet és kínálat közötti eltérések dinamikájának vizsgálatára. ______ The article presents the overall structure, and main principles followed in devising the structure, of the labour-market forecasting system developed by the Institute of Economics of the Research Centre for Economic and Regional Studies of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (MTA KRTK KTI). The authors present the broad, comprehensive data system unprecedented in Hungarian practice, from which the estimate and forecast are made. The article diverges briefly onto the forecasting of branch GDP, the mode of operation of the supply and demand sides of the model, and examination of the dynamics of discrepancies between supply and demand.

A Note on The Weak Sequential Core of Dynamic TU Games

This paper addresses a problem with an argument in Kranich, Perea, and Peters (2005) supporting their definition of the Weak Sequential Core and their characterization result. We also provide the remedy, a modification of the definition, to rescue the characterization.

Price of unsustainability. Economic impacts of climate change

Global problems, rapid and massive regional changes in the 21st century call for genuine long-term, awareness, planning and well focused actions from both national governments and international organizations. This book wishes to contribute to building an innovative path of strategic views in handling the diverse challenges, and more emphatically, the economic impacts of climate change. Although the contributors of this volume represent several approaches, they all rely on some common grounds such as the costbenefit analysis of mitigation and adaptation, and on the need to present an in-depth theoretical and practical dimension. The research accounted for in this book tried to integrate and confront various types of economics approaches and methods, as well as knowledge from game theory to country surveys, from agricultural adaptation to weather bonds, from green tax to historical experience of human adaptation. The various themes and points of views do deserve the attention of the serious academic reader interested in the economics of climate change. We hope to enhance the spread of good solutions resulting from world wide disputes and tested strategic decisions. WAKE UP! It is not just the polar bears' habitat that is endangered, but the entire human form of life.

Szimulációk és érzékenységvizsgálatok a magyar gazdaság egy középméretű makromodelljével = Simulations and sensitivity analyses with a medium-sized macro model of the Hungarian economy

A tanulmányban a Pénzügyminisztérium gazdaságpolitikai főosztálya és az MTA Közgazdaságtudományi Intézete által kifejlesztett középméretű negyedéves makrogazdasági modell segítségével elemezzük a magyar gazdaság legfontosabb mechanizmusait. A modellezés során követett alapelvek és a modell blokkjainak bemutatása után egy forgatókönyv-elemzés keretében vizsgáljuk a makrogazdasági és költségvetési folyamatokat befolyásoló főbb faktorok hatásait. A - tágan értelmezett - "bizonytalansági tényezőket" három csoportba soroljuk: megkülönböztetjük a külső környezet (például árfolyam) változását, a gazdasági szereplők viselkedésében rejlő bizonytalanságokat (például a bérigazodás sebességének vagy a fogyasztássimítás mértékének bizonytalanságát), valamint a gazdaságpolitikai lépéseket (például állami bérek emelését). Megmutatjuk, hogy e kockázatok makrokövetkezményei nem függetlenek egymástól, például egy árfolyamváltozás hatását befolyásolja a bérigazodás sebessége. ______ This paper analyses the most important mechanisms of the Hungarian economy using a medium-sized quarterly macroeconomic model developed jointly by the Economic Policy Department of the Ministry of Finance and the Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. After introducing the fundamental principles of modelling and the building blocks of the model investigated, within a scenario analysis, the authors present the effects of the main factors behind the macroeconomic and budgetary processes. The sources of uncertainty - defined in a broad sense - are categorized in three groups: change in the external environment (e.g. the exchange rate), uncertainties in the behav-iour of economic agents (e.g. in speed of wage adjustment or extent of consumption smoothing), and economic policy decisions (e.g. the increase in public sector wages). The macroeconomic consequences of these uncertainties are shown not to be independent of each other. For instance, the effects of an exchange rate shock are influenced by the speed of wage adjustment.

