Seasonal dynamic pattern analysis in service of climate change research. A methodical case-study - monitoring and simulation based on an aquatic insect community

Our aim was to approach an important and well-investigable phenomenon – connected to a relatively simple but real field situation – in such a way, that the results of field observations could be directly comparable with the predictions of a simulation model-system which uses a simple mathematical apparatus and to simultaneously gain such a hypothesis-system, which creates the theoretical opportunity for a later experimental series of studies. As a phenomenon of the study, we chose the seasonal coenological changes of aquatic and semiaquatic Heteroptera community. Based on the observed data, we developed such an ecological model-system, which is suitable for generating realistic patterns highly resembling to the observed temporal patterns, and by the help of which predictions can be given to alternative situations of climatic circumstances not experienced before (e.g. climate changes), and furthermore; which can simulate experimental circumstances. The stable coenological state-plane, which was constructed based on the principle of indirect ordination is suitable for unified handling of data series of monitoring and simulation, and also fits for their comparison. On the state-plane, such deviations of empirical and model-generated data can be observed and analysed, which could otherwise remain hidden.

The calculation of dynamic ecological footprint on the basis of the dynamic input-output model

The Leontief input-output model is widely used to determine the ecological footprint of consumption in a region or a country. It is able to capture spillover environmental effects along the supply change, thus its popularity is increasing in ecology related economic research. These studies are static and the dynamic investigations are neglected. The dynamic Leontief model makes it possible to involve the capital and inventory investment in the footprint calculation that projects future growth of GDP and environmental impacts. We show a new calculation method to determine the effect of capital accumulation on ecological footprint. Keywords: Dynamic Leontief model, Dynamic ecological footprint, Environmental management, Allocation method

Long-term dynamic patterns and diversity of phytoplankton communities in a large eutrophic river (the case of River Danube, Hungary)

In this paper we present the composition, seasonal dynamics and fluctuations in diversity of the phytoplankton in the Danube River over 24 years. Weekly samplings were conducted at one section of the river at Göd, in the 1669 river kilometer segment. The change in the phytoplankton community structure was analyzed in relation of water temperature and discharge means. Our findings support the opinion that the Danube is very rich in species, although many of the species are rare and could be described only as coloring species. Results indicate trends in the phytoplankton abundance, which are only detectable in long-term studies. By the help of diversity indices we have observed an increase in the phytoplankton community diversity. With the relevant information, an explanation of the significant changes in diversity and richness was formed. Our goals were a construction of a solid database of the phytoplankton, examining the seasonal dynamics of the phytoplankton through a 24 year long study and to see the most important changing factors of the community. The results of this study are to assist and help future model developments to predict the phytoplankton seasonal dynamic patterns.