Hiánygazdaság - többletgazdaság. Tanulmány a piac elméletéről - I. rész = Shortage economy surplus economy. A study on market theory I

A főáramlat közgazdászai elismerik, hogy a szocialista rendszert a krónikus hiány jellemezte, de úgy vélik, hogy a kapitalista rendszerben - kisebb vagy nagyobb ingadozások közepette - piaci egyensúly uralkodik. Ezzel szemben a tanulmány két piaci állapotot állít egymással szembe. Az egyikben dominálnak a túlkeresleti jelenségek, bár előfordulnak túlkínálati jelenségek is, ezt nevezi a szerző hiánygazdaságnak. A másikban dominálnak a túlkínálati jelenségek, bár előfordulnak túlkeresleti jelenségek is, amit a szerző többletgazdaságnak nevez. A hiánygazdaságot magyarázó tényezőket a szerző korábbi munkái írták le. A jelen tanulmány I. része azokat a mechanizmusokat mutatja be, amelyek a kapitalizmus keretei között létrehozzák a többletgazdaságot: a korlátozott verseny, a schumpeteri "teremtő rombolás", a vállalat törekvése biztonsági tartalékok kiépítésére és a növekvő skálahozadék. Foglalkozik azokkal a jelenségekkel, amelyek fékezik a kereslet és az árak alkalmazkodását. Külön fejezet tárgyalja a többlet mérésének (és ezzel szoros összefüggésben a fogalmak szigorú definícióinak) nehézségeit. ______ Mainstream economists recognize that the socialist system was marked by chronic shortage, but they consider that the capitalist system exhibits market equilibrium, give or take some greater or lesser fluctuations. This study, however, contrasts two market states. One is dominated by phenomena of excess demand, though instances of excess supply appear as well; this the author calls a shortage economy. The other is dominated by phenomena of excess supply, though instances of excess demand appear as well; this the author terms a surplus economy. The author has described in earlier works the factors explaining the shortage economy. Part I of the study presents the mechanisms generating a surplus economy under capitalism: imperfect competition, Schumpeterian "creative destruction" , the efforts of firms to build up safety reserves, and increasing economies of scale. It also covers phenomena that curb accommodation of demand and prices. Discussed in a separate chapter are the difficulties of measuring surplus (and closely tied with this, of strictly defining the concepts).

The financial stability and access to financing of SMEs in Hungary

The present study was prepared within the framework of cooperation between the Competitiveness Research Centre, operating within the Institute of Business Economics of Corvinus University of Budapest, and the National Association of Entrepreneurs, based on a commission from the latter. Th e goal of the study was to survey the self-financing capabilities and borrowing opportunities of majority Hungarian-owned small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and to identify potential problems. The results of the research revealed that the high proportion of owner’s equity in the financing structure is not due to difficulties with borrowing, but because enterprises that cover their fi nancing primarily from their own resources have other financing opportunities at their disposal. Although general satisfaction with banks shows a diminishing tendency, it can still be interpreted favourably. The majority of companies have not encountered serious borrowing difficulties. With regard to the system of competitive tenders, company managers have sensed some improvement, but general satisfaction is still lacking. Although the research results suggest that the primary obstacle to growth in 2013 was not the lack of credit or external funding, it is important to emphasize that start-ups, young enterprises and micro-enterprises, which struggle the most with financing worries, were not represented in the analysed database.

How much is corporate cash-pooling worth? Modelling and simulation

The paper analyzes a special corporate banking product, the so called cash-pool, which gained remarkable popularity in the recent years as firms try to centralize and manage their liquidity more efficiently. The novelty of this paper is the formalization of a valuation model which can serve as a basis for a Monte Carlo simulation to assess the most important benefits of the firms arising from the pooling of their cash holdings. The literature emphasizes several benefits of cash-pooling such as interest rate savings, economy of scale and reduced cash-flow volatility. The presented model focuses on the interest rate savings complemented with a new aspect: the reduced counterparty risk toward the bank. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the value of a cash-pool is higher in case of firms with large, diverse and volatile cash-flows having less access to the capital markets especially if the partner bank is risky and offers a high interest spread. It is also shown that cash-pooling is not the privilege of large multinational firms any more as the initial direct costs can be easily regained within a year even in the case of SMEs.